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Monthly Archives: March 2009

Is The Party Over For Stocks? Part 2

31 Tuesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, bear market, Bear Trap, bull market, Currency and Currencies, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, Economic Recovery, economic trends, follow the news, Gold Bullion, How To Invest, How To Make Money, inflation, Investing, investments, market crash, Markets, NASDQ, S&P 500, silver, stock market

≈ Comments Off on Is The Party Over For Stocks? Part 2

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Today was another example of hope and a prayer in the stock markets. Since the other day when we gapped down more of the “sheeple” jumped back into the market thinking, no hoping beyond hope that the “bottom” is in place. Today’s action on the charts was simply backfilling the gap from yesterday’s drop. Based on pure technical analysis this is what I see for tomorrow, we will have an attempt at breaking 7650 and if that is cleared then an attempt at 7700 on the down side 7560 if that is broken 7500 and if that goes then down to 7380. On a chart basis I’d say we have a lot more chance of an overall down day than up day. Of course this is all pedicated on no news coming out from G-20, Europe, or elsewhere. – Tomorrow we will have Part 3 of “Is The Party Over for Stocks?”. – Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:  Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

What Marks The Bottom? – Seeking Alpha

By: Kevin S. Price of  Interlake Capital

We’ve touched on this topic before, but with calls of “the bottom is in!” reverberating across Wall Street, we thought it might be time to revisit it.

What are the markers of durable troughs, often referred to as “bottoms,” in asset values?

There’s no failsafe sign, of course, and there’s no guarantee that this process will play out as its historical predecessors have. But if we could point to a single factor common to most long-term bottoms, it’s a sequence in which traders and investors move from hope to revulsion to indifference.

First you’ll hear expressions of hope that the bottom is in. We’ve certainly heard plenty of that over the last three weeks or so as stocks have lurched up from their March 9th lows.

Then you’ll hear expressions of revulsion against stocks, including the idea that investors might be better off avoiding them altogether in favor of “safer” assets such as bonds. As it happens, we saw just such an argument a few days ago from a well-known, highly-regarded analyst. Far from discouraging for equity investors, this is a sign that the revulsion stage is underway.

Ultimately, however, what we need to see is a grinding sense of indifference toward stocks. Partly reflected and partly driven by the media, investors will develop a sense that stocks just aren’t worth the effort. They’ll neither love ’em nor hate ’em. They’ll simply stop talking about them altogether. Under those circumstances, neither buyers nor sellers will have the itchy trigger fingers they’ve had over the last few months, and the buying and selling will happen quietly, off the front pages. Only then, we think, will the foundation be set for the next major bull run in equity values.

================================================

Why This Is Just Another Bear Market Rally -Seeking Alpha

By: Vinay Ayala of Bullish Bankers

The equity market has taken a turn for the better in the past couple of weeks, reversing losses for many investors who have ridden this market down. It has been a welcome change for investors as we bounce off lows and are beginning to put some faith behind equities again. The million dollar question: is this the turnaround we have all been looking for, or is this just another bear market rally?

In my opinion, this is just another bear market rally. Rallies of 5%+ in one day do not occur during bull markets, but they are very typical of bear markets and normally occur during bear market rallies. What has really changed fundamentally over the past few weeks in the macro-economy? To tell you the truth, not much.

It is my opinion that three things need to get better before we can consider ourselves to be out of this crisis: an improvement in the employment picture, more stable credit markets, and a somewhat stable housing market. Let’s look at how these criteria have changed over the past few weeks.

  1. Employment – Currently the unemployment rate stands at 8.1%, with estimates for the March unemployment number to be somewhere around 8.6%. Initial jobless claims went up for the week ending March 21st by 8,000, with a total of 5.56 million filing for continuing unemployment claims. These are still at 25+ year lows and have shown no sign of improving throughout this whole rally. Everyone is still expecting possible double digit unemployment, which will wreak havoc on consumer spending, since individuals will have no steady source of income. This could also lead to more and more defaults on loans, mortgages, and credit card payments; further deteriorating the state of the financial sector.
  2. Housing – The housing market has yet to reach a bottom! New home sales were up 4.7% in February, so a bottom must have been reached, right? Wrong. Housing prices fell 2.9 percent and inventories are still at extremely elevated levels at a 12.2 months supply. In a normal housing market there is only about 6 months of supply in the system, so for those that don’t think that housing can get worse, it can. There are still more sellers than buyers in the market. Home prices are down about 28% since the peak according to the Case-Shiller Index, but this number faces some more serious downward pressure as sellers are going to have to compromise to bring the market closer to equilibrium in order to reduce inventories. So unless we see a huge drop in prices in a very short amount of time, I am not ready to say that the housing market has bottomed. Until the housing market reaches equilibrium, I do not think we can see an economic recovery because of all the ties it has to other aspects of the economy, like credit.
  3. Credit – Conditions in the credit markets have not really improved throughout the rally. I think if there is one thing everyone has been adamant about, it is trying to revive the lending markets so that the economy can get going again. Companies need debt to fulfill short term working capital needs, and having access to liquid credit markets is essential for day to day operations. Since the beginning of March, the TED spread (the difference between the 3 month treasury note and 3 month LIBOR rate), which highlights credit risk within the lending markets, has gone up by almost 10%. This is indicating continued weakness in the short term credit markets, which must be corrected before we can see any type of recovery within the financial system.

Looking at the above factors it is clear that it has not been a broad based rally where we are seeing recovery in some of the most depressed asset classes, credit and housing. The fundamentals of the macro-economy have not gotten better and this really makes me doubt the sustainability of this rally, considering that unemployment is skyrocketing, the housing market is still in free-fall, and the credit markets have not had any marked improvement. Couple this with an increasing savings rate, a $13 trillion loss in household balance sheets (with another $6 trillion loss probably in 1Q09), the highest inventory-to-sales ratio (at about 1.8) and $1 trillion in excess capacity in the economy, we are likely going to see decreased consumer spending going forward. This is going to be the worst part of the recession for the consumer and the recovery still seems a few months away from a fundamental level.

All that being said, one thing that could keep the rally going is corporate earnings. As earnings season approaches in April, it should help paint a better picture of what we can expect going forward for the economy and the stock market. Hopefully earnings come in better than expected, but I am not convinced yet.

=========================================================

My Note: The current rally is a great big “Bear Trap” “Sheeple Beware! – More Tomorrow- jschulmansr

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================


Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

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The Party Is Over For Stocks

30 Monday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, DGZ, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, SWC, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on The Party Is Over For Stocks

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Looks like the party is over! Major follow thru selling today, the Dow currently down 280 points and below 7500 at 7492. The resistance at 8000 was just to much and I think we have put in the top of this Bear Market rally/correction. As I mentioned before a lot of foolish sheeple are going to be panicking very quickly. I have been telling you to buy Gold and Precious Metals for a long time now and today’s articles will give you some more good reasons you should listen. Silver currently is flashing a Big BUY signal and when everything is said and done, I believe Silver will well outperform Gold on a percentage basis. I am using this opportunity to continue loading up on producers and I’m telling you, (CDE) Couer D’Alene Mines under a buck ($1) is looking mighty good! As always consult your financial advisor, read the prospectus, and do your due diligence before making any investments. Don’t be a “sheeple”. I also do my trend analysis thru INO.com and below is why… Good Investing! – jschulmansr – Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

 

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

As History Repeats Itself, Time to Buy Gold and Silver – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

 

 History does not repeat but it does rhyme, said Mark Twain. For an excellent

assessment of what a stock market crash can mean for the future we have only to turn to The Great Crash 1929 by Professor JK Galbraith.

It is all there, a complete repeat of the run up to the stock market crash of last autumn, and its consequences – thus far. There was the Florida real estate crash as a prelude to the main act, and then a 50 per cent plunge in the Dow Jones in late 1929, just like the one in 2008.

March rally

March 1930 saw a huge rally in stock prices. March 2009 has just given us the biggest rally since 1974 (a previous market crash year). But hold on a minute, what does JK Galbraith tell us happened next?

In 1930 stocks weakened a little in April and then moved sideways into June when they plunged down again. Then they continued falling month after month for the next two years.

Our governments know this, and it does help explain the rush to push money into the economy by means fair and uncertain. The aim is clearly to break the cycle and avoid the down trend.

But will it be successful? Nobody really knows. Is it worth trying? Yes, but the evidence so far is that the Great Recession is tracking a course that is out-of-control, or rather following a pattern last seen in the 1930s.

Perhaps we should be more optimistic, and think that something more like the 1970s ‘lost decade’ is upon us. 1974 was a terrible year for global stock markets and was followed by stagflation – a mixture of low growth and high inflation.

Inflation

Indeed, inflation is the only way to bail out an economy consumed by debt. In the 1930s debt deflation was allowed to take its disastrous course with public spending cuts and trade barriers making an already deteriorating cycle considerably worse.

However, anybody who has just bought into the stock market rally should really think about selling and staying out for a while. This is a time to park money in gold and silver and even exit cash, although you might care to note that cash and precious metals were the best performing asset class of the 70s, while in the 30s gold was the real star.

 

=========================================================

Silver is Quietly Flashing a Buy Signal, But Buyer Beware- Seeking Alpha

By: Harold Goodman

Anyone who follows the silver market knows that the fundamentals of silver are incredibly strong, long term. Since most silver is mined as a byproduct of base metal mining, and base metal prices are currently depressed by the global recession, inventories of base metals are high, and silver supply is shrinking. Many less profitable mines are closing down. Silver recently went into backwardation, which could indicate delivery problems are imminent in the physical silver market.

The US government currently holds no silver bullion at all, down from five billion ounces immediately after WWII. Above ground silver supplies are currently estimated to be one billion ounces, compared to five billion ounces of gold. This includes silver in tableware, jewelry, and other sources that will never be available on the open market.

For the purposes of this analysis, I will use SLV, the silver ETF, because it is convenient and easy to chart, but keep in mind, this is paper silver, not bullion, and its investment characteristics are completely different. It is supposed to be backed by silver bullion, but if you read the fine print, it may also hold futures, cash, and is allocated to custodians and sub-custodians which cannot be audited. It is designed to track the spot price of silver, but when the spot price of silver falls significantly below the mean, you will find that physical silver dealers will increase their premium over spot rather than drop the price. Holders of SLV cannot demand delivery of the underlying physical silver bullion bars.

On August 25th, 2008 the 50 day moving average of SLV crossed and fell below the 200 day moving average. This is know by technical analysts as the “death cross” and signifies a coming fall in price. SLV closed that day at $13.33


On October 27th, the price of SLV closed at $8.85 during the panic selling of autumn 2008, a 33.6% drop in two months.

Last Friday, March 27th, 2009, for the first time since August 25th, the 50 day moving average of SLV crossed back above the 200 day MA, which could signal a coming runup in price. SLV closed at $13.15


I don’t know what term the technical analysts use for that, so I will call it the “life cross” until someone tells me the correct term.

If SLV’s 50 day MA stays above the 200 day MA, rather than bouncing off it, this is an extremely bullish sign for SLV, and astute investors should be keeping a close eye on it for the next week. But here’s the rub.

Silver is the most highly manipulated market in existence, bar none, and the price of silver has been suppressed for many years. Gold is second to silver. The reason that silver is first apparently is that it is a much smaller market than gold, and can be manipulated using a much smaller number of silver futures contracts. Gold prices can be suppressed both by shorting gold futures, and by actual bullion sales by central banks, but these sales are becoming fewer and smaller as central bank gold reserves are reportedly running low, and even those nations with ample supplies of bullion won’t be willing to part with it at the suppressed price, now that governments worldwide are printing money like it’s going out of style.

The best body of work on silver manipulation by far is the writings of Ted Butler, available here.

Check out his articles on February 8, 2009 and March 16, 2009.

Short term traders like to follow the 12 day EMA and 26 day EMA.

On July 29th, 2008 the 12 day EMA of SLV crossed below the 26 day EMA, signaling a coming drop in price. SLV closed that day at $17.19 Three months later, SLV hit its bottom of $8.85 on October 27th , a drop of 48.4% in three months.

On December 12th, 2008 the 12 day EMA of SLV crossed back above the 26 day EMA, signaling a coming runup in price, and has been above it ever since. SLV closed that day at $10.14

On February 23rd, 2009 SLV peaked out at $14.34, an increase of 41.4% in 2 ½ months.

On March 17th, 2009 the 12 day EMA of SLV bounced off the 26 day EMA, and has remained above it ever since, a bullish sign. SLV closed that day at $12.60, and its most recent close on March 27th was $13.15

If the 12 day EMA can stay above the 26 day EMA, look out above!

The following chart shows the long and short positions of various commodities on the Comex as reported by the CFTC for the week of March 16, 2009. Thanks to Mark J Lundeen for the chart. It shows that the net long/short position in silver is 100% short, compared to gold at 63%. I would consider this as prima facie evidence that the CFTC is not doing their job in preventing manipulation of the commercial silver market.

=========================================================

 

Concentrated Shorts Proven To Supress Gold and Silver – GATA

Source: GATA.org – Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GATA Board of Directors member Adrian Douglas, editor of the Market Force Analysis letter (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/), has combined data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to show that the suppression of the prices of gold and silver in the last several years correlates exactly with the growing concentration of the short positions held by two U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC.

Short of the official admissions of the gold price suppression scheme collected and published by GATA over the years, Douglas’ report is probably the best proof yet, and certainly the most detailed. Douglas’ report is titled “Pirates of the COMEX” and you can find it in PDF format at GATA’s Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/PIRATES-OF-THE-COMEX.pdf

GATA’s supporters may be wearying of our many similar requests, but only persistence pays off, so we ask you to print copies of Douglas’ report and send them — by regular mail, not e-mail, which is ignored — to your U.S. senators and representatives with a covering letter requesting an explanation as to why nothing is being done to stop this market manipulation. For our friends outside the United States, please send copies with similar letters to your own national legislators.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and

you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

 

 

=========================================================My note: As my friend Trader Dan says-

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

I think it’s time for a “short squeeze” and take back some of the money the “pirates” have stolen

=========================================================

That’s it for now-Have a Great Monday!- Good Investing- jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!=========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

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The Birthers’ Are Back – And At The Supreme Court!

25 Wednesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 2008 Election, Barack, Barack Dunham, Barack Hussein Obama, Barack Obama, Barry Dunham, Barry Soetoro, capitalism, Chicago Tribune, Columbia University, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, D.c. press club, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Electoral College, Electors, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, fraud, Free Speech, gold, Harvard Law School, hawaii, hyper-inflation, id theft, IMF, Indonesia, Indonesian Citizenship, inflation, Investing, investments, Joe Biden, John McCain, Latest News, legal documents, Markets, name change, natural born citizen, Oath of Allegiance of the President of the United State, obama, Occidental College, Phillip Berg, Politics, poser, Presidential Election, Sarah Palin, socialism, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, The Fed, Today, treason, U.S., u.s. constitution, U.S. Dollar, voter fraud, we the people foundation

≈ Comments Off on The Birthers’ Are Back – And At The Supreme Court!

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2008 Election, Barack Dunham, Barack Hussein Obama, Barack Obama, Barry Dunham, Barry Soetoro, capitalism, Chicago Tribune, Columbia University, Currency and Currencies, D.c. press club, Electoral College, Electors, Finance, fraud, Free Speech, gold, Harvard Law School, hawaii, id theft, Indonesia, Indonesian Citizenship, Investing, investments, Joe Biden, John McCain, Latest News, legal documents, Markets, name change, natural born citizen, Oath of Allegiance of the President of the United State, Occidental College, Phillip Berg, Politics, poser, Presidential Election, Sarah Palin, socialism, Stocks, Today, treason, u.s. constitution, U.S. Dollar, voter fraud, we the people foundation

I am not a “birther” unless- my asking Mr. Obama to provide his Birth Certificate for everyone to see- qualifies me as one. The idea that Mr. Obama refuses to do so borders on unbelievable! Now he is facing “criminal” charges because he hasn’t. Please don’t tell me he already has, he hasn’t. The certificate of live birth is not the same as a Birth Certificate, and even that was proven to be a forgery! Next why is he refusing to let anyone see anything about his personal past history, like school records,and anything where then he had to show some kind of identification to be registered and be enrolled. Mr. Obama, what are you hiding? Could it actually be that you really aren’t qualified and eligible to be the President? I have some real concerns and now the rest of America is starting to share those concerns! Could your meeting with the Supreme Court Justice’s was really about that very issue? Something like, hey guys I’m not actually eligible to be President, so if you ‘hear any of the “eligibility” cases’ and this is found out (not eligible to be President)- it will cause widespread rioting and destruction; along with a complete loss of trust by the American people. Is that what really transpired? Mr. Obama prove your eligibility! Another concern I have is what you are doing to this country. You say you inherited this mess from President Bush and a 1 Trillion Deficit mess. Yet your cure is to spend 10 Trillion of American money (to supposedly fix the problem), more money total, than every President from Washington to Bush Jr. combined! Our own allies are even imploring you to stop this disastrous course. China is warning you that they are going to buy less, if any at all of our new debt you are having issued, and are afraid they are going lose big time on their investments in our debt because of it. Your policies are destroying the American dollar or is that part of your plan? You continue to have your agents in the Fed and treasury illegaly try to artificially supress precious metals prices, especially Gold and Silver prices by leasing out or outright selling of America’s Gold at a negative basis. Why is their no transparency and accounting of where and how America’s gold is being used. China and Russia are calling for a new reserve currency run by the IMF and where the U.S. Dollar would only represent 40% of the value of the currency basket. One minute you are against that along with Geitner and the next you are both saying that that might be a good idea? Real time inflation. not the conjured, manipulated reports (like yesterday’s durable goods); currently the inflation rate is at 8.5% up another point in just the last month! China and Russia are aware of this and are buying up and increasing their Gold Reserves to protect themselves from Inflation and a falling Dollar. Next you are mortgaging my kids, grandchildren. and great grandchildren’s futures under an onerous, outrageous levels of debt. . So I ask based on these facts alone – Mr. Obama where is your Birth Certificate? If you don’t have anything to hide then why not, just order the State of Hawaii to provide (unseal) the Birth Certificate? What are you afraid of? Mr. Obama prove your eligibility to be the President of the United States…

==============================================

Justice, Supremes confirm getting Eligibility Challenge- World Net Faily

By: Bob Unruh of World Net Daily

© 2009 WorldNetDaily

The U.S. Supreme Court and the U.S. Justice Department today confirmed that documentation

challenging Barack Obama’s eligibility to be president has arrived and soon will be evaluated.

Confirmation came from Defend Our Freedoms, the foundation through which California attorney

Orly Taitz has been working on a number of cases that raise questions over Obama’s qualification to be president under the Constitution’s demand that the office be occupied only by a “natural born” citizen.

Taitz was informed by Karen Thornton of the Department of Justice that all of the case documents and filings have arrived and have been forwarded to the Office of Solicitor General Elena Kagan, including three dossiers and the Quo Warranto case.

“Coincidently, after Dr. Taitz called me with that update, she received another call from Officer Giaccino at the Supreme Court,” the website posting said. “Officer Giaccino stated both pleadings have been received and [are] being analyzed now.”

The report from the Supreme Court said the documents that Taitz hand-delivered to Chief Justice John Roberts at his appearance at the University of Idaho a little over a week ago also were at the Supreme Court.

WND has reported on dozens of legal challenges to Obama’s status as a “natural born citizen.” The Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, states, “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President.”

Where’s the proof Barack Obama was born in the U.S. or that he fulfills the “natural-born American” clause in the Constitution? If you still want to see it, join more than 340,000 others and sign up now!

Some of the legal challenges question whether he was actually born in Hawaii, as he insists. If he was born out of the country, Obama’s American mother, the suits contend, was too young at the time of his birth to confer American citizenship to her son under the law at the time.

Other challenges have focused on Obama’s citizenship through his father, a Kenyan subject to the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom at the time of his birth, thus making him a dual citizen. The cases contend the framers of the Constitution excluded dual citizens from qualifying as natural born.

Further, others question his citizenship by virtue of his attendance in Indonesian schools during his childhood and question on what passport did he travel to Pakistan three decades ago.

Adding fuel to the fire is Obama’s persistent refusal to release documents that could provide answers. While his supporters cite an online version of a “Certification of Live Birth” from Hawaii, critics point out such documents actually were issued for children not born in the state.

WND reported earlier on a proposal by U.S. Rep. Bill Posey, R-Fla., and the criticism he’s taking for suggesting that the issue be avoided in the future by having presidential candidates supply their birth certificate.

“What you should do is stop embarrassing yourself and take the Reynolds Wrap off your head,” MSNBC commentator Keith Olbermann suggested to Posey.

U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii, has asserted Posey’s judgment is skewed.

“The citizenship of someone who has reached the point of running for president of the United States is not really an issue,” Abercrombie said.

Posey said he made the suggestion because he’s seeking the truth, and “the more and more I get called names by leftwing activists, partisan hacks and political operatives for doing it, the more and more I think I did the right thing.”

Hawaiian officials have confirmed they have a birth certificate on file for Obama, but it cannot be released without his permission, and they have not revealed the information it contains.

John Eidsmoe, an expert on the U.S. Constitution working with the Foundation on Moral Law, told WND a demand for verification of Obama’s eligibility appears to be legitimate.

Eidsmoe said it’s clear that Obama has something in the documentation of his history, including his birth certificate, college records and other documents that “he does not want the public to know.”

Officials for the Obama campaign repeatedly have refused to comment on the questions, relenting only once to call the concerns “garbage.”

Other members of Congress have been reading from what appears to be a prepared script in response to queries about Obama’s eligibility:

Among the statements from members of Congress:

  • Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.: “Thank you for your recent e-mail. Senator Obama meets the constitutional requirements for presidential office. Rumors pertaining to his citizenship status have been circulating on the Internet, and this information has been debunked by Snopes.com, which investigates the truth behind Internet rumors.”
  • Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla.: “Presidential candidates are vetted by voters at least twice – first in the primary elections and again in the general election. President-Elect Obama won the Democratic Party’s nomination after one of the most fiercely contested presidential primaries in American history. And, he has now been duly elected by the majority of voters in the United States. Throughout both the primary and general election, concerns about Mr. Obama’s birthplace were raised. The voters have made clear their view that Mr. Obama meets the qualifications to hold the office of president.”
  • Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio: “President Obama has provided several news organizations with a copy of his birth certificate, showing he was born in Honolulu, Hawaii on August 4, 1961. Hawaii became a state in 1959, and all individuals born in Hawaii after its admission are considered natural-born United States citizens. In addition, the Hawaii State Health Department recently issued a public statement verifying the authenticity of President Obama’s birth certificate.”
  • U.S. Rep. Rush Holt, D-N.J.: “The claim that President Obama was born outside of the United States, thus rendering him ineligible for the presidency, is part of a larger number of pernicious and factually baseless claims that were circulated about then-Senator Obama during his presidential campaign. President Obama was born in Hawaii.” The response provided no documentation.

Taitz had approached Justice Antonin Scalia during his appearance in Los Angeles before meeting with Roberts at his Idaho appearance. She’s suggested that there was misbehavior at the Supreme Court because some of her earlier papers were not filed properly, nor were they returned to her.

Hers was just one of the issues reportedly presented to the Supreme Court justices in conference for an evaluation on whether a hearing should be held. No hearing ever has been held at that level on the evidence involved. Her Quo Warranto case is pending at the Justice Department. It essentially raises a demand for proof by what authority Obama has assumed the powers of president.

Here is a partial listing and status update for some of the cases over Obama’s eligibility:

  • New Jersey attorney Mario Apuzzo has filed a case on behalf of Charles Kerchner and others alleging Congress didn’t properly ascertain that Obama is qualified to hold the office of president.
  • Pennsylvania Democrat Philip Berg has three cases pending, including Berg vs. Obama in the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, a separate Berg vs. Obama which is under seal at the U.S. District Court level and Hollister vs. Soetoro a/k/a Obama, (now dismissed) brought on behalf of a retired military member who could be facing recall to active duty by Obama.
  • Leo Donofrio of New Jersey filed a lawsuit claiming Obama’s dual citizenship disqualified him from serving as president. His case was considered in conference by the U.S. Supreme Court but denied a full hearing.
  • Cort Wrotnowski filed suit against Connecticut’s secretary of state, making a similar argument to Donofrio. His case was considered in conference by the U.S. Supreme Court, but was denied a full hearing.
  • Former presidential candidate Alan Keyes headlines a list of people filing a suit in California, in a case handled by the United States Justice Foundation, that asks the secretary of state to refuse to allow the state’s 55 Electoral College votes to be cast in the 2008 presidential election until Obama verifies his eligibility to hold the office. The case is pending, and lawyers are seeking the public’s support.
  • Chicago attorney Andy Martin sought legal action requiring Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle to release Obama’s vital statistics record. The case was dismissed by Hawaii Circuit Court Judge Bert Ayabe.
  • Lt. Col. Donald Sullivan sought a temporary restraining order to stop the Electoral College vote in North Carolina until Barack Obama’s eligibility could be confirmed, alleging doubt about Obama’s citizenship. His case was denied.
  • In Ohio, David M. Neal sued to force the secretary of state to request documents from the Federal Elections Commission, the Democratic National Committee, the Ohio Democratic Party and Obama to show the presidential candidate was born in Hawaii. The case was denied.
  • Also in Ohio, there was the Greenberg v. Brunner case which ended when the judge threatened to assess all case costs against the plaintiff.
  • In Washington state, Steven Marquis sued the secretary of state seeking a determination on Obama’s citizenship. The case was denied.
  • In Georgia, Rev. Tom Terry asked the state Supreme Court to authenticate Obama’s birth certificate. His request for an injunction against Georgia’s secretary of state was denied by Georgia Superior Court Judge Jerry W. Baxter.
  • California attorney Orly Taitz has brought a case, Lightfoot vs. Bowen, on behalf of Gail Lightfoot, the vice presidential candidate on the ballot with Ron Paul, four electors and two registered voters.

In addition, other cases cited on the RightSideofLife blog as raising questions about Obama’s eligibility include:

  • In Texas, Darrel Hunter vs. Obama later was dismissed.
  • In Ohio, Gordon Stamper vs. U.S. later was dismissed.
  • In Texas, Brockhausen vs. Andrade.
  • In Washington, L. Charles Cohen vs. Obama.
  • In Hawaii, Keyes vs. Lingle, dismissed.

=============================================

Federal Criminal Complaint contends Obama Ineligible – WND

By Bob Unruh
© 2009 WorldNetDaily

An ex-military officer has raised the stakes in the ongoing dispute over Barack Obama’s eligibility to be president, filing a criminal complaint against the “imposter” with the U.S. attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Tennessee.

Retired U.S. Navy officer Walter Francis Fitzpatrick III, who has run a campaign for two decades to uncover and try to correct what he believes are criminal activities within the military, accused the president of “treason.”

In his complaint addressed to Obama via U.S Attorney Russell Dedrick and Assistant U.S. Attorney Edward Schmutzer, Eastern District, Tennessee, Fitzpatrick wrote: “I have observed and extensively recorded invidious attacks by military-political aristocrats against the Constitution for twenty years.

“Now you have broken in and entered the White House by force of contrivance, concealment, conceit, dissembling, and deceit. Posing as an impostor president and commander in chief you have stripped civilian command and control over the military establishment.”

He cited the deployment of “U.S. Army active duty combat troops into the small civilian community of Samson, Ala.,” and said, “We come now to this reckoning. I accuse you and your military-political criminal assistants of TREASON. I name you and your military criminal associates as traitors. Your criminal ascension manifests a clear and present danger. You fundamentally changed our form of government. The Constitution no longer works.

“I identify you as a foreign born domestic enemy,” he wrote.

The 1975 graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis told WND that a short time after his complaint was filed he was visited by two U.S. Secret Service agents, but they left after telling him they perceived no threat to the president in the document.

Where’s the proof Barack Obama was born in the U.S. or that he fulfills the “natural-born American” clause in the Constitution? If you still want to see it, join some 350,000 others and sign up now!

Officials with the Knoxville office of the Secret Service told WND the only person who could release information to the media was on vacation and they would not comment on the issue.

Likewise, officials with the U.S. attorney’s office declined to respond to a WND request for a comment.

Fitzpatrick told WND the U.S. Justice Department needs to look into the issue.

WND reported this week that officials at the Justice Department, along with those at the Supreme Court, confirmed that documentation in a case challenging Obama’s eligibility had arrived and was scheduled for an evaluation.

That case is being handled by California attorney Orly Taitz, who is working through her Defend Our Freedoms Foundation to handle several cases raising questions over Obama’s qualification to be president under the Constitution’s demand that the office be occupied only by a “natural born” citizen.

Taitz was informed by Karen Thornton of the Department of Justice that all of the case documents and filings have arrived and have been forwarded to the Office of Solicitor General Elena Kagan, including three dossiers.

Fitzpatrick said he has devoted his career fulltime to investigating issues in military justice and defending wrongly accused soldiers, sailors and Marines. His own career was torpedoed by a court-martial more than 20 years ago over his authorization of the use of a ship’s fund to sent an officer to the funeral for his brother, who had been killed by terrorists.

Fitzpatrick’s situation has been described not only on his own website but forum pages on other websites that deal with military issues.

He alleges his case was fabricated and even his signature was forged by officials connected to his case. He points to the fact that he ultimately retired and was awarded a military pension as support for his allegations.

But he says the new complaint against Obama should define the issue of the president’s eligibility.

“They either have to come and get me or get Mr. Obama’s eligibility proved. He has an officer in his military saying he is guilty of trespass on the Constitution,” Fitzpatrick told WND.

“They can recall me against my will to active duty,” he said. “I would refuse. It’s an illegal order by a man who is not by commander in chief.”

WND has reported on dozens of civil case legal challenges to Obama’s status as a “natural born citizen.” The Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, states, “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President.”

Some of the legal challenges question whether he was actually born in Hawaii, as he insists. If he was born out of the country, Obama’s American mother, the suits contend, was too young at the time of his birth to confer American citizenship to her son under the law at the time.

Other challenges have focused on Obama’s citizenship through his father, a Kenyan subject to the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom at the time of his birth, thus making him a dual citizen. The cases contend the framers of the Constitution excluded dual citizens from qualifying as natural born.

Further, others question his citizenship by virtue of his attendance in Indonesian schools during his childhood and question on what passport did he travel to Pakistan three decades ago.

Adding fuel to the fire is Obama’s persistent refusal to release documents that could provide answers. While his supporters cite an online version of a “Certification of Live Birth” from Hawaii, critics point out such documents actually were issued for children not born in the state.

Hawaiian officials have confirmed they have a birth certificate on file for Obama, but it cannot be released without his permission, and they have not revealed the information it contains.

John Eidsmoe, an expert on the U.S. Constitution working with the Foundation on Moral Law, has told WND a demand for verification of Obama’s eligibility appears to be legitimate.

Eidsmoe said it’s clear that Obama has something in the documentation of his history, including his birth certificate, college records and other documents that “he does not want the public to know.”

Officials for the Obama campaign repeatedly have refused to comment on the questions, relenting only once to call the concerns “garbage.”

==================================================

My Note: Mr Obama, show us you are eligible, where is your birth certificate? – jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

==================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

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The Battle is Still Raging!

24 Tuesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, capitalism, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, financial, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, SWC, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

My apologies for the 2 day gap in posts, was attending some high-level economic conferences and was unable to make any posts. Well the rest of the retracement has occurred for the Stock Market so we are at a citical juncture here. Personally I think this is a huge Bear Trap. It is a pretty normal bull retracement in a bear market. everyone wants to believe the bottom is in and I better get in now while I can before I “miss” it. Everyone keeps forgetting what is about to happen. The dreaded “I” word. The hidden tax on all of our money, inflation. If you listen carefully the ones “in the know” are already preparing for it. Today’s first article shows the fact that inflation is coming and our biggest holder of U.S. debt is growing very concerned. On the gold and precious metals charts we are seeing a drop today which I think is mostly exuberance spilling over from the stock market with investors seeling some of their Gold to play the Stock Market. We may have a head and shoulders forming after a double top which would be bearish for Precious Metals and convince a lot of weak knees to give up and exit out of the markets. However I think this is going to be a reverse of the Stock Market and prices are consolidating while waiting for the buig Inflation shoe to drop. For my own portfolio I am hanging tight and using this as an opportunity to accumulate more shares in the Precious Metals Producers, and also slowing shifing some funds back into Oil related investments. One market that has some real potential soon will be Natural Gas as it has been lagging so far behind Crude and Gasoline. Be Patient and choose wisely! On that note I have recently found and became a member of INO.com. With their patented “triangle  technology” trend analysis has never become easier! INO TV offers free – yes that’s right Free trading courses, news and video delivered right to your computer screen. INO Market Club offers  brand new talking charts- charts that actually talk to you! Awesome! Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Now Check this Out… Talking Charts!

========================================================

Sneak Peek At Our New

MarketClub Charts

March 20, 2009 · By Adam · Filed Under MarketClub Tips & Talk 

This week we have something very special to show you. We are pulling back the curtains to give you a sneak peek at MarketClub’s new charting program.

There’s nothing to buy, so all you have to do is look and listen. Did I say listen? How can you listen to a chart? Well, these patent pending charts include our new “Talking Chart” feature.

Can you imagine a chart that actually talks to you and tells exactly what’s going on in any market you are looking at or following?  Well, now you don’t have to imagine anymore as this is valuable feature is available at no extra cost in the latest version of MarketClub.

In addition to our “Talking Chart” feature, we have also improved our “Trade Triangle” technology so that it is even more powerful than before.

I think you’ll be impressed. Please take a few minutes out of your day to see how our new charts are revolutionary in many ways.

Please feel free to contact us on our blog about these new charts. We expected to go live with them any day now and you’re going to love them.

All the best,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

 

 

========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

 Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

========================================================

Source: Financial Post

Drop U.S. dollar as reserve: China

IMF asset instead

Alan Wheatley, Reuters  Published: Tuesday, March 24, 2009

China proposed yesterday a sweeping overhaul of the global monetary system, outlining how the U. S. dollar could eventually be replaced as the world’s main reserve currency by the IMF’s Special Drawing Right.

The SDR is an international reserve asset created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency, said Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China.

“The role of the SDR has not been put into full play, due to limitations on its allocation and the scope of its uses. However, it serves as the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system,” he said.

Mr. Zhou diplomatically did not refer explicitly to the U. S. dollar. But his speech spells out Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the primacy of the U. S. currency, which Mr. Zhou says has led to increasingly frequent global financial crises since the collapse in 1971 of the Bretton Woods system of fixed but adjustable exchange rates.

“The price is becoming increasingly high, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws,” Mr. Zhou said.

Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in London, said “over time, as the world is taken off the steroids of the over-leveraged U. S. consumer, you can’t have the same dollar dependence as we have had. But who can provide it? And the answer is, if it functioned properly, maybe the SDR could have a much bigger role,” he said.

A super-sovereign reserve currency would not only eliminate the risks inherent in fiat currencies such as the dollar — which are backed only by the credit of the issuing country, not by gold or silver — but would also make it possible to manage global liquidity, Mr. Zhou argued.

“When a country’s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange-rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis.”

========================================================

My Note: If you read between the lines, this does not bode well for the Treasury and Fed Debt offerings which will have to be issued to pay for all of the bailout, Tarp, and economic stimulus packages. This also doesn’t bode well for the U.S. Dollar in particular, but the other currencies also. As the largest holder of our debt, China is not happy about their investments losing value as the dollar depreciates. Next, China along with Russia are both buying and adding to their respective gold reserves! They are expecting massive inflation, why are we not hearing any talk about that in the nightly news?-jschulmansr

========================================================
Gold Stocks’ Time To Shine- Seeking Alpha
By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor

Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 8.6%
In a recent column (“Gold Traders Whipsawed” at), we said we’d let you know when the gold/mining stock ratio tipped in favor of the miners. Well, we’re telling you now. The GLD/GDX ratio decisively broke through its 200-day moving average late last week.
The SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD) is a grantor trust affording its holders an undivided interest in vault bullion. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) is a portfolio comprising nearly three dozen mining issues. With GLD’s price in the numerator, a decline in the quotient represents appreciation in gold stocks relative to gold itself.
 

 

Gold (GLD)/Gold Stocks (GDX) Ratio

Gold (<a href=

Both bullion and mining shares are higher for the year – GLD’s up 8.2% and GDX has risen 10.8% – but the momentum, for now at least, is with equities. Buoyancy in the broader equity market is providing lift for the miners, but it’s good to keep in mind that there’s a 75% correlation between GDX and GLD. Gold is, for the most part, gold.

Gold’s rising price has a leveraged effect on the stocks, as every dollar above a miner’s production cost flows to its bottom line.

Back in February, we highlighted one GDX component with very low production costs (“A Particularly Healthy Gold Stock“).

Is this the time to buy miners? Well, if you believe there’s more upside in gold (keep that correlation in mind) and want to ride the draft of the current equity market rally, perhaps. Taking a whack at GDX removes some of the stock-picking risk.

Reflation Update: The Real-time Inflation Indicator spiked 1.3% higher last week, reaching a level not seen since January.

========================================================

Gold Holders – Be Patient – Seeking Alpha

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne of Trendsman Research

In the wake of the Fed’s announced record monetization, some gold bugs remarked about the significance of the date and decision. Moreover, the airwaves were littered with commodity bulls (not the familiar faces). There were a few non-gold bug analysts on live television showing currency from Zimbabwe and relating the Fed decision to what has transpired in Zimbabwe. Hyperbole aside, Fed policy of currency debasement and inflation of the money supply is hardly anything new. News is important in that it highlights and reinforces trends. It doesn’t create them.
Keen market watchers and seasoned Fed observers were hardly surprised at the Fed action. We all knew it was coming. The question was when. Remember, news highlights trends. Commodities had been forming a bottom for five months. Just two weeks prior we wrote about our positive near term view on commodities. How about Gold? It rose from trough to peak over 40% in just four months. It seems that only the shorts were surprised.
Now to expound upon last week’s missive, reflation isn’t always so advantageous for the precious metals, especially gold. That holds true for both the economy and markets. With stocks and commodities now recovering, money is to be put to work in those markets and also potentially diverted away from gold. We aren’t expecting a full-blown correction in Gold but rather a consolidation that, for a matter of time diverts attention (like an idling engine) away from itself as it prepares for major liftoff.
This is a temporary respite in a bear market and in an economy stuck in deflation. The first period of deflation (and strengthening dollar) in the Great Depression lasted three years. The Yen increased nearly 100% from early 1990 to early 1995. This bout of deflation isn’t even one year old yet. In other words, don’t expect commodities to enter a cyclical bull market anytime soon. There isn’t enough demand on the horizon. The recession and accompanying deflation should last into 2010. It may be a while before both run their course, thereby allowing an inflationary recovery to begin in earnest.

In conclusion, be aware that the current rebound in stocks and commodities, though large, is just a temporary recovery. A single news event won’t change that nor alleviate the current deflationary pressures on the economy. Finally, holders of gold and gold shares should be patient. The major breakout will occur this year, though not within the time expectations of the gold bugs.

========================================================

My Note: When Gold and Precious Metals prices do take off and they will, it will be faster than anyone has anticipated. Use this time to buy now, increase your holdings. -Good Investing – Jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

========================================================
Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Lift-Off for Gold!

19 Thursday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Lift-Off for Gold!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

It’s here, after the Fed’s decision to leave Interest Rates unchanged and to buy $300 billion in Treasuries, plus another $750 billion minimum in buying mortgage backed securities; the markets woke up this morning to the realization Inflation is coming back. Gold which closed down $29 yesterday but immediately shot up after the announcement on spot pricing. Today the market has caught up and as I speak Gold is up $66.90 at $956 oz. I hope you have been listening to this blog and have gotten in. If you were on the sidelines- this is the time to still get in as $1050 first target. After that $1250 oz so get in while you can. We have Lift-Off! – Good Investing- jschulmansr

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people. To Sign up (Free) and receive your shares click here.

 

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=========================================================

Where is the Dollar heading? Part 1 — A Must See!

=========================================================

 Gold rallies over 7% as Fed move fuels inflation fears

By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch Last update: 1:14 p.m. EDT March 19, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed to top $950 an ounce after
the Federal Reserve pledged to purchase as much as $1.15 trillion in U.S. bonds 
and mortgage-backed securities to encourage lending, sparking worries of inflation 
ahead. "Looking ahead, we fear inflation. It may be that Dr. Bernankenstein has 
created a monster beyond his control," Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & 
Washington, said of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. 
The U.S. dollar's losses in the wake of the Fed's move also lifted gold prices, 
with investors buying gold as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar. 
Gold for April delivery surged $66.5, or 7.6%, to $955.6 an ounce on the 
Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It climbed to $963.5 
earlier in the session, the highest level in nearly one month. Gold's gain came 
after it lost $27.70 to end at $889.10 Wednesday, the lowest closing level 
in two months. 
Wednesday's floor trading ended before the Fed announced its decision. 
George Gero, a precious metals trader for RBC Capital Markets, called gold's 
quick reverse from an nearly $30 dollars to up more than $60 "shock and awe." 
The Fed's plan "could change [the] inflation outlook and result in a greater 
trading range," he added. 
Silver prices marked an even bigger rally. Silver for May delivery jumped 
12.7% to $13.445 an ounce. 

'Gold is well-placed to re-challenge $1,000 an ounce.'

— -- James Moore, TheBullionDesk.com

The Fed said it would buy longer-term Treasury bonds to help arrest a 
deepening slide in the U.S. economy, a surprise move that also sent stocks 
soaring and triggered violent moves in other markets. 
The Fed's move, one of several actions taken Wednesday aimed at making 
it less expensive to borrow money, doubled the amount of money the central 
bank has poured into the economy to try to stimulate economic activity. 
Read: The Fed Minutes. 
"The Fed's announcement of further quantitative easing triggered renewed 
inflation fears," wrote James Moore, a precious metals analyst at 
TheBullionDesk.com. "Gold is well-placed to re-challenge $1000 an ounce." 
Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD94.15, +1.06, +1.1%) jumped to 
1,084.33 tons Wednesday, up 15.28 tons from a day ago, according to 
the latest data from the fund. The total is nearly 80 tons higher than 
a month ago. 
In economic news Thursday, the number of people collecting 
state unemployment benefits jumped by 185,000 to a record seasonally-
adjusted 5.47 million in the week ending March 7, while new claims dipped 
by 12,000 to 646,000 in the week ending March 14, the Labor Department 
reported Thursday. See Economic Report on weekly jobless claims. 
On Wall Street, stocks meandered between gains and losses following 
Wednesday's rally. Asian and European stocks also moved higher. In energy 
trading, crude jumped more than 7% to about $52 a barrel. 

 
Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

 

 

========================================================

 

Gold, T-Bonds, and Russia's Tu-160 Bombers -Seeking Alpha


A torrid tale of politics, gossip and a shiny, yellow threat to world peace...
Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold. 
Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody...

- Alan Greenspan, then-Fed chairman, May 1999


FOR A WORLD-LEADING MARKET turning over $60 billion per day, 
London's wholesale gold dealers sure spook easy sometimes.
"I've just heard central banks have been selling. You hear anything?" 
asked one breathless contact of BullionVault on Wednesday... just 
before the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion shot in the arm gamed 
the gold price so hard, so fast, the conspiracy theorists at GATA 
should demand a Congressional hearing into Ben Bernanke's 
long Comex position.
 
More often than not, however, professional dealers get all 
aflutter about rumors of central-bank buying, not selling. In 
late 2008, it was supposed to be the Saudis. Last month it was 
the Russians – or so gossip claimed. Gossip that the Kremlin 
was only too happy to buoy.
 
Come mid-March, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) fired up 
the tittle-tattle – and again, as if on purpose – by forecasting 
that despite "safe haven" demand for the US dollar in 2009, 
gold prices would "fluctuate at high levels...possibly 
breaking through previous highs..."
 
Now this week a report by the oh-so-sexily-named 
Central Banking Publications says that out of 39 reserve 
managers controlling $3.2 trillion in official currency and 
bullion hoards – some 42% of the world total – well over 
one-in-two feels Buying Gold would make a smarter move 
today than it did this time last year.
 
So are the emerging powers hoarding gold today or not? 
What's a private citizen trying to look after his or her own 
to make of this chatter?
 
Well, as a rule, it means little or nothing for the price of gold 
day-to-day. And like GATA's claims – 
highly detailed, much derided – that Western governments 
regularly fix the gold market to cap its ascent, rumors of 
central-bank buying never prove quite as dramatic as 
central-bank action to either defend or debase the 
currencies against which it's priced instead.
 
Raise overnight interest rates to double digits, for instance 
as the Federal Reserve's Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s 
and non-yielding gold will tumble against high-yielding cash. 
 
Cut and hold rates at zero, in contrast...while creating, say, 
$1 trillion of fresh money in a 425-word statement, as Ben 
Bernanke did Wednesday...and you'll send Gold Prices higher, 
just as surely as the Maestro's apprentice strolling into London 
and buying 50 tonnes on his own account.
 
Investment-house analysts, meantime, are more focused on 
the possible 400-tonne sale mooted to help save the world-
saving International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yet the really big 
driver so far this year remains mutual-fund managers buying 
paper-shares in ETF trusts. Western coin buyers paying 
10% mark-ups (or more...!) are meantime wrestling with Asian 
scrap-jewelry sellers as to who can tip the balance of apparent 
supply and demand.
 
Large-scale gold purchases by Beijing or the Kremlin would 
anyway come at the pit-head, rather than on the open market, 
as they look to "slow and steady accumulation" in the words 
of UBS's highly-regarded John Reade recently, quoted by the 
Financial Times. 
 
Buying gold direct from domestic miners was 
how South Africa more than doubled its official reserves in the 
late 1960s. China and Russia now stand first and fourth among 
the world's gold-producing nations. Why announce their 
intentions, sticking a premium onto their dealer's offer, 
by going through the open market?
 
But behind the dealing-room noise, however, the cold facts 
of Asian, Middle East and Russian gold hoarding point to a 
deeper trend – an ugly if grand historical shift that finds its 
last cyclical turn almost 10 years ago to the day.
 
In mid-1999, the Swiss, European and UK central banks 
announced gold sales that did indeed shake the market. 
Back then, the Gold Price had been tumbling for the best 
part of two decades – thanks first to those double-digit US 
rates, and then to the fast-growing number of high-return 
alternatives for investment cash that sprouted worldwide 
as interest rates began to fall back but remained well north 
of the rate of inflation.
 
Prompted by investment-bank advisors and analysts, the 
late 20th century's heavy selling by West European 
governments coincided not only with both a multi-year 
low in the gold price and a bubble in earnings-free tech stocks. 
 
It also came together with Francis Fukuyama's "end of history" 
and Tony Blair – the UK prime minister then guilty of bombing 
neither Belgrade nor Baghdad – declaring his to be "the first 
generation [in Europe] that may live our entire lives without 
going to war or sending our children to war."
 
Put Blair's cant to one side (if you're not retching). Why did 
Europe's central banks have so much gold to sell in the first 
place? As BullionVault has noted before, the continent's 30-
year scrap between its big nation states was preceded and 
worsened by frantic gold hoarding amongst the major players. 
 
Because a government must trust in another's long-term survival 
when accepting its paper as payment. Whereas gold bullion, as 
former Fed chief Alan Greenspan famously said – and just before 
the UK announced its 415-tonne sales back in May 1999 as it 
happens – "still represents the ultimate form of payment in 
the world.
 
"Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with 
gold. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is 
always accepted."
 
Why else did the Nazis march straight to seizing the central-bank 
vaults on reaching Vienna, Prague and Warsaw? Why else did the 
United States grow its hoard from 500 tonnes in 1900 to almost 
20,000 by the eve of World War Two...nationalizing privately-held 
gold on pain of a $10,000 fine or imprisonment when F.D.R. took 
office at the depths of the Great Depression? (See 
Hoarding for War, Vaulting for Victory for more...)
 
Now, two generations later, China's official gold reserves remain 
unknown and unknowable to outside observers. But it has become 
the world's No.1 gold-mining state thanks to the collapse in South 
African output. And the fresh deluge of US money debasement only 
confirms why Beijing's bankers "hate you guys" as one policy-maker, 
Luo Ping – director-general of 
China's Banking Regulatory Commission – put it last month.
 
"Once you start issuing $1 trillion or $2 trillion," he said to the 
Financial Times, five weeks before the Fed issued...ummm...$1.25 
trillion of new cash..."we know the Dollar is going to depreciate.
 
"So we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do. Except for 
US Treasuries, what can you hold? Gold? You don't hold Japanese 
government bonds or UK bonds. US Treasuries are the safe haven. 
For everyone, including China, it is the only option."
 
Further west (but only a little, politically), Russia's official gold reserves 
have swelled by one-half this decade on the IMF's data, with new 
purchases peaking in August 2008 – just as the 58th army rolled into 
Georgia to defend South Ossetia's illegal, breakaway republic.
 
Under Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin said it wanted gold to grow from 
2.5% to fully one-tenth of its foreign currency reserves, meaning 
four-fold growth of its bullion hoard if not a collapse in its paper a
ssets. Just last month, the central bank stated that it was Buying Gold. 
On the available data, it had already added 109 tonnes to its hoard in the 
15 months starting Jan. 2007 at a cost of some $27 billion.
 
Oh sure, that's peanuts compared to the total $4 trillion-worth of gold 
now thought to be above-ground at today's prevailing prices. But the 
vast bulk of that gold is held as jewelry, not monetary units like coins 
or bars. And according to Tsar Putin himself back in 2007, before this 
burst of gold-hoarding really got started, the ratio of 
Russian government debt to its national gold reserves was already 
stronger than for any other state in Europe.
 
Never mind how wide of the mark that metric was; Putin's claim shows 
how much Gold Bullion matters to Russia's political confidence – a 
swagger only called into use when debt and foreign currencies slide 
into crisis. And then this week, the current Kremlin incumbent, Dmitry 
Medvedev, goes and announces that he's "rearming" Russia, using the 
very word – "rearmament" – that Europe fretted over and feared all 
through its short 20-year peace between the first and second world wars.
 
Specifically, "[I will] increase the combat readiness of our forces, first 
of all our strategic nuclear forces," Medvedev declared Tuesday, piling 
historical weight onto Monday's more Cold-War-style news that 
Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, is planning a manned lunar 
mission for 2015.
 
Oh, and then there was Sunday's news from Venezuelan socialist 
crackpot Hugo Chavez that Russia's long-range Tu-160 "Black Jack" 
bombers – each capable of carrying 12 nuclear warheads – are welcome 
to use the Caribbean island of La Orchila. You know, just for re-fuelling, 
cleaning the windscreen, emptying the ash-trays...but not ever as a 
permanent base.
 
So this isn't the Cuban missile crisis. Not yet at least. But the Kremlin's 
new saber rattling must still have caused a shock at the White House – 
just as it shocked anyone not tracking Russia's fast-growing gold reserves. 
Either that, or Team Obama is so smart, they were expecting some kind of 
pre-emptive strike ahead of the Fed's nuclear blast in the T-bond market.
 
"Foreign demand for long-term Treasuries has disappeared over the last 
few months," writes Brad Setser – an ex-US Treasury and IMF official, 
former economist for Nouriel Roubini's doom-and-gloom funsters at RGE 
Monitor, and a visiting or associate fellow pretty much everywhere worth 
having deep thoughts on big subjects. Studying the latest official data 
(released Monday) in his blog for the Council for Foreign Relations, "It is 
striking that for all the talk of safe haven flows to the US, foreign demand 
for all long-term US bonds has effectively disappeared," he explains. 
 
In particular, "Over the past three months, almost all the growth in 
China's Treasury portfolio has come from its rapidly growing holdings of 
short-term bills, not from purchases of longer-term notes...and it is also 
still selling [mortgage] Agency bonds."
 
All told, China continued to buy US Treasury debt; it is "the only 
option" for China, Russia and everyone else at this stage of the game, 
as Luo Ping wailed  to the FT last month. But of the $12.2 billion China 
purchased in January, fully 95% were short-term bills. "Russia also, 
interestingly, added to its holdings of short-term Treasury bills," Setser 
says.
 
And then, with the latest Treasury fund-flow data revealed...BOOM! 
The Federal Reserve explodes the Dollar by printing $300bn to buy 
30-year US debt, plus another $750bn to buy mortgage-agency bonds.
Someone's got to buy this stuff, and the forced buyers of this decade-
to-date are starting to tire. They might just be looking to Buy Gold for 
much more than "portfolio diversification" as well.
 
There. How's that for a gold-market rumor...?

========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; 

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who's been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold… 

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault 

========================================================

Where is the Dollar heading? Part 1 - A Must See!
========================================================

 

My Note:  Rumors or not Gold is up $69.70 On the Day! - 
Good Investing - Jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!


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Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other 
investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your 
Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information 
carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr






 

 

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Scammed Again By Uncle Sam?

18 Wednesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, central banks, China, Copper, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, depression, dollar denominated investments, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, hard assets, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Japan, Jschulmansr, Latest News, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, oil, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, recession, Saudi Arabia, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, TARP, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar

≈ Comments Off on Scammed Again By Uncle Sam?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Today Gold dropped $27.70 down to support at the $885 – $890 levels. We need to ask ourselves why? I would like to propose that we are absolutely being “Scammed by Uncle Sam!”. Let me explain… Again today Gold Lease Rates (1 month) are negative. “So what’s the  big deal about that?” you are asking. The big deal is this, when the lease rate is negative it means that someone will actually pay you a fee in addition to giving a Gold loan. Now you or I or anybody with a sane mind is not going to make a loan to you for a fee (they have to pay), to borrow Gold from them. This doesn’t even count the risk of never being repaid and losing the Gold! However, (and you can read more detail in today’s first article); this provides a way for someone to supress Gold prices if they wanted to, and you guessed who – “Scammed Again By Uncle Sam”. While the first article today explains “the how”, I am going to venture the “why”. Right now if you pay attention to what is going on, the U.S. and the Fed desperately need to appease some large holders of our debt and dollars by making a way for them to convert their dollar holdings into Gold. They also realize that their current (US) monetary policies are going to force Precious metals prices (especially Gold) much higher than today’s $1000 level while at the same time deteriorating the value of the U.S. dollar. By supressing the price of Gold temporarily the Fed and Treasury will benefit as follows. First as the foreign holders sell off their Treasuries and Bonds this creates a demand for U.S. Dollars to fulfill the transactions. This in turn brings those Dollars back into our economy helping to create more liquidity. Now depending on the velocity of money, that can be in itself inflationary. However with the velocity of money being dependent on Capital Investment, what are we currently seeing? Right now there is no real demand for new goods and services, which means that there is no real incentive to invest in New Factories, Expanding current production levels, or even opening new businesses. So then what happens? The holders instead of sitting on their dollars look for safe places to park those dollars until the economy turns around again. Where do they park the money, banks have proven to be risky?, the stock market? even riskier still, so they park their money in a “safe haven”, buying up Treasuries and Bonds. This helps to offest the selling pressure on Treasuries caused from the original U.S. Debt holder’s sales, and it also creates further demand for U.S. Dollars. With the unprecendented spending currently going on by Mr. Obama and cohorts, the Fed and the Treasury needs to create an increased demand for all of the new Debt Issuances coming into the market. ( They are also creating further false demand buy buying up their own new debt  (300 Billion purchase just announced today). In my mind these purchase in the long term will also create more inflation. So currently the U.S. government has every reason to keep trying to artificially depress the Gold Prices. Sooner or later however their Gold price manipulation will explode in their faces as already seen in a smaller degree,  the demand for Gold is snatching up all of the physical gold being dumped. That is why we will bounce off of these price levels for the fourth time. When it breaks and when inflation (already here- currently running 8% to 15%) is officially acknowledged,watch out Gold will shoot up like the latest Space shuttle launch! Use this limited time frame to keep adding to and accumulating your long positions in Precious Metals- Good Investing! – jschulmansr

ps- For complete details and Information on how Gold Prices are being manipulated and the Silver market also- go to GATA.org.

pps-****NEWS FLASH****

Gold is now up $26.60 New York Spot at $942.50 after Fed Announcement of Leaving Interest Rates Unchanged!

 =========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people. To Sign up (Free) and receive your shares click here.

 Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 

 

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=========================================================

 

 

 Gold Price Manipulation More Blatant- Numismaster.com

By: Patrick A. Heller of Numismater.com

On Friday, March 6, gold lease rates turned negative for the day. What that means is that anyone who wanted to lease gold would actually be paid a fee in addition to getting a free gold loan.
No sane person would choose to lose money loaning physical gold, in addition to the risk of never getting the gold back from the other party. However, if someone (such as the U.S. government) wanted to suppress the price of gold, this is one tactic to try to accomplish that purpose.
I can come to no other conclusion than that a large quantity of physical gold surreptitiously appeared on the market on March 6 with the sole purpose to drive down the price of gold. The quantities were large enough that they almost certainly could not come from private parties. With most of the world’s central banks now being net buyers of gold reserves, they would not be the source of this gold. By process of elimination, the suspicion falls upon the U.S. government as the ultimate party responsible for this blatant action to manipulate the price of gold.

Of course, the U.S. government would not want to be identified as the cause of this leasing anomaly. Instead, such manipulation was almost certainly conducted by multiple trading partners of the U.S. government.

This sledge hammer tactic worked at driving the price of gold further away from the $1,000 level – at least temporarily. Last week, spokesmen for a number of troubled U.S. companies were suddenly issuing statements about a return to profitability (such as Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase) or not needing further government bailouts (such as General Motors). Stock values climbed as gold’s price retreated.

But (and there was always a but), these massive efforts to suppress the price of gold seem to be running out of steam. First off, these “positive statements” had serious qualifiers such as the chairman of Citigroup claiming that, ignoring extraordinary items like bad loans, the bank earned an operating income in the first two months of 2009.

Then insurance company AIG bowed to pressure and revealed that a huge portion of the $150+ billion in bailout funds it had received had really been passed along as bailout money to other companies (including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase). In fact, almost all of this money was redirected to the U.S. government’s trading partners who probably have been complicit in the manipulation of the gold price.

Once the public learned that such companies have received more federal government bailout money that previously revealed, the stock market rally stalled. The price of gold started to recover. Unless the U.S. government can come up with another tactic quickly, I expect the price of gold to generally rise over time.

In the meantime, demand for physical gold has taken off again. The U.S. Mint is so far behind at meeting demand for bullion gold and silver American Eagle issues that it last week announced an indefinite suspension of plans to strike 2009-dated proof and uncirculated versions for collectors. Even further, the U.S. Mint also announced that it would not even accept orders from primary distributors for any gold or silver Eagles this week.

On the wholesale market, supplies of gold and silver American Eagles quickly disappeared. The premiums of these coins shot upward. Some retailers now have to decline orders as they don’t know when they might be able to fill them or what premiums they will have to pay to acquire merchandise. My earlier prediction that by the end of April it would become almost impossible to find any physical gold or silver bullion-priced items for reasonable delivery is starting to come true.

At the American Numismatic Association’s National Money Show in Portland, Ore., this past weekend, demand for U.S. gold $10s and $20s was still solid. With some such collector coins now trading at all-time high prices, however, some dealers are advising their customers to consider selling or swapping for gold bullion. As a consequence, I think most of the surge in prices has already occurred. It might be a good time to take a profit.

 

 

 

=========================================================

My Note: Very Interesting Advice! “take profit on collector coins and buy bullion”-jschulmansr

=========================================================

What’s Another $1.5 Trillion? – Seeking Alpha

By: Tim Iacono of Iacono Research

The Federal Reserve announced today that they will join the central banks of England and Switzerland, printing money out of thin air to buy long-term government debt so as to keep interest rates low and boost lending in their ongoing attempt to revive an economy that is faltering badly due to an orgy of credit and debt a few years ago.
Apparently the gold market and currency markets have heard the news (the chart to the right will be updated as needed over the next hour or so – update #1 from $925 to $932 already complete).
The printing presses will be working ’round the clock to fund purchases of up to $300 billion in long-term Treasuries over the next six months which, in combination with an increase in purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency debt also announced today (an additional $850 billion total), should see the Fed’s balance sheet swell to once unthinkable levels.

Lest anyone think that any of this is getting a bit out of control, the central bank also provided assuring words that they will keep an eye on the “size and composition” of their balance sheet in light of economic developments.

In what appeared to be just an afterthought, relegated to the third paragraph after occupying the top spot for years, the Fed also announced that short-term interest rates will be left at the freakishly low level of between zero and 0.25 percent and that they won’t be going up anytime soon.

And if this doesn’t work, we might just see the Fed’s balance sheet hit that $10 trillion level that someone mentioned the other day.

 

 

=========================================================

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini
 
 

 

=========================================================

My note: Only one answer to being scammed buy more! Please take advantage of the price now, they may try to bump it down one more time, but we are going back and testing all time highs $1050 level, if a “short squeeze” develops then $1250. Jump aboard now! -Good Investing – jschulmansr

=========================================================
Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people. To Sign up (Free) and receive your shares click here.

 

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

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Are You Ready To Rock?

17 Tuesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

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Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

As I have mentioned before, we are going to see the calls that the stock market bottom is in place and everybody is going to give up on precious metals. Yesterday, I showed you proof of my predictions on the Stock Market side, today’s articles include proof of the hasty exit of all the so called “Gold Bulls”. Being a contrarian by nature this is a heaven sent gift! So I ask are You, yes You! Ready To Rock? This is the time to BUY, BUY, Buy! Gold, Silver, Platinum and Paladium. Oh- don’t forget to start putting in your positions in Oil too! By the end of the year as I said yesterday, $1250 – $2000 Gold, $25-$75 Silver, I think approximately $250 – $400 Paladium, and Platinum $2250 -$3000. Dare Something Wiorthy Today Too! Buy Precious metals and Oil , all forms from Stocks, to Bullion, to Coins, and to Etf’s. Each one will truly bring you returns you’ll be able to brag about to your children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren. Plus even if they all don’t rise so high you still have yourself a nice little hedge against the Hyper maybe even Stagflation! Get in with at least 10% – 30% of your portfolio dollars, cost average if you like, the important thing is to get in and get in now! Are You Ready To Rock? As Always, Good Investing! – jschulmansr

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

 A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

=========================================================

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 

 

 

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Gold Timers are Running for the exits, which is a good sign – MarketWatch

By: Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Call it the retreat of the gold bugs.

 

Over the past three weeks, the editor of the average gold timing newsletter I monitor has hastily jumped off the bullish bandwagon. And a not insignificant number have taken the occasion to furthermore jump onto the bearish bandwagon.
At least from the point of view of contrarian analysis, this is good news for gold.
           Chart of 38099902
Consider the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. The HGNSI’s latest reading is minus 16.5%, which means that the editor of the average gold timing newsletter is recommending that his subscribers allocate 16.5% of their gold portfolios to shorting the market.
Three weeks ago, in contrast, the HGNSI stood at 60.9%. So in just 15 trading sessions, the average recommended gold market exposure has fallen by more than 77 percentage points.
What sins did gold bullion  commit to elicit this huge of a reaction? Failing to rise convincingly above the psychologically important $1,000 barrier, apparently: Spot gold in the futures market was able to close above that level for just one day (Feb. 20), and only barely at that ($1,001.70). And it then dropped.
Still, gold didn’t fall off a cliff. It’s currently just 8% below its Feb. 20 close, after all. Declines of that magnitude typically do not lead to such marked shifts in sentiment from bulls to bears.
Just take sentiment in the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:

To be sure, the 4.5 percentage point drop in recommended stock market exposure is itself surprisingly modest, which is one of the reasons that contrarians suspect that the bear market is not yet over. (Read my March 2 column.)
But the plunge in gold sentiment has been as exaggerated as the drop in stock sentiment has been muted. Contrarians therefore believe that gold’s recent decline is more likely to prove a correction within a longer-term up move than the beginning of a major bear market. End of Story
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
=========================================================
My Note: Are You Ready To Rock? Now for Silver…
Gold bullishly buoyed by news: – Got Gold Report- Stockhouse.com
By: Gene Arensberg of Gold Newsletter.com

Silver taking cues from gold

ATLANTA — Whether or not gold actually responds to it short term, potentially bullish news surfaced for gold and silver this past week. The Swiss National Bank stunned the European capital and forex markets, hammering their own currency in the first salvo of probable competitive currency debasement across the pond. Who would have thought the Swiss – Switzerland! – would fire the first shot in the battle to weaken their own currency?

Apparently the price of chocolate and fine watches is going up in Zurich.  

Swiss currency intervention, along with the U.K. currency printing presses in overdrive are sure to lend more, not fewer investors to seek a safe haven from the paper currencies of the world. Swiss devaluation of the franc is an open invitation to other central banks in Europe to follow suit. 

Sooner or later the purchasing power of government paper of all descriptions should be taking a back seat to gold on such news. Gold, the one pure “currency” and always trusted measure of value for over four millennia, cannot be printed by fiat and can’t be produced fast enough to flood the market with too much of it, no matter the price.       

To add supreme insult to injury, the Swiss are also apparently capitulating to international pressure and will now relax their formerly air-tight bank secrecy regulations to the great consternation of anyone who holds funds there in special, formerly uber-secret, numbered accounts.

China Syndrome meets “Rollover”  

This past week Wen Jiabao, China Prime Minister, reportedly said in remarks following his annual press conference, “We have lent a massive amount of capital to the United States, and of course we are concerned about the security of our assets.” 

So the Chinese prime minister is publicly voicing the obvious. China probably now wishes it had invested a bit larger portion of its nearly $2 trillion in forex reserves in gold metal rather than in government paper promises. Rumors of Chinese gold buying are already crawling around the internet. With statements like that from high Chinese officials those rumors will grow wings.  

Jiabao continued, “To speak truthfully, I do indeed have some worries… I would like, through you (the press), to once again request America to maintain their credit worthiness, keep their promise and guarantee the safety of Chinese assets.” 

China certainly knows that if it were to sell off their U.S. bonds too quickly they would only be hurting themselves, but isn’t it rather bullish for gold to know that the Chinese are openly worried about their approximately $1.4 trillion in U.S. debt instruments? Is it more or less likely that China will be adding a higher percentage of gold to their now tiny reserves knowing that? It won’t be all that much of a wonder should gold seem to have a firmer bid under it for some time to come under the circumstances.

Moving on to other anecdotal news, think people are not changing their behavior during this global financial crises? Well, consider that according to news reports gun sales in the United States are at 20-year highs and some types of ammunition have become scarce as people become more fearful of the potential for civil unrest. We have a bullet bull market underway. 

Among other gold bullish news, last week we saw a confrontation in international waters between a U.S. intelligence gathering ship and the Chinese navy. In yet another test of the new U.S. president Russia provocatively said they “could use bases in Cuba and Venezuela” for their long-range strategic bombers and that’s just a taste of what the wire services were serving up. 

Gold and silver more or less moved sideways over the past week. The Big Markets staged an old fashioned bear market short covering rally up from way-oversold, but the news sure seemed more, not less supportive for precious metals since the last Got Gold Report. It makes one want to dive into the indicators to see what they are, well, indicating.     

Gold ETFs 

Gold once again tested the $890s and was once again repelled upward from that zone. That is the third time in six weeks that gold has tested the $890s and bounced. As we note that, we also have to take note that cash prices turned in a lower high for the week and a slightly lower low. The $890s have now become the gold bull’s defensive zone and the bear’s prime target. (See the gold chart linked below for more technical commentary.)  

SPDR Gold Shares, [GLD], the largest gold ETF, added another 27.83 tonnes of allocated gold bars to its gold holdings over the past week. So far this year GLD has added a stunning 276.59 tonnes of gold to show 1,056.82 tonnes of gold bars held for its investors by a custodian in London. As of the Friday 3/13 close the metal held by the trust was worth $31.5 billion.

Source for data SPDR Gold Trust

Repeating from the last full report two weeks ago: “Clearly the majority of GLD investors are not convinced there is material weakness ahead for gold – at least not yet.”

Indeed, as gold retraced from the $1,000 mark to the $890s, instead of abundant selling pressure forcing GLD to redeem shares and sell gold, we have to take note of the opposite. It is quite clear that investors have so far taken advantage of the dip in gold prices to add more GLD, not less.    

So that the price of each share of GLD tracks very closely with the price of 1/10 ounce of gold (less accumulated fees), authorized market participants (AMPs) have to add metal and increase the shares in the trading float when buying pressure strongly outstrips selling pressure. The reverse occurs when selling pressure overwhelms buying pressure.

Barclay’s iShares COMEX Gold Trust [IAU] gold holdings declined a small 0.92 tonnes to 66.86 tonnes of gold held for its investors. Gold holdings for the U.K. equivalent to GLD, Gold Bullion Securities, Ltd. added 1.23 tonnes over the past week, to show 130.89 tonnes of gold held as of Friday, reversing a similar reduction the week prior. 

All of the gold ETFs sponsored by the World Gold Council showed a collective increase of 29.54 tonnes to their gold holdings to 1,229.42 tonnes worth $36.7 billion USD as of the Friday 3/13 cash market close.

SLV Metal Holdings

Silver consolidated its downward thrust, turning in an “inside week” with a slightly lower high ($13.41) and a slightly higher low ($12.48), while bouncing neatly off the popular 50-day moving average which is currently rising through the $12.40s. The white metal closed the week on an advance with a last Friday 3/13 trade of $13.20 on the cash market. (See the silver chart linked below).  

For the week metal holdings for Barclay’s iShares Silver Trust [SLV], the U.S. silver ETF, held steady at 7,898.37 tonnes of silver metal held for its investors by custodians in London. SLV reported a reduction in metal holdings of 159.42 tonnes the prior week.   

Source for data Barclay’s iShares Silver Trust.

Still no new custodian for SLV

As of Friday, March 13, SLV still had not filed an amendment either naming an additional custodian or increasing the amount of silver storage available under the current custodian agreement with JP Morgan Chase London. 

We remain vigilant, because there is very little “room” under the current custodian agreement for SLV to add additional silver as we reported in the last Got Gold Report. There is no doubt ample silver available in London (for now) from one of the other London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) members with large metal holdings in London warehouses, but so far we don’t know whom SLV will name as the additional custodian or sub-custodian and we don’t know how much silver “storage” that new custodian will be able to provide.    

U.S. banks dominate the COMEX  

While those of us with a long bias can take some comfort in the larger reductions of net short positioning by the commercial traders (covered in the full Got Gold Report), we need to remember that as of right now the short side of the market is literally dominated by just two big U.S. banks. When the regulators, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), consent to allow just two traders to take overly large positioning on either side of a particular market, it leads to mistrust and angst among the public and market commentators. Such overwhelmingly large positioning also provides ammunition to conspiracy-minded commentators who constantly blame price movements of silver (and gold) on deliberate action by sinister members of a secretive “cartel” intent on suppressing the price of gold and silver.

Some of the individuals advancing the notion of a conspiracy to suppress precious metals prices are bright, articulate and bring compelling evidence and research to the discussion regularly. We’ll undoubtedly have much more about that in future reports, but for now it has become increasingly difficult for the industry and regulators to ignore the so-called “conspiracy camp” and its growing legions of members.     

Regardless if one believes in menacing cartel theories, and regardless of whether or not one takes the opposite view, (that most or all of the very large net short positioning of the two very large U.S. banks in silver futures are actually legitimate hedges offsetting long positions in OTC markets on behalf of the various clients of the banks), the current positioning by the two banks in COMEX silver futures is an example of an enormously concentrated futures position.  

According to the latest Bank Participation in Futures and Options Markets report, as of March 3, 2009, two U.S. banks held zero long and 30,838 contracts short with silver then at $12.83 and with 93,051 COMEX 5,000-ounce contracts open. So, just two banks held net short positions equal to 33.14% of all the open contracts on the largest futures bourse in the world.      The chart below shows the net positioning of the U.S. banks relative to the total number of all open contracts for silver on the COMEX, division of NYMEX. 

According to CFTC COT reports, during that 3/3 reporting week all COMEX commercial traders as a group – all of them – were collectively net short a total of 38,704 contracts, so just two very large U.S. banks held a shocking 79.68% of all the commercial net short positioning on the COMEX. The graph below shows the two U.S. banks net short positioning relative to all COMEX commercials net short positioning since 2006. 

 

 

               One potential problem with allowing overly-large positioning by just a few players is the potential for those elite traders to get into the position of having to trade in a particular direction in order to protect their position. The incentive for a trader running 1,000 contracts to try to move the market with the weight of his own trading would certainly be much less than a trader (or two traders in this case) with 30,000 contracts of one-way exposure.   

Sure, the COMEX is not the only market for silver in the world, but trading on the COMEX does indeed influence the trading for silver on all the other world markets, including the larger OTC markets based primarily in London. And sure, if silver were to be man-handled too low for too long buyers, acting in their own self interest, would step in and buy it back up to reality over time. Haven’t they already done exactly that in the real physical silver markets given the insanely high premiums for most physical silver products? 

One could argue the silver market is relatively small, and therefore prone to manipulation because it doesn’t take all that much capital to move the futures markets. Perhaps over short periods of time it actually is. But, this report leans toward the idea that the silver market is global and deep enough to discourage even the larger players from messing around with it too much or too long. 

On the other side of that silver coin, we also believe that the amount of physical silver available for investment by new investors is rapidly approaching a critical inflection point in the not-too-distant future. If we know it, anyone who would short the market knows it even better. We have to conclude that anyone who would consistently attempt to manipulate the silver market downward in the face of obvious and material supply constriction is either very stupid or is a phantom of coincidence.    

With that in mind, in an era when regulators allowed the Bernard Madoff scam to go unchecked for many years, even though they were handed the scamster on a silver platter by others in the same business eight or nine years ago, a scam ruining hundreds or thousands of innocent investors; in a period when ANY silver product being sold on the street carries with it extremely high premiums due to overwhelming public demand; in a period when investors have had their confidence severely shaken in all markets; can the COMEX continue to allow such one-sided and concentrated trading action to continue? Perhaps more to the point, shouldn’t the COMEX explain publicly why it has allowed that very concentrated short positioning by just two U.S. banks? 

Perhaps with more clarity would come more confidence.  

Got Gold Report Charts

2-year weekly gold

2-year weekly silver

3-year weekly HUI

2-year weekly Gold:HUI ratio

That’s it for this excerpt of the full Got Gold Report. GoldNewsletter.com subscribers enjoy access to all the Got Gold Report technical analysis and commentary as well as Brien Lundin’s timely advice and analysis of specific resource companies.

Until next time, as always, MIND YOUR STOPS. 

The above contains opinion and commentary of the author. Each person should study the issues carefully and, as always, make their own informed decisions.

Disclosure: The author currently holds a long position in iShares Silver Trust, net long SPDR Gold Shares and holds various long positions in mining and exploration companies.  

 

Are You Ready To Rock? – Good Investing! – jschulmansr
=========================================================

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Schedule automatic tweets, Thankyou for following me messages and much more! Be More Productive- Free signup… TweetLater.com

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

=========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

$INDU 7,225.89, +8.92, +0.1%) dropped a comparable amount — 8%– between Feb. 26 and March 9. But the average recommended stock market exposure among short-term stock market timing newsletters fell over this period by a grand total of just 4.5 percentage points. That’s a far cry from the 77 percentage points by which gold sentiment fell during its recent 8% decline.

=========================================================

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Crunch Time?

16 Monday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in Today

≈ 4 Comments

It is one thing to analyze on a long-term basis, and quite another to make short-term predictions. There is no doubt in my mind that silver is a rock solid long-term investment opportunity, with an absolutely spectacular risk to reward ratio and value. It’s just a matter of time before silver is priced substantially higher. As I…

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How to Catch A Fool

16 Monday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, Dan Norcini, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, Joe Foster, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, SWC, TARP, Technical Analysis, Ted Bultler, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on How to Catch A Fool

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Joe Foster, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

A new week and I have a new warning… What I mentioned before in previous posts is starting to happen. We are now starting to hear the “bottom” is coming in place for Stocks and the Economy, everyone from Benanke to many “name” financial advisors are starting to jump on the bandwagon. Sure enough this morning the “sheeple” started to put their money back into stocks. The Dow is currently up 70 points and Gold was down $13.00. Nasdaq hasn’t ever gotten out of the negative yet today. This is how I see it- we will probably have a nice rally at least this morning as smaill investors pile in thinking “we are close to the bottom or at it so lets get in now so we won’t miss it!” My key resistance points for the Dow, are around 7300- 7320 and the S&P 500, 770-775. If those are cleared we have the potential for a really big up day. However if the markets can not successfully get above those points, Bang! the Bear Trap is sprung!. Be careful out there and Buy Gold now while you can still catch the market before we run to $1050, and later by end of year $1250-$1500, maybe even higher as inflation will really be clicking in from all the money flooding the world economies now. I especially like the Precious Metals producers as a whole many good bargains to be found out there. Even bullion bought now should produce minimum $100+ oz. gain over the next few months. Be a wise and prudent investor – not a “fool”. Remember a “fool” and his money are soon parted! Good Investing- jschulmansr 

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

=========================================================

 

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!Schedule automatic tweets, Thankyou for following me messages and much more! Be More Productive- Free signup… TweetLater.com

 

=========================================================

Guru’s Say Bottom Near – Financial Times

Source: Financial Times

Gurus say bottom near

By Pauline Skypala

Published: March 15 2009 09:36 | Last updated: March 15 2009 09:36

 

He said much the same in October last year, so in a video interview, FTfm asked why he thought he was right this time. Opening with the remark that it is “very difficult” to get market timing right, Mr Bolton said he looked at three factors: the history of bull and bear market cycles; sentiment – how investors are behaving and thinking; and valuations. Those reached an extreme back in November that he thought might have marked the final low, and again in the first week of March.

“That is why I think we are pretty near the end of this pretty awful bear market,” he said.

He is not talking about a bear market rally, he added, but the start of a new bull market. Mr Bolton, and Fidelity International, generally advise against trying to time markets. Investors should hold on through thick and thin to avoid missing out on the best days that often come when the market turns, they have frequently said.

Mr Bolton now appears to be timing markets. He admits to being “a bit foolhardy going against my own advice” but remains consistent in putting out the message that it is hard to time markets and most private investors should employ a buy and hold strategy.

He believes all risk assets are now attractive, not just equities. The only one that looks less attractive is government bonds, where there could be a bubble building, he says.

He is not alone in his assessment. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, told clients in a newsletter last week to adopt a reinvestment plan and stick to it.

GMO made one very large reinvestment move in October and has a schedule for further moves contingent on future market declines, he says, in the belief that a few large steps are better than many small ones.

Mr Grantham is not brimming with confidence but says it is vital to have a battle plan, otherwise paralysis sets in. He points out that in June 1933 the US market rallied 105 per cent in six months long before all the bad news had played out. Similarly, in 1974, the UK market jumped by 148 per cent in five months. “How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves?” he asks.

In common with Mr Bolton, he advises the market is a powerful discounting mechanism. Investors who wait for light at the end of the tunnel will miss the upturn.

The market turns “when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before”.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

=========================================================

Fed’s Bernanke sees recession ending ‘this year’ – Market Watch

Source: Market Watch

Calls health of banks key, but worries about lack of ‘political will’

By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The chairman of the Federal Reserve said in a rare interview televised Sunday that the U.S. recession will come to an end “probably this year,” but he also warned that the nation’s 8.1% unemployment rate will continue to rise.
Appearing on the CBS network’s “60 Minutes,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told correspondent Scott Pelley that concerted efforts by the government likely averted a depression similar to the 1930s. He also said the nation’s largest banks are solvent and that he doesn’t expect any of them to fail.
At the same time, Bernanke expressed concern the U.S. might lack the political will to take further measures to shore up the financial system. Although he said he believes the largest banks are solvent and that “they are not going to fail,” Bernanke said a full recovery won’t take place until the system is stabilized.
“The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis,” he said. Bernanke noted that banks are unable to raise cash from private investors as is normally the case because of fears about their solvency.
The 15-month recession, which began in December 2007, is set to become the longest in the post-World War II era. The downturn took a sharp turn for the worst last September after the collapse of the Wall Street brokerage Lehman Brothers.
“Lehman proved that you cannot let a large internationally active firm fail in the middle of a financial crisis,” Bernanke said.
The same error was made 80 years ago when the U.S. government let thousands of banks fail, contributing to the Great Depression, said Bernanke, a former economics professor who’s extensively studied the 1930s. Another big mistake the Fed made back then was to let the supply of money contract, he said.
Since the crisis exploded last fall, Bernanke has sought to avoid both mistakes. The Fed and Treasury have committed hundreds of billons to the bailouts of banks, insurers, mortgage lenders and other entities. While Bernanke said he understood the public’s outrage at the cost, he said they were necessary to prevent a more severe contraction and steeper job losses.
Bernanke also pointed out the bailout aid doesn’t come directly from taxpayers and is “more akin to printing money than it is borrowing.” He said the Fed can adopt that approach because the economy is very weak and inflation is low.
Once the economy begins to recover, Bernanke said, the Fed will have to raise interest rates and reduce the supply of money to “make sure we have a recovery that does not involve inflation.”
The Fed chairman said the recovery won’t begin until early 2010 and will take time to gather steam. He reiterated his call for an overhaul of the nation’s financial regulations — the first in decades — to prevent similar financial conflagrations.
Bernanke is the first sitting Fed chairman to conduct a television interview in 20 years. End of Story
Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
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What Do Those Who Called The Downturn Think? – MarketWatch
Source: MarketWatch
OUTSIDE THE BOX

A few who got it right

Commentary: What do those who called the

downturn think?

By Howard Gold
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) — The financial markets are littered with the broken reputations of so-called “experts” who failed to anticipate the global financial crisis, or the recession and bear market that have followed.
Finance ministers, central bankers, Wall Street strategists, famed economists, hotshot hedge-fund bosses, former star mutual fund managers and, yes, journalists and cable-television bloviators all dropped the ball big time in the years leading up to the current meltdown.
But a handful of brave souls got it right. Economist Nouriel Roubini, analyst Meredith Whitney and some others have gone on to fame and fortune for warning about the disaster to come.
They weren’t alone. Economist Gary Shilling, options specialist Larry McMillan, strategist Sandy Jadeja and market technician Dan Sullivan all saw a big bear market ahead and advised moving money to the sidelines before the roof collapsed. We caught up with them in the midst of this week’s rally to get their take on what’s ahead.
Most believe we’re getting pretty close to a market bottom, but we’ll have to go through more pain before we get there. None thinks the current rally is for real.
Shilling, a longtime Cassandra and publisher of “Insight,” has warned about the housing and credit bubbles for years and repeatedly predicted that the current recession would be deep. His 13 predictions for 2008 were right on the money.
Excess housing
And guess what? He’s still bearish on housing. Shilling estimates there’s excess inventory of 2.4 million homes on the market and “it’s taking a long time to work that [down.]”
That’s why home prices have a way to go before they bottom: He’s looking for a peak-to- trough decline of 40% in housing prices nationwide. As of the fourth quarter, the 20-city Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index had fallen 27% from its high in 2006.
At the bottom, Shilling expects some 25 million borrowers will be underwater on their mortgages. That’s half of all mortgages and one-third of all owned houses in the U.S. Similarly, he doesn’t think the current recession will end until at least early 2010. That would make this the longest recession by far since World War II.
He thinks the market might actually bottom some time this summer at around 600 on the S&P 500 – at 15 times estimated earnings of $40 — six months or so before the economy does. But he doesn’t see prosperity just around the corner.
“It took about 30 years to build up the credit bubble,” he says. “My guess is, five to ten years to unwind this.”
“What it probably means,” he explains, “is longer and deeper recessions and shorter recoveries — and reflecting that, shorter, less exuberant rallies and more frequent and deeper bear markets.”
Thanks, Gary.
Short-term concerns
Options specialist Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp., typically looks at trading patterns over weeks and months rather than years. But he still doesn’t like what he sees.
“I don’t see a bottom in this leg here,” he says. “I find this market to be strangely calm. People have not panicked. All the pros are picking the bottom.”
That, he argues, means investors haven’t capitulated yet, the true sign of a market bottom.
McMillan has been cautious since late 2007, although he has traded in and out of rallies. He can’t say where the ultimate bottom will be. “I don’t have a target,” he says. “I’m looking for a spike in volatility that washes this thing out.”
He’s waiting for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, or VIX, to shoot up into the 60s from the 40s and 50s now, and then fall back. “That to me would be capitulation,” he says.
Until then, he advises being out of the market — or staying short.
Market projections
Technical analyst Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist for ODL Markets in London, did have a target: 6425 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On March 9, the Dow hit 6440 at one point before Tuesday’s massive rally.
He thinks Wednesday’s higher close for the Dow is a good sign for the short run. The Dow was up nicely Thursday morning on retail sales data that were slightly better than expected. He’s looking for a rally that would take the Dow back up to 8300.
But don’t count on much more than that, he cautions.
He says 6400 is “a critical level going back to 1987, the 1930s and the 2002 lows.” He expects it to be retested, and if the market can’t hold that support level, then it could go a lot lower.
He thinks the bear market could hit bottom in 2010 or even 2011 or 2012. “5300 is the most probable low,” he says. But Fibonacci and Elliot Wave analysis — tools used by technical analysts — may point toward 3700-3800 as the ultimate bottom. Ouch.
Less gloomy
Another prominent technician isn’t quite that gloomy. Dan Sullivan, who has published “The Chartist” newsletter for four decades and has beaten the market consistently over the last 25 years, according to the “Hulbert Financial Digest,” advised clients to go 100% into cash as early as January 2008.
He, too, is looking for a 15%-20% rally that would take us into the 800s on the S&P 500, but then he says we’ll retest Monday’s S&P close of around 676.
“I think it’s a bear-market rally, so I’m advising subscribers to sell into the rally [or stay on the sidelines],” he tells me.
Like Shilling, he expects to see a market bottom or new buy signal some time during the summer. But for now, he says, “this is not a good time to buy.”
That’s my take, too. Although the Dow and S&P have lost more than half their value — no doubt the lion’s share of what we’re going to see in this bear market — I think we have more to go on the down side in view of the knotty problems we face.
So, if you’re young and saving for a distant retirement, this isn’t a bad time to make regular contributions to a 401 (k) plan.
But if you’ll need that money sooner, I’d keep my powder dry, and wait for those who really got it right to change their minds.
Howard R. Gold is executive editor of MoneyShow.com. The opinions expressed here are his own. End of Story
=======================================================

Joe Foster: Chemistry Is Good For Gold – Seeking Alpha

Source: SeekingAlpha and The Gold Report


In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, geologist Joseph M. Foster—a Van Eck Associates portfolio manager who also leads its International Investors Gold Fund—sees nothing but good news for gold in the months and years to come. Joe isn’t holding his breath for mania to set in, but he does see a mix blending that will get gold “firing on all cylinders.” Once a declining dollar, increasing inflation and an improving economy fill the combustion chamber, all it will take is a sustained spark of optimism for gold to forge ahead.
The Gold Report: We appreciate the opportunity to talk with you fresh from site visits in Mexico and the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference in Florida. What do you see for gold in ’09 and ’10?
Joe Foster: Our outlook is quite favorable. We’re into a new phase of this bull market that’s been going on since 2001. The credit crisis, everything that’s happening to the global economy and the reaction of the governments and the monetary authorities set up a very, very positive environment for gold, not only in the near term, but going out many, many years.
TGR:What launched this the new phase?

JF: Earlier in the cycle, it was more an inverse dollar play. We’ve had a bull market in gold. The dollar had embarked on a bear market and gold reacted to the inverse of that. What’s changed is that the level of risk to the financial system has elevated dramatically and we’ve come into an environment where even if we have a strong dollar, we can also have a strong gold price. Investors are genuinely frightened and it’s brought a whole new dynamic to the gold market.

TGR:Where do you see this taking gold?

JF: I’d have to split it into a near-term and a longer-term outlook. First of all, looking at the near term, gold is finding support now because we are in crisis mode. The financial system has not been fixed yet. The economy is in decline. In that environment, investors are seeking gold as a safe haven. They’re also seeking out the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. So that’s creating investment demand for the metal.

Jewelry demand, however, has fallen off a cliff—it’s almost non-existent right now and a lot of scrap is coming into the market. Two dynamics in the gold market are pulling against each other: strong investment demand and very weak jewelry demand. I would see gold somewhat range-bound as long as we’re in crisis mode, being pulled by these two factors. We test $1,000, we pulled back, we’re sitting here around $940 an ounce. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it range-bound between $800 and $1,100 an ounce for the next six months or so until we see some sort of resolution to the situation.

As we look further out, you have to wonder if everything the government is doing will work and whether the laws of unintended consequences play out down the road. Will all this stimulus create inflationary pressure looking out into 2010 and beyond as the economy starts to get back on track? I happen to think it will. At some point, it will come time for the government to withdraw the liquidity they’ve put in the system. However, I think we’ll be in a slow-growth environment that will make that very, very difficult.

We won’t have the access to credit that we had in the past. Credit creation fueled a lot of the growth over the last decade. That will be missing in the next growth phase, so I think we’ll be faced with a low-growth environment that will make it difficult for the Fed to raise rates and rein in liquidity. As the velocity of money begins to pick up when the economy starts to grow a bit, I think we will see some serious inflationary pressures. That will give gold the next leg to stand on and lift it to the next level, which I think will be much higher than what we’ve seen so far.

TGR: In essence, aren’t we going back to an inverse play based on the U.S. dollar? That was the first phase. Now we’re in this crisis phase. As we move into an inflationary era, aren’t we just hedging against the dollar at that point?

JF: Yes, that’s another aspect of what I’m talking about, too. How does the dollar play out in this scenario? As long as we’re in crisis mode, people think of the dollar as a safe haven. As soon as we see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, equities and other investments will begin to attract investment dollars. At that point, I think money flows out of the dollar. So the dollar could resume its downward trend with a better economic outlook and that would be positive for the gold market.

TGR:So we’d go back to dollar going down, gold going up.

JF: Yes, back to that situation. And then when you layer some inflationary expectations on that, you get gold firing on all cylinders.

TGR:Is that when we begin to see mania or is that the next phase?

JF: As markets go, there probably will be a mania in the gold market as well, but I would guess that’s a number of years off. Who knows? But at least several years off.

TGR: What will trigger the mania? If we’ve made it through the banking and financial and economic crises, and are looking for money to fly back into equities and devalue the dollar, why is mania several years off? Why wouldn’t it be happening as these other shifts begin to occur?

JF: The economy needs to be doing better. Money is too tight. I just don’t think there’s enough liquidity, frankly, to support a mania in the current environment. We need a more positive economic environment to get a true mania going and pull everybody from mom and pop up to the high net worth investors to the institutions, everybody jumping in with both feet. I don’t think there’s enough liquidity in the system at this point, or perhaps it’s all on the sidelines.

TGR: How interesting. So maybe fear won’t spark the mania. You’re almost saying the mania will start when there’s a little bit more optimism.

JF:That’s right, if it happens it will probably occur with more optimism and more entrenched inflationary expectations.

TGR:When you talk about gold, are you talking about bullion or gold stocks?

JF: I’m talking about both, definitely. There’s a different dynamic playing out with the gold stocks because we have to look at earnings and operating risk and political risk and all these other things, but historically there’s been a very high correlation between gold and the gold shares, and I expect that to continue throughout this market.

TGR:Will we see more of that in inflation or in crisis mode?

JF: As far as gold shares go, their crisis was the second half of 2008. They got caught up in the downdraft of the credit crisis and the equities collapse. The stocks have roughly doubled since they bottomed in October of 2008. Gold is up roughly 25% to 30% and we’re seeing money come into the gold sector. A lot of equity financing amongst the gold companies lately tells you there are investment dollars available to the sector. So I think the gold market and gold equities are out of crisis mode. They’re being recognized as an alternative, as a safe-haven hedge.

TGR:And an inflation play, I imagine.

JF: Yeah. The inflation play, or at least a flavor of it, will be with us. People see the Fed printing money to support the financial system, which creates a level of inflationary fear already—and it’s very, very early days. Then the next phase will be if and when we get evidence that inflation is actually taking place, when we see various economic measures telling us that inflation is starting to pick up. Those fears will intensify then. Even though we’re in a deflationary environment at the moment, the seeds of inflation it are already there.

TGR:How do you see silver reacting relative to gold?

JF: Looking at its performance over the last three or four months, I think it’s shown itself to be a currency hedge and a currency alternative like gold. Silver had a tough time last year. It tumbled with the base metals. But again, since October, the performance has been good and we’re seeing high demand for the silver ETF, a shortage of coins and bars. So it’s acting as a currency alternative just like gold now.

TGR:What do you make of the shortage of the coins and the premiums to the spot price?

JF: It’s a small but growing corner of the market, so to me it’s an indicator of investor sentiment. It’s not that big a demand driver. When you look at the tonnage, it’s modest. But it tells me that the sentiment among investors, especially individuals, is very positive. From what I hear, it’s mainly high net worth individuals who are buying the stuff up with a long-term view. It’s quite a leap to go out and invest in physical gold. If a few are actually doing it, then many, many more are probably considering it.

TGR:Would you like to talk about some companies you currently own and think other investors should be considering?

JF:

Growth is a common theme among the larger companies that we overweight. We like a growth story because good news flow comes with growth. Hopefully, we can find managements that can deliver the growth and meet expectations for production and costs. Among the large caps, one of our favorites in that category would be

Goldcorp

(GG). They’re mining mainly throughout the Americas. Most of their mines are in politically safe areas. They’re great operators and are developing some deposits—one in Mexico, called Penasquito; and the other one in a JV with

Barrick Gold Corporation

(ABX) in the Dominican Republic, called Pueblo Viejo. They’re going to drive Goldcorp’s growth for the next several years, and we see some good numbers coming out of Goldcorp looking forward.

TGR:And moving down the ladder?

JF:Going down into the mid-tier group, I guess Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD) would be our favorite in that category. Their operations are in West Africa. Randgold’s growth has come organically, which is really the best kind of growth. They discovered the properties where they’re mining and developing, and that’s the cheapest way to add ounces to the portfolio. Currently they’ve got a developing property in Senegal, which is early days but we see it turning in to a significant mine. Perhaps looking out three or four years, that will add significantly to their bottom line. It’s another internal discovery, so very cheap ounces coming on line for that company. Also, we’ve been to West Africa and Randgold is probably the best connected, knows the Continent probably better than any other company out there. So they’re one of our top mid-tier companies.

Going down to the small caps, we’re seeing exciting plays in several areas with the small caps, mainly in the Americas, particularly Canada. There’s been a resurgence of activity in Canada in some of the old mining camps. We’re seeing new discoveries and new developments that we’re very excited about. Mexico and other parts of Latin America look very favorable to us as well.

In Canada, one of the emerging producers would be Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSGGF.PK). In the Timmins camp, they’ve made a discovery where nobody thought to look before. And Timmins is historically one of the largest producing camps in North America, so there’s still gold to be found there. Lake Shore is developing an underground mine there that we think will be very profitable and should come on line over the next couple of years.

Another Canada small cap is Osisko Mining Corp (OSKFF.PK). They’re in the Val d’Or camp, an old mining camp. They’ve found a very large low-grade deposit that they’re developing there and I guess it will be the first large-scale, low-grade, world-class deposit that’s been developed in Val d’Or. The company just raised enough money to develop it. It’s going to be expensive, costing north of a half a billion dollars, but investors have shown confidence in the company and that they raised over $300 million just this month to build it. They’re well on their way to becoming the next gold producer.

TGR:Does Osisko have a 43-101 on that Val d’Or property?

JF: Yes, it has. After going through several iterations of their resource estimate, more recently they found a new zone they call the Barnett Zone. It’s higher grade than what they’ve found in the past, so it appears to be shaping as a sweetener that will enable them to get a more rapid payback once they begin production. The project is getting better as it moves along.

TGR:Does your website list the stocks you’re invested in?

JF: We publish the full portfolio twice a year with our semi-annual and annual reporting, so for the most recent you’d have to pull up our December 2008 report. Also, our website publishes our top 10 every month.

TGR:Do we do that through the site or we can find that on the site?

JF:Just go to vaneck.com and you can bring up a PDF. (http://vaneck.com/sld/vaneck//offerings/factsheets/IIG_Factsheet.pdf )

=======================================================
Be cautious out there, especially if going back into Stocks (even mining stocks), do your due diligence and stay tuned for more of the best news and views personally handpicked for my most valued readers! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

=========================================================
Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault
=========================================================

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A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment gurus are lining up to call the bottom of the market. Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International did so last week, telling delegates at a pensions conference markets were at or near lows.

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And the Winner Is…

13 Friday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, agricultural commodities, alternate energy, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, Barack, Barack Hussein Obama, Barack Obama, bear market, bull market, capitalism, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, Contrarian, Copper, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, Finance, financial, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, NAK, oil, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, prices, producers, production, rare earth metals, recession, risk, safety, Saudi Arabia, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Today, U.S. Dollar, uranium, Uranium Miners, XAU

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Wow! again what a week in all of the markets. Gold is continuing to slowly build into a major rally, look for $1050 to go down this time! We have seen the retracement in the stocks (normal retracement) in a very bear marketas I also mentioned earlier. I still have my 720 Sp 500 puts and look for a nice pop before next weeks expiration. Continue to accumulate more mining stocks and I hope you got in to DGP when I did and let you know via twitter on Monday. The winner if you haven’t guessed is Gold! We have a new player entering into the melee. Crude Oil has finally flashed it’s first buy signal in 18 months. Look for strong resistance at the $50 mark. If it clears then we’re back to $80 minimum, probably $100 in the first leg. I would play this one slowly as there still is a huge pool sitting out there in tankers to be used up first before we can get into a serious rally in Crude Oil and distillates. One thing to mention is our President Obama, at least he waited until the close of markets before speaking yesterday, it almost seems he is determined to drive the stock markets down. If the Dow doesn’t hold here then the 5000 range for the Dow is not out of the question in fact a very real possibility; a full 70% retracement would actually take us down to the 4500 level. Protect yourself and Buy Gold any form and BUY it NOW! Good Investing! jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault here…

===========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people. me2everyone.com

=========================================================

 

 

Can the U.S. survive $80 crude oil?- INO.COM
 

Source: INO.com

For the first time since September of 2007, the crude oil (NYME_CL) market has flashed a positive signal that it is headed higher. This is the first buy signal that we have seen in over 18 months in the energy markets. 

 

The big question is, if crude oil is headed higher, how much of a price increase can the US economy afford and withstand?

Here is a raw commodity that is used by everyone and the US has no control over. This key commodity to commerce just happens to be in areas that are normally hostile to the US. If we see a hiccup in the supply chain that changes this market dynamic, even for a short time period, we could see oil move back to the $80/barrel range in a heart beat.

So how will this affect the US equity markets? If crude oil heads back to the $75-$80 range, I expect that the major indices will head south. I call it the 551 syndrome. 5000 on the Dow, 500 on the S&P 500, and finally 1000 on the NASDAQ.

In this short video I will share with you the potential target zones we could see in the next 6 to 12 months in crude oil.

So with the trend in crude oil in a positive trajectory and the trend in the US equity markets in a negative trajectory, I think the two will feed off themselves. Look for traders and hedge funds to move aggressively in both these areas with abandon.

Lastly with no reinstatement of the up-tick rule, expect stocks to once again get pummeled to oblivion.

Enjoy the video and all the best in trading,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-founder, MarketClub

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Sell the Swiss Franc, Buy Gold- Seeking Alpha 

Source: FP Trading Desk

“Forceful relaxation” – it brings to mind a trader at a Mexican beach resort, not Swiss monetary policy, but that is exactly what the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced in its Monetary Policy Assessment Wednesday, joining a growing chorus of central banks engaging in quantitative easing. Sell the franc and buy gold.

The SNB cut its target range for three-month Libor by 25 basis points to a range of 0–0.75% and announced plans to purchase domestic bonds from the private sector and sell francs in the open market. The resulting biggest ever one-day drop in the franc versus the euro and dollar is likely to be followed by franc depreciation over the next year.

Swiss lending to foreigners brings new meaning to Lord Polonius’s advice to Laertes to “neither a borrower nor a lender be.” The Swiss risk losing more than the friendship of the Hungarians who borrowed extensively in Swiss Franc between 2006 and 2008. They also risk losing their money as Eastern Europe struggles under a mountain of debt. All told, Swiss banks claims on foreigners rose from five times Swiss GDP in 2000 to roughly eight times GDP in mid-2007, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The majority of these claims are denominated in US dollars, and that factor will continue to put pressure on the franc versus the dollar over the next year. Swiss banks’ net US dollar books approached $300 billion by mid-2007, according to the BIS.

Now that the SNB is actively trying to push the franc down to raise inflation expectations in Switzerland, watch out. This policy raises the prospects for franc depreciation and increases the case for owning gold versus all reserve currencies.

=====================================================================

Related: This is one of a multitude of reasons to Buy Gold-see next article below – jschulmansr

Swiss Action sparks talk of ‘Currency War’ – Financial Times

Source: Financial Times

By Peter Garnham in London

Published: March 12 2009 20:14 | Last updated: March 12 2009 20:14

The Swiss National Bank moved to weaken the Swiss franc on Thursday, the first time a big central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange markets since Japan sought to weaken the yen in 2004.

The bank’s move, which sparked fears that other countries could follow suit, comes as the value of the Swiss franc has soared as investors seek a haven from the recent market turmoil. In October, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, it rose to a record high of about SFr1.43 against the euro, a level it has come close to again in recent weeks.

 

But it fell to its lowest level this year on Thursday after the SNB said the currency’s strength represented an “inappropriate tightening of monetary conditions” as it battled against a slowdown in the Swiss economy.

“In view of this development, the SNB has decided to purchase foreign currency on the foreign exchange market to prevent any further appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro,” the central bank said.

The Swiss franc dropped 2.6 per cent to SFr1.5192 against the euro and dropped 3.2 per cent to $1.1894 against the dollar.

Analysts said the move was likely to increase talk that countries were set to engage in a bout of competitive devaluation.

“Let the currency wars begin,” said Chris Turner at ING Financial Markets.

Countries around the world faced with the constraint of zero interest rate levels might feel it was acceptable to intervene to weaken their currencies in order to ease monetary conditions, he said, adding that other export-dependent economies such as Japan would “probably be at the head of the queue”.

Michael Woolfolk at Bank of New York Mellon agreed.

“Market intervention by a major central bank such as the SNB opens up the door for other central banks, namely the Bank of Japan, to follow suit,” he said. “The yen is widely perceived in Japan to be overvalued.”

The SNB also cut its interest rates by 25 basis points, taking its three-month Libor target range down to zero to 0.75 per cent, and announced plans to adopt a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy.

Analysts said the move towards quantitative easing was sparked by a drastic revision to the central bank’s forecast for growth, which is now expected to fall between 2.5 and 3 per cent in 2009, much worse than its previous forecast of a drop of between 0.5 and 1 per cent.

The SNB said economic conditions had deteriorated sharply since its last policy meeting in December and that there was a risk of deflation over the next three years.

“Decisive action is thus called for, to forcefully relax monetary conditions,” the central bank said.

Additional reporting by Haig Simonian in Zurich

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

====================================================

John Embry: Gold and Silver Are the Ultimate Insurance Policy- Seeking Alpha

By: Andrew Mickey of Q1 Publishing

John Embry: Exclusive Interview with Canada’s Foremost Gold Investor

Is gold the next “hot” investment? Or will it never break through the $1,000 threshold?

Some of the world’s leading investors are currently placing their bets.

For instance, hedge fund manager David Einhorn recently bet big on gold. Einhorn manages $6 billion at Greenlight Capital and has averaged a 20% annualized return by booking only one losing year since 1996 (last year). His fund recently bought more than $200 million of SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) and more than $75 million worth of Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (NYSE:GDX).

On top of that, the big money managers have already pumped billions of dollars directly into gold mining companies to fund takeovers and new mines and expansion.

It’s looking like a lot of smart and big money is betting on gold. And as the financial markets, economy, and future outlook worsen, gold is holding up as a last bastion of hope for many investors.

How can you get in on it? Is it just gold? What about silver? Where are the real values to be had? What about other hard assets – water, agriculture, etc.?

It’s best to start getting prepared now.

Most recently, Q1 Publishing’s own Andrew Mickey, editor of the Prosperity Dispatch, had a private one-on-one conversation with John Embry, one of the leading gold investors in the world.

Embry has been following the gold sector for 35 years (that’s since the early 1970’s) and is one of the leading authorities on gold. Embry is currently the Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Asset Management – a legendary name to long-time gold investors.

Prior to joining Sprott, Embry oversaw more than $5 billion in assets including the Royal Precious Metal Fund as VP, Equities and Portfolio Manager for RBC, a top-tier Canadian bank. Under his watch, the Royal Precious Metals Fund returned 153% in 2002 and was ranked #1 across all funds in Canada (remember 2002 was a horrible year for stocks as tech stocks continued to fall).

Andrew Mickey: Precious metals have been getting a lot of attention lately. But it seems like there has been a divergence between gold and silver. We’ve been watching the gold to silver ratio (the number of ounces of silver which can be bought for an ounce of gold) get wider and wider. Gold to platinum too. Do you see the divergence tied to the industrial aspect of metals like platinum and silver, gold is the supreme precious metal, or is there something else going on behind the scenes?

John Embry: No – it’s a very strong manipulative aspect at work. If you go to the COMEX and look at the trading patterns and the short positions and such, clearly the prices are being messed around with.

Silver is a smaller market and can be messed around with more easily. I think silver probably has a bit more upside potential because the price is so far behind where it should be.

Andrew Mickey: So do you see silver as one of the bright spots?

John Embry: Oh yeah, it’s an extreme bright spot. I could easily see it three times where it is now in the not-that-distant future.

Andrew Mickey: As far as gold supply, there is one period in the world gold supply where gold production kind of crested around 2007 or 2008. Are we facing a “Peak Gold” kind of situation?

John Embry: Yeah, we have most assuredly crested in terms of mine supply without question.

Andrew Mickey: So, when you look at five, ten years out…let’s say in a world where gold is $2000 or $3000 or higher, how much more gold can realistically be produced in a year?

John Embry: Zero, I think. In fact, I think you probably need a lot more lead time – maybe five to ten years.

Just look at what happened in the ‘70s. The gold price went from $35 to $800 and, believe it or not, gold production was at a lower level worldwide after that 10-year period.

Now, the big question is what will happen this time? Number one, a lot of the existing mines are being depleted quite rapidly. Number two, when the gold price goes up a lot, mines generally tend to sort of drop the grade they mine because they can make a lot of money with lower grade and they can keep the good stuff for the bad times.

So by definition, they will be mining in the same number of tons but they will be taking the gold grade out of it, so collectively they will be mining less gold. They will make more money because the price is up but they will be mining less.

The other problem is that so many of the new interesting deposits that may or may not be developed in the future are located in these God-awful third world countries. They are having a real battle now with the governments, getting permitting, deciding who makes the money out of the mine, environmental issues etc. The gold deposits are all over the place and the governments are going to delay projects.

Say you find an ore body today. It would probably take a minimum of five years before the gold hits the market with all the attendant problems there are getting it into production. So all that’s already baked in the cake. The gold price could be doing anything it wanted for the next four or five years…gold production isn’t going to increase much – if any – at all.

Andrew Mickey: Amazing, gold production declining in the last great bull market for gold. So what does this mean for gold stocks, from your perspective? Where should we focus our investments across the whole range – from explorers all the way up to the majors?

John Embry: Right now, I think the majors are reasonably priced compared to the overall list. People have sort of focused on liquidity so they have gone after the majors and they bid them up aggressively and left a lot of the more illiquid situations behind.

That will all change. As gold becomes more popular and the price rises, at that point, money will filter down the food chain from the larger companies and they will go looking for the good quality smaller ones.

I particularly like some of the smaller producers now for a lot of reasons.

For one, they are going to make a ton of money in the current environment, particularly if they are producing outside the United States. Like some of the ones that are producing in Canada. The gold price yesterday was I believe $1,230 Canadian.

Another reason is because all of the costs of gold mining are dropping right now. Energy costs, steel prices, and all the things that went up so much and really hurt gold miners’ profitability. They are all going the other way now and at the same time the price of gold is going up. So I think that people are going to be pleasantly surprised going forward by the profitability of some of these mines, which have struggled up until recently.

So I am pretty bullish on small producers and anybody who has got a legitimate ore body that can be exploited sometime within the foreseeable future. I think they are going to be viewed positively too.

But the key thing to focus on is when their production will begin. If they don’t have to worry about getting through the environmental hurdles and getting the finance and et cetera, et cetera, they are going to make a lot of money.

Andrew Mickey: What do you see as the potential risks of politics and environmental concerns preventing anyone from starting production?

John Embry: They are not necessarily preventing a company from going into production, but they are certainly delaying it.

My favorite example is that probably the best ore body that’s been discovered in the last 10 years is Aurelian’s in Ecuador; which was subsequently acquired by Kinross (KGC). But the fact is, as long as the current government in Ecuador stays in power…I just don’t see the thing entering production.

So that’s what I am talking about. It’s such a fabulous mine if it were in a good geopolitical environment. It would be being built as we speak, but there is no progress towards building it at this point.

Andrew Mickey: The gold ETF (like the GLD) has been the number one recommended way to invest in gold in the U.S.

It’s a hot subject of debate by those who are new to gold and those which have been following it for while. The new people to gold always recommend the GLD. What are your thoughts?

John Embry: Well, they are just plain wrong in my opinion.

I think gold and silver are the ultimate insurance policy. When things got really bad in the system you want to make sure the vehicle you own has the gold and silver that it allegedly is supposed to have.

Now, I may buy gold and have it in my own possession. I know I have it. And then there are other gold and silver vehicles like Central Fund of Canada (NYSE:CEF) or Central Gold-Trust (NYSE:GTU), to cite a couple, where the gold is allocated. It’s in a vault and there are regular audits to prove everything that’s behind the vehicle is in fact there. So you are getting what you pay for.

Now, in the case of the ETF I am not totally sure. I mean if you read their prospectuses closely enough you’ll see there is some wiggle room. What they are trying to do is just track the gold price so you don’t necessarily need the physical gold. They could be using paper derivative types of products to back the stock.

What really made me kind of uncomfortable recently, was there was this dramatic ramp up in the amount of money going into the GLD ETF in particular. I looked around and I am going like, where is gold coming from?

As you know, the gold market is acknowledged by virtually everybody to be tight. I know mine supply is falling, I know that – I didn’t see any appreciable change in any of the inventory levels or any of the recognized exchanges like COMEX etc., and there was no particular acceleration in the Central Bank dispositions. So my question is, if suddenly all this new buying appeared because of the ETF having to sort of stock up, where did the gold come from?

I am not sure it bought any gold. I think they might have gone to COMEX and just bought a paper contract.

I don’t know. I just think there are better vehicles than ETFs.

Andrew Mickey: Switching gears a little bit here, let’s talk about the big picture. Everyone wants to know what’s going on.

It’s a crazy time. What’s your take? What going on in the general markets and where are we headed?

John Embry: I think we are probably headed for the worst economic debacle since the Depression – if not worse than that.

And the response for that by governments around the world is going to be, I think, a blizzard of paper money creation. They will run massive deficits, trying to prop up these economies.

So I think the major development is going to be ongoing issues of currency debasement. The value of paper money against real tangible assets is going to fall considerably. Right now, we are going through this deflationary scare. It won’t last. It will change into a hyperinflationary environment in the not too distant future.

Andrew Mickey: A kind of stagflationary situation like we saw in the 1970’s?

John Embry: No, worse than that. I think the inflation would be more intense. The decline in economic activity will probably be worse.

Andrew Mickey: What are the kinds of conditions that bring us to that state? Is it avoidable?

John Embry: Basically, we have already put the conditions in place. We ran economies with constantly too much leverage and debt.

Eventually, you reach a certain point where you can’t really add any more debt because the capacity for the system to handle it has been exhausted. Once it reverses, it’s very hard to change. They are going to try to change it by simply debasing the money.

Andrew Mickey: You seem to focus on the debasement of currencies as a government “solution” – for lack of a better term – to the problem. What are some of the best ways to protect ourselves from this situation? Which are you employing?

John Embry: Our strategy is pretty simple. What we really like is the monetary precious metals gold and silver. We don’t like anything in the financial sphere at this time. The companies that we like are the more solid companies providing basic services and what have you. We like the ones which don’t have overly leveraged balance sheets.

Andrew Mickey: What about other real asset classes. There are other sectors I know you follow outside of precious metals like agriculture. That’s the one thing that I’ve been completely excited about for years, but had to turn and run from over the summer. What’s your take on it now? Is it time to wade back in?

John Embry: Well, I am with you on agriculture. It’s a necessity that we must eat.

I guess one of the positive aspects of global growth is that the third world became a bit more affluent. Improvement in their diets put more demand into the world for basic food stuffs. Now that’s slowed down a bit.

I think the real arbiter in the short run might be the climate. I see a lot of industry people bringing this up, changing sunspots. These changes in the sunspots suggest that we may be facing drought conditions in a lot of the world all at the same time.

If that’s the case, I think you are going to see massive food shortages which would underrate a considerable price appreciation in the food because there will be a real fight for it.

Andrew Mickey: So, I don’t want to get too technical with this subject, I assume that you’re referring to increasing activity in sunspots?

John Embry: Yes, there is increasing activity in sunspots; which apparently, sort of cools the world out. It’s really interesting because there has always been, as you know, there is debate about global warming.

I do believe that all this carbon release is creating global warming, but at the same time, we have this mass of long cycles in nature which sort of move from the ice age then back to a period where it gets too hot. In that cycle, we are headed towards cooling again and the sunspot is just one aspect of it.

Andrew Mickey: Can the sunspots cause some of the farming areas to change?

John Embry: Yes, they do. They have a role – for whatever reason – they have a major impact on increasing odds of getting hit by a drought. We have a lot of droughts going on in the world currently. There are droughts in Australia, South America, Northern China and Africa. But Africa has always had a drought.

There is a lot of food supply interruption. If a drought were to strike North America then that would really create a problem. I have seen some work suggesting that we are due for a drought based on certain cycle work.

Andrew Mickey: Okay, this is more or less an agricultural cycle that you are referring to I imagine. How long is this kind of agriculture cycle? Is it like an 80-year almost Dust Bowl scenario type?

John Embry: Well, yes…I hesitate to go there because…it’s like Murphy’s Law, “everything goes wrong at the same time.” And with the financial world right now in a mess the last thing we need is a sort of replay of the ‘30s in the agricultural space.

The pessimists among us think that there is a good probability that drought conditions could strike North America, and that would be the last thing I want to see.

Andrew Mickey: What about farmland then? It’s an asset class which has had extremely consistent returns over the past 50 to 60 years. But, we’ve been waiting for a time like this.

John Embry: Farmland prices have fallen off a cliff. I just saw a guy in Minneapolis; again, he was saying that farmland is on offer everywhere right now.

This is a great thing. I am now in favor of buying farmland at the right price and that price is probably – as we are cleaning this whole mess up – the right price is going to be reached.

Andrew Mickey: The same is true for all kinds of natural resources. Oil, natural gas, copper, iron ore, uranium, etc. They’re all over the world and the government s which control them are in position to really inhibit or assist private companies who want to exploit them.

Recent US policy changes favor certain alternative energies. The one that really concerns me is uranium. In your opinion, when we look at uranium, should we look at it as declining uranium supply from current mines and or how new power plants can come on line if they can’t get it? Which is the real problem? Or is it both?

John Embry: Excellent question. I do think there is a problem. The Cigar Lake up in Northern Saskatchewan has gone through all sorts of problems. Another major problem area is with the Olympic Dam mine in Australia. It has been having problems too.

So again, there’s an issue with existing production.

In that light, I think that’s going to make new discoveries. Quality discoveries in uranium which are really worthwhile and the problem, again, is how long it’s going to take to exploit them. There just aren’t too many good deposits. We had that huge run in uranium a couple of years ago, but a lot of the deposits were really junky.

The great advantage in uranium is that the true cost of producing the power, is in building the reactor. So, there’s a lot of flexibility there. They don’t care about what they have to pay for uranium just as long as they can get it.

So I think that’s one of the aspects I like about uranium. The price is sort of inelastic in that sense. Just because the price goes up doesn’t mean it’s going to start to reduce demand.

Andrew Mickey: With respect to potash, nitrogen and phosphate, where do you see opportunities there? Most people are familiar with potash, the high capital costs to build a mine and the like. Are there any opportunities in nitrogen and phosphate because it’s too easy, how do you guys kind of look at those

John Embry: Well, we actually – we meaning our Sprott Resource Corp – have been looking around for interesting opportunities in phosphate and what have you. We believe that as this whole agricultural thing unfolds that it will be a good business.

But right now, farmers are having trouble getting money like everybody else is. So really, there is a bit of a low in the fertilizer business. Looking for longer term opportunities, the short term is going to be a little problematic.

Andrew Mickey: Are there any other things that you think individual investors should keep in mind as this is the first time in a long time that any of us had to go through a downturn like this?

John Embry: Well, it’s downright ugly out there. I was born in United States and I am a huge admirer of the U.S. I think what’s happened is tragic. Consequently, people are looking to protect themselves and I really do think that precious metals in particular and solid commodity opportunities are going to be one way that’s going to pay off in the end.

Andrew Mickey: What’s your take on all the stimulus packages and infrastructure building and everything that’s going on there?

We have been really bearish on infrastructure companies. How can the government support these businesses which are mostly private?

John Embry: I think that you are right. Typically, the market overacts to these things and obviously the infrastructure spending is partly implied; because, it’s been neglected to such a great extent in North America.

We have the same problem in Canada. Our roads are falling apart. Really, they could spend a ton of money in the sector. Problem is, they don’t have the money. They are going to have to create it out of thin air.

Andrew Mickey: One last thing. Are you currently looking at or investing in water? If so, would you be looking into water rights or a pipe manufacturer for example?

John Embry: We haven’t done as much as we should have. I think water is going to be a major issue going forward.

As for ways to invest in water, I’m more interested in water rights. The good thing about Canada is, there is lots of water up here. The problem is going to be down in the U.S., particularly in Southwest and other areas. I just look at that and I shake my head.

Andrew Mickey: Well, thanks very much for spending some time with us. Is there anything else that you would like to add?

John Embry: Just that I think that it’s important that your readers know all this. The world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago.

Andrew Mickey: And probably it will be a lot different in another 10 years.

John Embry: Well, it would be a lot different looking back from five years from now too, you bet, but I think we will be stood in good stead, certainly being in precious metals and end products, I think those are the two that I like the best.

Andrew Mickey: Well, thanks for your time, I appreciate it.

John Embry: My pleasure. Anytime.

===========================================================
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·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle

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Have a Great Weekend!-jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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They’re At it Again? – Who’s Going to Win?

10 Tuesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, bear market, bull market, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Finance, financial, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, hard assets, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, Market Bubble, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, oil, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, small caps, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, Technical Analysis, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, XAU

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Sorry, I missed everyone yesterday, it was a very interesting day making this one wonder if we are not seeing more hidden central bank selling in a desperate measure to hold Gold Prices down. Sooner or later the shorts will have to fill which I believe will happen somewhere around the $1050 – $1100 range giving a big pump up. Meanwhile today’s action, we are once again seeing continued downward pressure with Gold holding at the $890 to $900 range. Personally, I think we will hold here at the $880 to $900 level, build strength after the Gold coming on the market is absorbed. If we don’t hold here then $850 is the next very strong support level. We’re having a nice little upward correction in the stock markets and this may be the 20% retracement rally  traders have been looking for. Mark my words we will soon here remarks like the “bottom is in place for stocks” and “now” is the time to get in at these low levels. After they sucker everyone in then we will see the Stock markets continue in their downward channel. In the meantime take advantage of this to load up on your Gold. Especially since we’ll hear the “double top” formation is in place comments and everyone will be giving up on Gold and Silver. I personally think we are forming a new pennant formation like the one that was formed around the $700- $750 level which then took off to $1000+. Based on that this formation should be the launch pad up to the $1250 level. I am aggressively buying  Precious Metals Miners with current or about to come on line production, accumulating some more physical holdings and hanging tight. When I have confirmation I will be re-entering DGP for another ride to at least $1000. I will post when I enter that trade and if you are following me on Twitter you’ll be the first to know. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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·          What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·          How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle

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Here you go- Bottom Calling For the Stock Market already!Barron’s Calls a Bottom – Seeking AlphaSure, stocks could slide much further — but they probably won’t. By most measures, they are downright cheap.

 

 

========================================== 

 

By: Eli Hoffman Senior Editor Seeking Alpha

Barron’s cover story this weekend basically calls a bottom to the bear, though not in quite so many words.

 After blaming Obama for much of stock market woes (“The lousy economy is the main factor, but stocks haven’t been helped by Obama administration proposals … It doesn’t help that the Street is calling this an “Obama bear market” and that some investors are looking to “Obama-proof” their portfolios…), Barron’s concedes that the president did get at least one thing right: stocks are cheap for investors with patience.

Barron’s says its research bears that out. Here’s why:

  1. Stocks are cheap relative to P/E – a Citigroup economist’s 2009 earnings estimate for S&P 500 components puts their collective P/E ratio at more than 13, which is where a bunch of bear markets bottomed – except 1974, ’82 and ’87 when P/E went as low as 8.5. If we get down to 10, S&P could fall another 25% to 500 and DJIA around 5,000. But that probably won’t happen, because in previous downturns Treasury yields were much higher, and because another Citigroup analyst says he’s seeing signs of panic.
  2. Stocks are cheap relative to GDP – at 60% of the $14T GDP, stocks are their cheapest relative to economic output since the early ’90s. But they’re still well higher than the lows of about 30-35% seen in the ’70s and early ’80s. Stocks are also cheap relative to book value – about 1.3 down from a high of 5 during the dot-com bubble.
  3. Stocks are cheap relative to gold – S&P 500 is now worth about 75% of the price of an ounce, vs. a peak of more than 5x in 2000. Over the past 40 years, the average stocks-to-gold ratio has been 1.6.

There’s also a lot of cash on the sidelines, Barron’s says, noting money-market funds now hold $4T – almost half of the market cap of U.S. stocks, and double the amount in money-market funds two years ago.

Barron’s expects stocks in defensive industries like drugs (PFE, LLY, MRK, BMY, SGP) and consumer goods (HNZ, KFT, PG, KO, GIS) to benefit from a return of confidence.

For those prone to bottom calling, or not, here’s some more food for thought:

  • Babak notes pessimism, as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey, is at record highs. A contrarian buy signal.
  • Todd Sullivan says that a couple weeks of positive economic data could cause extreme pessimism to make a rapid about-face.
  • Jason Schwartz thinks we’re in another bubble – one of uncertainty. Forget about buy-and-hold, he says – but short term gains on oversold stocks could be massive.
  • Meanwhile Mike Stathis, while noting stocks are very close to “fair value,” for what that’s worth, doesn’t mean the market won’t go lower. In fact, it probably will.

==================================

Here’s a nice piece with some good info about one of my personal longs (ABX).

Gold Mining or Gold Bullion Stocks for 2009? Seeking Alpha

By: Preston Poulter of PrestonPoulter.com

With Obama’s outrageous stimulus plans where the federal government is going to give out billions of dollars of handouts to the demand side of the economy, it’s no wonder gold is gaining ground while stocks have been falling. However, the question remains when is it time to buy? The answer is now. Gold has been consistently in an uptrend since October of last year. This is shown in the chart (click to enlarge) of a major gold ETF (GLD) [GLD: 90.57, -1.72 (-1.86%)] below. As you can see, gold is making a short short term pullback which signals a time to buy. With more talk of spending, including a world wide stimulus package, there is only further pressure on leading countries, currencies such as the U.S. dollar. These inflationary pressures may push gold to break the 2008 highs of around $1056.

But I’m not content just to park my money in physical gold and leave it at that. The trader in me wants to make a leveraged play to make the most off of gold’s bright future. Gold mining shares would seem an excellent play then. Not only do you get exposure to the gold market, but you get the benefits of stock ownership. In the past, whenever I would introduce the idea of owning gold as a form of investment, people would laugh my suggestion off because they just couldn’t imagine how anything would be better than owning “stocks for the long run.” Of course, they aren’t saying that anymore.

Gold mining shares are a nice compromise in terms of investment philosophy. If the American dollar does fall from grace as we goldbugs suggest, then owning shares of a gold mining company will be a tremendous boon. If the dollar continues to stubbornly hang on, and we somehow manage to resume normal economic growth, then I still own equities and should get the traditional benefits of equity appreciation.

The theory of owning gold mining equities is pretty easy, but the reality can be rather treacherous. Should you chose an established company with a lot of reserves or a junior company that mainly has a lot of promising prospects? One is more dependable and the other has the potential to be far more rewarding. It’s a similar discussion to blue chip versus tech stock debate we saw towards the end of last century.

For myself, I wanted an established company. Junior mining companies need a healthy amount of credit to develop their mining operations, and that wasn’t a chance I was prepared to take given the credit collapse of last year. That narrowed my focus down to just a couple of companies: Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX). I chose Barrick because it was the largest mining operation in the world and because, at the time, it was trading at a lower PE ratio than Newmont. As of this writing, Newmont has held up better over the last twelve months as shown in the graph below.

The relative stock performance of the two companies.
The relative stock performance of the two companies

Really the two companies were performing in tandem until the last month or so. Then Barrick shares had a rather sudden loss of value. Part of this loss of value is probably related to the loss Barrick announced for its fourth quarter. The company was able to sell its gold at a good profit margin, despite the temporary fourth quarter fall in the price of gold, but the company also wrote off a large portion of the value of an oil company it had acquired in the prior year. Like so many decisions that turn out wrongly, it seemed like a good idea at the time. Oil is a significant cost in the mining of gold, so it would make sense to buy an oil company in a rising oil market as a hedge against an increase in the cost of mining. Oil’s subsequent fall caught even Warren Buffett by surprise.

Having to write off the value of an oil company due to a collapse in the oil market seems like a one time event. So let’s instead compare Barrick and Newmont on their forward PE ratios, rather than the past twelve months. Barrick closed yesterday trading at a forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 15.71 compared to Newmont’s 16.43, which shows that you’re getting a discount for Barrick’s earnings over Newmont’s. The dividend ratio is even better: Barrick yields 1.4% compared to Newmont’s 1.0%. That’s 40% more money in your pocket for owning Barrick. Looking at these figures suggests Barrick is clearly the better company to own at these prices.

Going forward, it’s only a matter of time before the inflationary policies of the world’s central banks start forcing the gold price higher. However, Barrick will not perform well this year if we don’t see a return in the price of copper. There’s a significant amount of copper tied up in the gold ore that Barrick mines and in the past Barrick has been able to refine and sell it at a nice profit to held reduce the cost of its gold operations. For the year 2006-2008, Barrick was able to sell its copper at over $3 a pound and make a profit of over 50% on the sale. Yesterday copper closed around $1.65. If copper stays at that price the entire year, Barrick’s results will suffer. I’ve run a few simulations in a spreadsheet and here’s the numbers I get:

  • If gold averages the year at $950 an ounce and copper stays at $1.65 a pound, Barrick will earn $.94 a share.
  • If gold averages $1050 an ounce and copper stays at $1.65 a pound, Barrick will earn $1.78 a share.
  • If gold averages $950 an ounce and copper returns to $3 a pound, Barrick will earn $1.51 a share.

As you can see, the return of copper to its former levels is going to be just as significant to Barrick’s earnings as gold appreciating in value.

Since analysts estimate a 2009 EPS of $1.85, Barrick could suffer a significant down year if we don’t start to see copper return soon.

Looking beyond a year, I believe Barrick is positioned well. It is set to make money from an appreciation in copper, oil, or gold. That makes it a great place to be as we feel the effects of inflation, but in the short term gold bullion may represent a better investment.

Disclosure: Barrick common stock represents a significant portion of my investment portfolio.-Preston Poulter

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Gold Continues to Gain Ground – Seeking Alpha

Source: Bullish Bankers  – Justin DiPietro


Given the massive amount of money being pumped into the global economic system, higher prices down the road are a given. It’s possible that prices may fall in the short term, but no currency can withstand a determined onslaught by its own central bank and national government for long. I consider gold a no brainer in this environment. It’s a store of value that does well both in inflationary times and, as we saw last year, in deflationary times.

gld

-Justin DiPietro

Disclaimer: None.

==================================

My Note: See the nice little wedge we are forming in the above chart, a little patience and then bang! $1250 here we come! – jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr
 

 

 

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Why did Gold Drop After $1000 & Why It’s Going Back!

06 Friday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Brad Zigler, bull market, capitalism, CDE, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, depression, DGP, DGZ, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GLD, gold, Gold Bubble, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Greg McCoach, hard assets, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, NAK, palladium, Peter Brimelow, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, recession, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S. Dollar, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Sorry for no post yesterday, was traveling. Just why did Gold Drop basically $100 oz after hitting the $1000 price level? Was it Mr. BooYah Jim Cramer giving his recommendation? That helped, but what was the real reason? Today’s articles give you the answer along with the reason Gold is heading right back. Gold closed over it’s 20 day moving average so 1st resistance gone, next big resistance around $980, then we are back to testing the all time high. I took this pullback as an opportunity to accumulate some more Mid-tier producers, two of my fav’s actually, (NAK) and (CDE). I chose (CDE) because everyone seems to have forgotten Silver and I personally think on a percentage basis will in the end bring greater returns than Gold. The other “forgotten metal is Platinum and (SWC) has been beat up so badly I couldn’t resist accumulating a little more. I will put out a special weekend edition so be on the lookout for that. You will be the first to know if you are following me on Twitter. Have a Great Weekend!- Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

Here is where I buy my Bullion, get one free gram of Gold just for opening an account! Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account– just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

 

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Here is the answer to the question why Gold dropped $100 oz. I highlighted the section which explains why? As I mentioned in my post where I challenged Brad Zigler, my fear/concern came to fruition.

The Silly People- Le Metropole Cafe – GoldSeek.com

Source: GoldSeek.com

 

 

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By: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafe, Inc., LemetropoleCafe.com

As veteran Café members know, it is my opinion the financial market press, who follow and comment on gold, rate at best mental midget status, as exhibited by this gold recap headline yesterday afternoon…

Gold Falls Most in Seven Weeks as Equities Rally; Silver Drops – Bloomberg, Mar 3 2009 3:18PM

***

HUH? The DOW closed at its lowest level since 1997.

A few of The Muppets on CNBC have been pointed to the copper and oil charts as potential indicators that the economy might be about to show some life and that the market may be ready for a rally … from extremely oversold conditions. In particular, they are referring to their rounding bottom formations, which were followed today by breakouts, especially copper…

April crude oil, $45.78 per barrel, up $3.73
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/49May copper, $1.6940, up 8.95 cents.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/QC/59So, gold is supposedly liquidated for “margin call” reasons, in a deteriorating economic scene all over the world, yet oil and copper are not. Makes a lot of sense.

Then, this morning the DOW, S&P and the DOG were all called a fair amount higher on this news…

Stocks Rise Around the World; Commodities Gain, Treasuries Fall

 

March 4 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose around the world, commodity prices rallied and Treasuries fell on speculation China will broaden efforts to boost growth in the world’s third-largest economy. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped the most in four months.

BHP Billiton Ltd. and Alcoa Inc. added more than 2 percent as copper and aluminum climbed on optimism metals consumption in China will increase. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. surged 9 percent as a former statistics chief said China’s Premier Wen Jiabao will announce a new stimulus package tomorrow. Volkswagen AG, the biggest overseas carmaker in China, gained 3.9 percent.

The MSCI World Index added 0.3 percent to 707.74 at 1:23 p.m. in London. The deepening global recession, a third government rescue for Citigroup Inc. and dividend cuts at companies from General Electric Co. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. have sent the of 23 developed countries to a 23 percent drop this year, the worst start since the gauge was created in 1970.

“The Chinese are about to come up with another huge fiscal push,” said Philip Manduca, who oversees $1 billion as head of investments at ECU Group in London. “They are going to pump an enormous amount of money in. This will help in the long term,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview….

-END-

Perhaps coming Chinese economic stimulation is MORE than necessary as the true state of Chinese and Asian economic activity is not properly understood. The latest from my friend since 1980, Frank Veneroso…

Global Economy
Asian Black Hole Again
The Economic Collapse In Asia Points To A Deep Contraction In China

March 3, 2009

Executive Summary
    1. The industrial collapse on a global scale has almost no precedent. Why has it happened?2. The history of economic cycles tells us that industrial collapses like this one tend to be associated with two industrial excesses: massively excessive accumulations of inventories and manias in fixed investments.

     

    3. We have just gone through the biggest inflation adjusted commodity bubble in recorded world history both in terms of amplitude and duration. History tells us there was probably global goods hoarding; in other words, there may have been an inventory cycle of immense amplitude, much of it unrecorded, which is now being unwound violently. 

     

    4. If excessive inventory building and excessive fixed investment has been partly responsible for the amazing speed of decline in global industrial production, where in the world were these excesses concentrated? 

     

    5. China has embarked on a massive increase in its distribution chain. There was an associated massive inventory build in stores that remain void of shoppers. There may also have been a speculative accumulation of inventories. 

     

    6. China is also the economy where the world’s greatest fixed investment excess occurred. The ratio of fixed investment to GDP has been well above 40% for a half decade. No such investment excess ever occurred in any major economy since the onset of the industrial revolution. 

     

    7. We are now hearing stories about immense overcapacity in construction of all kinds. 

     

    8. Exports to China from China’s trading partners is all important, since it gives us some insight into the Chinese economy which the Chinese garbage statistics prevent us from seeing clearly. 

     

    9. Year over year exports for Japan have now fallen an amazing 46% in January. Exports to China fell at the same rate as overall exports, suggesting a contracting Chinese economy. 

     

    10. Japanese exports of capital goods to China have collapsed. German and Korean exports of capital goods to China have done the same. All this points to a sharp contraction in unsustainably high Chinese private fixed investment. 

     

    11. Taiwanese GDP fell an 8.36% rate in the fourth quarter non-annualized. I have never heard of an industrial contraction at such a devastating rate. 

     

    12. Exports were a cause. Taiwan’s exports fell at a 42.7% rate year over year in January. Exports to mainland China and Hong Kong fell at an even faster rate. 

     

    13. The odds are that Taiwanese firms operating in China have drastically curtailed their fixed investment on the mainland – another indication of a bust in unsustainable private business fixed investment in China. 

     

***Neither commentary is mutually exclusive. If the Chinese go all out here because they are in such a mess, they will need a lot of oil and copper, etc. Better their people have shovels than guns.

This is a roundabout way to get into covering my field, gold and silver. Gold was bombed for 7 days in a row … from top to bottom $100+. Two weeks ago the world was falling apart and it was THE safe haven play. By yesterday the price drop had many of its advocates stumbling and the press was quickly ready to pan it as a GO TO investment.

This really is silly people stuff. Twenty to Thirty years from today people won’t believe the garbage reasons offered for gold doing what it does … emanating from the press and The Muppets. In a bigger picture sense it is equivalent to those who thought the world was flat some 500 years ago.

Gold is more a safe haven play than ever and the price is going to the moon, along with silver. The only reason we have seen and endured a stunning 10% drop in the price of gold in 7 days is because the US Government/Gold Cartel ordered the price down. Once they set the fall in motion, it led to normal technical selling by funds, as most follow money management/stop loss principles. The Gold Cartel has been feeding on these folks and the likes of momentum trader Dennis Gartman for the 10½ years The Café has been open.

Gold is now in its 9th year of making new highs; and still, many pundits and Muppets are questioning it as an investment because it has no yield. Another huh? Yep, and it has no counterparty risk either, nor has it lost 50% of its value like the DOW over the past 12 years.

There are so many dingbats out there who relate back to the 1980 gold high and say it has gone nowhere, or little to nowhere, which is more silly people stuff. Tell that to those who bought the DOW over the past 12 years, who are at best even, with most EVERYONE losing money, while gold has soared.

Silly, silly, silly.

On that note, veteran Café members will remember Neal Ryan (had not heard from him in 6 months or more) who spearheaded the Blanchard & Co. lawsuit against Barrick and JP Morgan. He just checked in with CP and me this morning. Forget the mental midget, Muppet gold commentary. This is the real deal and the main reason for gold’s $100+ price drop…

Gents,
hope all is well on your end. I must profess that I haven’t kept track of things in the metals markets much recently, but did some quick work for a friend who was looking to invest and asked about bank selling. Just an FYI since I was trying to explain to him why when central bank activity ramps up it’s the time to buy….Euro CB’s have dumped over 220 tonnes of gold on the market in the last 3 weeks…ie. they’ve met nearly half their yearly selling quota in 3 weeks. Hadn’t seen anybody mentioned anything like that in any news lately, though hadn’t been looking either. It’s always the interesting stuff that no one in the mainstream media seems to notice.

keep up the good fight!
Neal

Neal, who is so well connected and really knows his stuff, what? … the press getting to the gold truth? Explaining it to the bewildered public?

Oh well what fun!!! From MIDAS yesterday (referring to JB’s ECB selling numbers)…

“But the key point of the note is that this 38 tonnes of selling is dwarfed over a two month period by the 249 tonnes GLD has supposedly bought over the same period of time (see Adrian below). Hmmm.”

Which if Neal’s info is correct, means The Gold Cartel dumped 211 tonnes SURREPTITIOUSLY as part of their gold price suppression scheme and was THE real reason gold fell like it did. It all fits.

Oh, so many of the mainstream gold world folks is a bunch of shallow nincompoops!

CNBC’s Jim Cramer was jumping up and down about silver last night. It was quite a lengthy segment on silver. However, as bullish as he was, he said that gold and silver were going DOWN first, so buyers should scale in at intervals on the downside. Silver popped early to $13.17 but gradually fell apart, while gold was smothered for no apparent reason again, except for The Gold Cartel’s reasons. Gold roared early up to $922.30, then was nailed by the bums to $905 before stabilizing. We have witnessed this pattern (the cabal slams gold after an early burst) over and during the past (now) 8 days of successive losses. Perhaps we have a double bottom above $900. With so many buyers lurking out there between $880 and $900, that would not be a surprise. Then again, there is a horrendous US jobs report coming on Friday and gold is always nailed around that report. Perhaps that was part of what this takedown was all about and the major damage has been done already.

Silver was aided in the morning by the VERY firm copper and oil prices. The hoopla over the Chinese stimulus comments didn’t hurt either.

The gold open interest only fell 2,071 contracts to 365,271 (not much liquidation there), while the silver OI went up a slight 15 contracts to 93,051.

The yield on the 10 yr T note is 3%. The dollar fell .73 to 88.57. The dollar/gold relationship has taken on an entirely new dimension for the time being.The CRB came back from the dead, gaining 7.78 to 211.45.

 

AM gold goodies from John Brimelow…

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM (S15.63) PM ($8.79) with world gold at $913.58 and $911.80. Basis Delhi – well below legal import point. After a soft start, the rupee managed a rally at last, closing at $1 = R51.35 (Tuesday R51.95). This had a notable effect on the PM premium situation. The stock market also managed an up day. Closing 0.23% above Tuesday.

A rally in the rupee could have an important influence on world gold at this point.

In a somewhat confusing development, The Gartman Letter today speaks of cutting another unit of gold from its model portfolio, by my reckoning eliminating its position. But the portfolio summary reflects neither today’s nor yesterday’s action.

Nevertheless, the attitude towards gold now held by this well-informed and influential commentary is clearly unenthusiastic.

Of interest is that MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for the S&P, which is normally very sticky, slipped a point last night to 32%.. In the past couple of years it has been lower only 3 days, October 8-10 last year, when it bottomed at 29% (and then saw a 10 point rally. On some reckonings (Hays), that remains the “internal low” of the market.

Since very recently selling in gold appears to have been linked to stock market weakness, this could be important to gold’s friends.

***

MIDAS note: there will be JB evening input (more gold goodies) between 5 and 7 Eastern Standard Time unless otherwise notified. 

And here it is…Tuesday’s deep $34 intraday Comex sell-off and down $26.40 loss (2.8%) saw only a minor fall in open interest. Only 2,071 lots were shed (0.6%). In the first instance this implies there continues to be a substantial short interest in the market, and that the widely reported long-liquidation is exaggerated, at least as far as Comex is concerned.

Today a promising early Comex rally was reversed on heavy volume – by 10am 62% of the day’s estimated volume had traded and gold was $10 off its high. Gold then drifted down to a floor close loss of $6.90. Only 99,266 lots were estimated to have traded – switch effect 8,734.

A great deal of attention is now being paid to the slack Asian demand/scrap reflux situation with wider discounts on kilo bar being reported, especially in the Far East (50c HK, 75c Tokyo). See

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-38330720090304?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

On the other hand, a survey of US coin and bullion dealer sites this afternoon suggests that US premiums have widened slightly, and remain very high.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold slipped a point to 74%.

The GLD ETF achieved a fifth day running with reported gold holdings static at 1,029.29 tonnes.

While this is the 8th down day in a row for Comex gold, the bears cannot be said to have really pressed their advantage, with volume fading away once the early rally attempt was blocked. Neither the HUI (down 0.94%) nor the XAU (up 0 02%) lost their curious gains of yesterday. Some will see the apparent exit of The Gartman Letter as a positive sign.

The market remains interesting.

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Now we know Gold has come roaring back but I couldn’t agree more “Very Interesting”!-Jschulmansr

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Gold: Entering an Accelerated Trend Channel – Seeking Alpha

By: Olivier Tischendorf

 

Gold has history on its side. It is a proven way to preserve one’s wealth over time. It acts like an insurance and it is highly unlikely mankind’s behavior during the last 6,000 years is going to change anytime soon. Some things never change. Two of those things are human nature and gold’s capacity to preserve one’s purchasing power.

That said gold has recently reached new highs in various foreign currencies. The chart of gold in Euro terms tells the story of what is to come. Don’t take this lightly. This is an important event as new highs typically attract more buying. If the Europeans start allocating more funds to physical bullion demand will increase drastically and gobble up supply. It is reasonable to expect additional upward pressure for the price of gold. Physical accumulation is accelerating on a worldwide basis. Keep in mind gold is a very tiny market compared to the equities market. A change in asset allocation resulting in a small increase to bullion exposure could easily double worldwide demand for gold bullion investment purposes.

A story hitting the wires recently is that: Greenlight Capital’s founder, David Einhorn, is finally taking his grandfather’s advice. The $5.1 billion hedge fund is buying gold for the first time amid the threat of inflation from increased government spending. Einhorn fund’s recent decision to invest in physical gold bullion is testament to increased awareness of gold’s bullish long term trend and it looks like this is only the beginning to added buying pressure for gold bullion.’ For full coverage of the story click here.

It looks like the price of gold in US Dollar terms is merely lagging other currencies as the US Dollar has been very strong lately. It is still early to draw conclusions as the US Dollar could stay stronger than most people expect but the new accelerating trend channel looks to be a valid one.

So what it all comes down to is that worldwide accumulation of physical gold is accelerating. Hence the odds the gold price is going to accelerate as well are rather high.

If you haven’t built a physical bullion position yet now is a good time to think about doing so. I typically recommend holding at least 5% of one’s liquid net worth in gold bullion held in your own possession. Increasing that percentage up to 20% isn’t that bad an idea either. Although the markets look like they might want to stage some kind of rally right now taking a longer term perspective indicates the gold trend is going to make you more money than buying the S&P500 via the SPY.

Gold should reach new highs in US Dollar terms soon following the lead of foreign currencies like the Euro, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc and the British Pound Sterling to name a few. As long as the lower trend line of the new dotted trend channel is not breached ‘the trend is your friend’ and you should hold on to your gold bullion position. You could use that level to protect your position with a stop loss.

If you want to be more aggressive you should consider buying silver bullion. The silver market is much smaller than the gold market so the market is considered to be a riskier one. But once the public is going to stress silver’s monetary significance as opposed to viewing it simply as another commodity silver prices will increase significantly and should ultimately outperform gold. I recommend closely watching the gold – silver ratio for clues. Historically the ratio has showed to be lower than the actual one. Watch for the ratio to go back to the 55 level and overshooting to the downside as soon as silver garners more interest.

You can easily keep track of the three charts and how they evolve over time by visiting my public list.

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My Note: Remember even with the $100 oz drop Gold came nowhere close to breaking out of even it’s upward accelerated channel! Patience my friends!

! Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account– just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

===============================

Greg McCoach: Gold $2000/oz by Year’s End? – The Gold Report 

Source: The Gold Report

Successful entrepreneur turned bullion dealer Greg McCoach brings more than 20 years of business experience, a vast network of mining contacts and his unique precious metals industry insights to the mining investment newsletter he launched in 2001, The Mining Speculator. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Greg outlines the ‘new’ criteria for junior miners, explains why he favors the juniors over more senior producers and advises a combination of both physical metal and stocks for investors to protect themselves in today’s market.

The Gold Report (TGR): In your January newsletter, there’s a table that shows how the HUI Gold BUGS Index over 10 years was the top asset class. Can you talk about gold as the top asset class compared to these others?

Greg McCoach (GM): We see by the statistics that the HUI Index, which is a measure of gold and silver precious metal stocks, has performed better than any other asset class in the past 10 years. Now what’s interesting is that we’re still in the process of watching this gold bull unfold. In terms of the four stages of a bull market, we are probably past the midway point and heading into the latter stages. This is where the parabolic moves in the precious metals will start to happen. And with all that is unfolding in the world economic scene, it’s not difficult to see why gold will soon be soaring.

TGR: So you definitely think this bodes well for the next phase of the gold bull market; there will be a parabolic move?

GM: Yes. This is where you’re going to see gold really go to levels that people can’t even comprehend. Up to this point, gold has been a surprise to many in the mainstream media. What investors need to understand about the bull market in gold thus far is that the numbers that we’re dealing with, $960 an ounce gold right now, is nowhere near the 1980 high in gold of $875 an ounce.

You have to inflation-adjust those 1980 numbers for 28 years of true inflation. If you did that, the $875 high in gold would have to be $6,500 an ounce in inflation-adjusted terms. For silver, it’d be $400 dollars an ounce. So when you see silver at its current rate of $14 an ounce and gold at $960 an ounce, in real inflation-adjusted terms, those prices are still dirt cheap, relatively speaking, compared to where they’re going to be going.

As we see the world financial system continue to unravel, the dollar along with all fiat currencies will just implode leaving gold as the currency of last resort. Gold, and silver will go into the stratosphere as this happens. People need to remember that what took gold and silver to their all-time highs in 1980 pales in comparison to what we are dealing with now. The world has never witnessed the likes of the financial destruction that is now underway. It is truly frightening.

 

TGR: You say in your “Greg’s Crystal Ball” section that you think the mania phase is going to start happening sometime next year, in 2010.

GM: I think by the end of this year things are going to be so bad worldwide that gold is going to become headline news and that will become the driving force towards the parabolic moves. What’s happening right now is that the big money is still playing the paper game of musical chairs. “Paper musical chairs,” I call it. When the music stops, people run from one chair to the other chair looking for safety. They run from bonds to dollars to Euros, etc., trying to find the safest place. But they’re not finding it. Why? Because the paper system as we’ve known it is unraveling. So people are trying to chase safety. Well, they can’t find it because it doesn’t exist. They go into dollars, and they feel comfortable there for a little while; then suddenly the dollar tanks again, and then they run out of the dollar to another paper currency.

Ultimately, when the music stops, they’re not going to run to a chair; they’re going to run for the exits. When that happens, they’re going to discover the asset class known as gold. That’s when these parabolic moves are going to happen. As that happens of course, the select precious metal mining stocks will move up accordingly. The leverage investors can get will be phenomenal during such a scenario.

TGR: You say the key is to own the physical metal, as well as the stocks. What do you recommend as far as percentages in a portfolio?

GM: Right now my personal portfolio is 25% cash, 25% physical metals. I take physical delivery of gold and silver. I have 35% in select precious mining stocks, junior mining stocks mostly, and then the balance is in Canadian oil and gas trusts that pay a monthly dividend check.

TGR: You favor the juniors over the more senior producers simply because of the growth potential?

GM: Yes. The leverage is better. For me, personally, I’m willing to take the extra risk with the juniors because I feel like I know what I’m doing and I’m confident about it, so I feel comfortable in being able to identify the juniors that are going to perform very well. The seniors will do well, but they won’t do as well on a percentage basis. In other words, there’s not as much leverage with the seniors as there is with the quality juniors. But the big problem for the average investor is trying to understand what a quality junior is. There’s so many of these companies out there, 80% of which are nothing but moose pasture, and it’s very difficult to sort through all the promotions and scams to find the real jewels. That’s my job as a newsletter writer; that’s what I do. I travel the world trying to sort through all the garbage to find the real opportunities that can deliver the big returns.

TGR: What do you see right now with the juniors? Some of them definitely are climbing back up.

GM: I think it’s nice to see them recover a little bit. This is a very good learning situation for investors of mining stocks. Look at the companies that are rebounding. If we have another implosion, which companies do you want to buy? The ones that rebounded the quickest and the most in the past several weeks, months.

Since the bottom in late November, early December, we’ve had companies that have doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled if you had enough courage, or any cash, to buy back then. But there are other companies that haven’t moved at all, and they’re just stuck in the mud. So, obviously, you have been given a great opportunity to see the companies that are more quality oriented, that have the value, that have what the market is looking for, and those companies are the ones you want to really pay attention to.

Since a lot of the stocks on our list bottomed out, the top 10 list, in particular, has had some of the stocks do quite well. Some of them have doubled, tripled, and have bounced back quite nicely from the bottom. Unfortunately, most of us probably bought at a higher level and so we’re not even up to the point where we’re at break-even again. Obviously, we’re still waiting for higher levels.

Now what I’ve been saying is that, unfortunately, with the severity of the world economic events, up to this point our mining shares have been sucked down the drain, so to speak, when world stock markets sell off. Every day that the world stock markets have had a bad day, the mining stocks have had a bad day as well. What we’re looking for is the precious metal prices to help us disconnect from that activity. It hasn’t happened yet. I’m still worried that the next downturn in the world markets could affect our junior mining stocks again. I’ve been looking for this key disconnect moment, where the precious metal prices take us into another realm and help protect and insulate our select junior mining stocks. You have to use ‘select’ because so many of the juniors are going nowhere. It’s only the select companies that are going to be protected or insulated from other market activity that’s going in the wrong direction. So I’m looking for that moment our quality junior stocks start to move on their own accord.

TGR: Can you give us an overview of what you consider a select company? What is the criteria?

GM: The criteria is this. They have to exceptional management. In other words, out of all the management teams that exist out there, there’s probably only a small handful that really have the quality background and experience to do what they say they’re going to do. Most of these other people are just managers or lawyers who don’t have experience or are hoping to get involved with a hot sector. They’re highly promotional, and most often are only looking out for themselves.

So you look for the people that have the right resumes, the ones who have worked for the majors for 10, 15, 20 years or more and have the experience (paid their dues so to speak), learned the business, understand what they’re doing and what they are trying to accomplish. Do they have experience in doing this specific task such as find gold? Did they mine gold or silver before? If they were mining for uranium their whole career and they jump into gold, well, that doesn’t sound too good to me.

So you have to have the experience and the knowledge base. That’s key. The way we’ve been playing this market the last eight years is no longer as valid as it once was. We need to adjust to the new rules on how to play this game and win.

What the market is looking for is very specific. If you make a good gold discovery, it has to be in an existing mining camp. It has to be in an area where the development costs aren’t very large. If you make a big gold discovery, and it’s in an area that’s out in the middle of nowhere, the development costs are going to be too high. No one’s going to fund it; no one’s going to finance a project like this with the new market environment. It doesn’t matter how good the results are.

So you have to find these discoveries in good jurisdictions that have short permitting times that have existing infrastructure. If it doesn’t have those things, forget about it. There are plenty of great discoveries that I know of. They’re just in the wrong area. Some examples would be Romios Gold Resources Inc. (TSX.V:RG), Copper Fox Metals Inc. (TSX:CUU), who have tremendous discoveries but are unfortunately in the wrong area. It takes too much money to develop such a desolate area as we have seen with NovaGold Resources Inc. (TSX:NG) (AMEX:NG) in their effort to get the Galore Creek deposit in production. The cost overruns were so enormous, they had to shut the whole thing down. Well, the market’s not interested in those kind of projects anymore. I choose to invest in areas that have what the market wants.

Look in the areas that have plenty of existing mines and infrastructure. This is where plenty of experienced mining people already live and juniors who can make a discovery will most likely be bought out by a major who is in the area.

Now certain jurisdictions are better than others. The political risk now is more intense than it was. Political risk is always a big factor, but the political risk now is just amazing, so you have to be very careful where you’re willing to invest your money. For me, I’m getting to the point where there are only a few jurisdictions that I’m willing to look at. Certain parts of Canada where there’s existing mining camps, certain parts in the United States, and Mexico which still looks very good. That’s about it. Everything else is no longer as attractive as it once used to be.

We’re also looking for higher-grade resources vs. lower grade. We’re looking for low-cost development situations vs. high-cost development situations. We’re looking for economic deposits that can be financed.

Here’s another situation—within mining, the different kinds of discoveries. A large copper-gold porphyry system is known to house large amounts of gold and silver,; but, unfortunately, it’s also known to have very high development costs. Who’s going to finance that? I’m not as interested in those kinds of stories as I once was. You’re better off looking for the higher grade— “epithermal”—smaller vein, higher grade, near-surface deposits that will have an easier time of actually going the whole distance and getting into production.

TGR: Let’s talk about some of the companies on your top 10 list. Pediment Exploration Ltd. (PEZ:TSX) (PEZGF:OTCBB) (P5E:FSE) is at the top; can you give us an update?

GM: Since they bottomed, Pediment has more than doubled. They’re hanging around the dollar trading range, which some people have been disappointed with. But what I say is, look, Gary Freeman, the CEO, is just weighing his options right now. He’s not making much in the way of news. That’s okay. He’s lying low, he’s looking at his options right now, and this is a company that is about to release a new 43-101 that will have more than 2 million ounces of gold in the ground. This is a verified situation. That’s a significant number because once a company, a junior, crosses the 2 million ounce gold mark, it gets on the radar screens of the majors.

Gary has a lot of things he’s weighing out. After the market meltdown, he decided to reduce costs, get things trimmed down, and get the burn rate really low to conserve cash. So, in the last few months there has not been much in the way of news. The company is lying low for now, but I think you’re going to see that change as PEZ announces their new 43-101 resource calculation. At that point I think you’re going to see Pediment start to have a lot of news flow, which should be very good for the share price.

He’s got the Baja property we just talked about that’s going to have the new 43-101. I don’t see how it’s not at least 2 million ounces based on my back-of-the-envelope calculations, but you never know with these things until they actually come out. I would guess it’s going to be over 2 million and there’s plenty more to be discovered there In my opinion, this deposit could be greater than 3 million ounces before all is said and done. Well, that’s a major discovery. It’s in the right jurisdiction, with very low development costs and it’s in an existing mining area, so it should do very well.

Now, Pediment also has a project called La Colorada that could be a near-term producer. It’s the old open pit that El Dorado Gold Corporation (ELD.TO) (AMEX:EGO) produced from, which really made El Dorado Gold what they are today—what launched them—that discovery and putting it into production. Pediment now controls it and other people are interested in it. Should Gary vend it out to somebody else, take the cash and run, or should he develop it himself? He has lots of options. He has lots of cash. He has lots of great properties. Gary has many different things he can consider at this point, so I think he wisely just stepped back, started to look through everything that he has and what options are available. We’ll see what happens but the prospects for the company look very good..

I’m sure there’s been interest by majors already on the Baja Project. He’s probably gotten plenty of calls, where the majors are already saying, “hey, look, what if we just take you out at this price?” Is it high enough? Is it worth taking the money now and running, letting somebody else deal with it? Or is it better for the company to go down the road a little bit further, develop it themselves in the hopes of getting a much higher price later on? These are things we all have to weigh out. Is it better for us as shareholders to take the money and run right now, even though we might get a lower price for it? Or should we wait a little bit longer, and get a higher price when they develop it? These are things we have to look at. So, with that being said, in my opinion, as we see these higher gold prices and with the news that’s about to come out, I think Pediment’s a two dollar stock in the next six to eight weeks.

TGR: Capital Gold Corp. (TSX:CGC) is also on your list, correct?

GM: Yes, and as Capital Gold runs up to the 90 cent level—it was recently in the 80 cent range—as it gets close to 90 cents Canadian, I’m telling people to start selling, start taking some profit. What’s going to happen is the company is going to do a reverse stock split, which is going to be a minimum 4:1 stock split. These stock splits are always negative for current shareholders. Let’s just say they decide to do the reverse split at a dollar. They’ll reduce their outstanding shares by 75% and the stock would be at four dollars at that point, which would get them their AMEX listing (which is a good thing), and that’s why they want to do it. But, typically, what happens, after they do a reverse split, the stock gets hammered. The four dollar share price gets leveled and it usually retracts to a level that is very damaging to current shareholders. So this is why I’m saying take some profit as Capital Gold gets over 90 cents, hold the cash.

I think Capital Gold is worth holding in the portfolio, but wait ‘til after the reverse split and the detrimental effects that reverse splits typically have on share prices. Wait for the share price to retract, and then buy in again because I think Capital Gold will be a good company to hold. I just think you should take some profits at this point.

TGR: What about SilverCrest Mines Inc. (TSX.V:SVL)?

GM: Silvercrest is a great story. Their production scenario at Santa Elena in Mexico is a high-grade silver-gold kind of scenario. They just came out with their resource update. The resource is growing and the project should be in production by the end of 2009. Things are looking very good so I’m going to keep the company in my portfolio. This resource should grow with time. It’s got all the things that the market’s looking for—precious metals-oriented in Mexico, near-term production and the company should have cash flow.

TGR: Riverside Resources Inc. (TSX:RRI) just joined your top 10 list, right?

GM: Yes, they made their entry into the top 10 because they have shown me that they know how to manage the prospect generator model with success. The CEO, whom I like very much, really watches and guards the treasury and watches out for shareholders. He’s managing his properties very well, and I think he’s got not just one but possibly multiple discoveries. And this is what you want with a junior exploration stock. Some people say, “Greg, don’t you want to have people who have a production cash flow?” Yes. We’re going to have some of those in the portfolio, but the exploration companies—the good ones that can make the discoveries—is where you get the biggest leverage of all. And I think Riverside is in that category. So they are now number nine on our top 10. I like them very much and I think it’s a good play.

TGR: Can you talk about another from your top 10 list— Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (TSX:ANV) (ANV)?

GM: Allied Nevada is a good story because they’re getting the Hycroft mine back into production. It’s going very, very well. The stock price has rebounded very nicely, and I think it’s probably poised to make a new high. Now we saw some selling pressure, some people were taking profits in January and early February as the stock was recovering; but now I think that selling pressure is gone and the stock is back up over the $6 level again. With higher gold and silver prices, I think you’re going to see Allied make a new all-time high and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock at $7 or $8. So there could be a profit opportunity on that one coming up here.

TGR: Now Vista Gold Corp. (TSX:VGZ) (AMEX:VGZ) is not on your top 10 list, but you cover them, correct?

GM: Yes, I like Vista Gold. Allied Nevada and Vista used to be one company before they did the split. The better properties I thought went with Allied Nevada, but Vista Gold still has plenty of good situations. Their model of acquiring cheap gold ounces in the ground, increasing the value of them in a market where gold prices are going higher, is a very valid market. They have a good share structure, they have cash in the bank, and they’re a very well-managed company with top management talent. So, with higher gold prices, that model should do very, very well.

They’ve got multiple projects with big gold deposits in Australia at the Mt. Todd deposit, which is a 6 million ounce gold resource. They’ve got the Awak Mas property in Indonesia that is a very large holding of gold. And higher gold prices make these kinds of projects worth more and more. They’ve also got some great projects in Mexico next to Pediment’s project on the Baja. They have the Paredones Amarillos Project, which is kind of waiting on a permit situation that they thought was already done years ago that seems to have had a little glitch there, but that’ll get worked out. And they’ve got some other good projects in Idaho and one other one (I can’t think of it off the top of my head), but it’s a good scenario and that model should work well. If you believe in higher gold prices, Vista Gold should do very well.

TGR: Greg, this has been great. We appreciate your time.

Greg McCoach is an entrepreneur who has successfully started and run several businesses the past 22 years. For the last eight of these years he has been involved with the precious metals industry as a bullion dealer, investor, and newsletter writer (Mining Speculator). Greg is also the President of AmeriGold, a gold bullion dealer.

Greg’s years of business experience and extensive personal contacts in the mining industry provide unique insights that have generated an impressive track record for The Mining Speculator since its inception in 2001. He also writes a weekly column for Gold World.

Want to read more exclusive Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Expert Insights page.

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! Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account– just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

     

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BooYah! What Happened? – Cramer Strikes Again!

04 Wednesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in Comex, commodities, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, DGP, DGZ, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, follow the news, Forex, Free Speech, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, Investing, investments, Jim Sinclair, Latest News, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, prices, producers, production, silver, silver miners, spot, spot price, Technical Analysis, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3

≈ Comments Off on BooYah! What Happened? – Cramer Strikes Again!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

I had mentioned in a previous posts (here and here), that I am somewhat of a contrarian and get nervous when everyone is shouting Buy! from the rooftops. BooYah! it happened, Jim Cramer touted Gold as a buy and BANG! Gold dropped faster than a lead balloon. Go figure… As for my outlook on Gold it is still long term bullish. You should be taking this breather to accumulate more of the Gold producers, especially Mid-Tier and the Juniors. They are still selling at very attractive levels. Gold I feel is building a nice base here at the $900 level. If $880 level is broken then we’ll go directly to $850 potentially as low as $800. However that said, I think realistically we are going to see some more base building at this level and then launch for a test of the $1033 all time high within the next month to month and a half on normal market action. However since normal is not normal any more,  adjust your positions and get ready for the next launch, the countdown has begun…-Good Investing! jschulmansr

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

 

Here is where I buy my Bullion, get one free gram of Gold just for opening an account! Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account– just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

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Here’s a very Interesting Piece from Jim Sinclair…

 Gold’s Role During Periods Of Monetary Stress

By: Jim Sinclair of JSMineSet.com

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

  • Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
  • Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
  • Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
  • Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
  • Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

I did not wish to yell “fire in the theatre.”

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.

Jim

See the following two links as support:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FDHBFIN.txt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves

In the past, I believe you have said that the price of gold could reach a level whereby in dollar terms this equation will hold:

Oz’s of Gold Held by US x $ Price of Gold = External Debt

From the above links we find:

Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors = $3,125,000,000,000 (as of 12/31/08)

Official US Gold holdings = 8,133.5 tonnes (or 260,272,000 oz’s)

Putting the #’s into the equation:

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000  = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold

My question is – what is the mechanism or thought process that makes the equation true?

(I guess that I am looking for the why?)

Thank you for your time.
CIGA Rich Gold

 

My Note- $3500 oz. I could definitely handle that!- jschulmansr

Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account– just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

===================================

Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold Seeker

Source: Gold Seeker.com

 

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed While Stocks Rebound
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com


— Posted Wednesday, 4 March 2009 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

 

Close

Gain/Loss

Gold

$906.85

-$7.20

Silver

$12.85

+$0.14

XAU

113.48

+0.02%

HUI

272.12

-0.94%

GDM

863.35

-0.80%

JSE Gold

2677.92

+107.77

USD

88.56

-0.38

Euro

126.36

+0.72

Yen

100.90

-0.87

Oil

$45.38

+$3.73

10-Year

3.011%

+0.073

T-Bond

125.0625

-0.703125

Dow

6875.84

+2.23%

Nasdaq

1353.74

+2.48%

S&P

712.87

+2.38%

 
Buy Gold Online
 

 

 

 

 

 

The Metals:

Gold fell $8.25 to $905.80 in early London trade before it rose as much as $8.70 to $922.75 in early New York trade, but it then fell back off into the close and ended near its new session low of $904.80 with a loss of 0.79%.  Silver dropped $0.05 to $12.66 in Asia before it rose to see a gain of 2.7% or $0.34 at $13.15 at about 9AM EST in New York, but it also fell back off into the close and ended with a gain of just 1.1%.

 

Euro gold fell to about €719, platinum gained $15 to $1041, and copper gained roughly 9 cents more to about $1.69.

 

Gold and silver equities rose roughly 3% at the open before they fell back off to see about 2% losses by a little after 2PM EST, but they then rallied back higher in the last two hours of trade and ended mixed and near unchanged.

 The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

ADP Employment

Feb

-697K

-630K

-522K

ISM Services

Feb

41.6

41.0

42.9

 

“The Obama administration kicked off a new program Wednesday that’s designed to help up to 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments.”

 

The fed’s Beige Book showed that the fed is not expecting an upturn in the economy until late 2009 or early 2010.

 

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings fourth quarter Productivity expected at 1.1%, Unit Labor Costs expected at 3.8%, and Initial Jobless Claims for 2/28 expected at 650,000.  At 10AM is the Factory Orders report for January expected at -3.5%.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil prices rose 9% as inventories fell and hopes for increasing demand from China increased after rumors surfaced about a second stimulus package from them soon.  Oil inventories fell 700,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose 200,000 barrels, distillates rose 1,700,000 barrels, and refinery utilization rose 1.7% to 83.1%.

 

The U.S. dollar index fell as the euro rose ahead of tomorrow’s ECB and BOE meetings that are expected to see cuts of 50 basis points each.  All eyes and ears will be on Trichet’s speech following the expected cuts as it may indicate a possible change in policy heading forward.

 

Treasuries fell as the Dow and S&P rebounded from yesterday’s 12-year closing lows “on word of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package and an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.”

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were GE, Costco, BJ’s, Toll Brothers, Liz Claiborne, Exxon, and SunTrust.

 

The Commentary:

 “Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

 Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

 $3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

 In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

 I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

 The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

 You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

 Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

 

I did not wish to yell “fire in the theatre.”

 It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.”– Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

 

“Dear CIGAs,

 

General long liquidation and some fresh short selling continues to occur in the paper gold market at the Comex as short term oriented traders express disappointment in the lack of a reported increase in holdings in the gold ETF, GLD. Gold is still probing for a low from which to base. See the chart for some comments on the various technical levels where that might be found.

 

Gold moved inversely to the equity markets today as stock prices moved higher in a bit of a relief rally after being down for 5 straight days in a row. Chatter was that China was on the verge of an economic recovery and what is therefore good for China is good for the entire global economy. The surge in copper prices today after yesterday’s strong move higher also fed into that theory. What those espousing the “copper theory” do not understand apparently is arbitrage. Copper prices in Shanghai and London were and are trading at two different price levels and arbitragers are taking advantage of that price discrepancy. That has copper flowing to China and drawing down supplies in London which is being interpreted as signs that China is going to recover first. My view is that once arbitrage corrects the price discrepancy and the Chinese are finished restocking at bargain prices, the drawdown in LME copper stocks will come to an abrupt halt. China is certainly planning on using some of that copper with its own economic stimulus plan but one has to wonder if that sort of thing is going to produce lasting economic gains seeing that part of the problems in China are excessive production and supply capacity. I guess we will find out…”– Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com

 

“April Gold closed down 6.9 at 906.7. This was 1.2 up from the low and 16.3 off the high.

 

March Silver finished up 0.205 at 12.9, equal to the high and equal to the low.

 

The gold market clearly was undermined by several developments that seemed to deflate the flight to quality angle in the marketplace. Clearly the Chinese stimulus news was a major catalyst behind an improvement in macro economic sentiment and that in conjunction with what appeared to be a key reversal in the Dollar seemed to turn up the long liquidation pressure on the gold market. It is also possible that additional US government offerings served to tamp down fears that the US wasn’t in control of its future, as the idea that things were about to get out of control was certainly part of the reason gold prices recently managed to rise above $1,000. While anxiety might not stay tamped down, the gold market on Wednesday certainly seemed to be fearful of that happening in the near term.

 

The silver market clearly diverged with the gold market and that seemed to be the result of silver tracking its physical commodity factors, while the gold market was seeing financially orientated long liquidation pressure. With the copper market adding almost 10 cents per pound today and up 20 cents from this week’s lows, it was clear that interest in industrial metals was serving to lift the fortunes of silver. Certainly the Chinese stimulus package was a large source of support for silver but in retrospect the strength in the equity market had to give some silver buyers an incentive.”– The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

GATA Posts:

 Liberty Dollar founder on Fox News today

TheStreet.com notes complaints of manipulation of silver

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 3/04/2009

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

8,655,661

-60,200

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

125,113,047

+993,769

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchage (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx)

SPDR® Gold Shares

1,029.29

33,092,632

US$ 30,228m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse )

Gold Bullion Securities

129.99

4,179,259

US$ 3,792m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

12.49

400,456

US$ 364m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

28.62

920,227

US$ 840m

NASDAQ Dubai

Dubai Gold Securities

0.16

5,000

US$ 5m

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 2.85 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$1,989,312,763

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

2,179,187.377

Shares Outstanding

22,150,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

67.78

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 0.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$3,253,553,515

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

256,600,428.100

Shares Outstanding

260,250,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

7,981.17

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 3.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

The Miners:

 

ITH’s (THM) closed financing, Northgate’s (NXG) fourth quarter earnings, Great Basin’s (GBG) priced offering, Agnico Eagle’s (AEM) exploration update, New Gold’s (NGD) and Western Goldfields’ (WGW) business combination, MAG’s (MVG) corrected estimation error in its resource estimate, and Ecuador’s plans to allow miners to restart operations were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1.  Northern Dynasty

NAK +16.30% $4.78

2.  Freeport

FCX +13.38% $32.21

3.  Anglo American

AAUK +10.82% $7.27

 

LOSERS

1.  New Gold

NGD-13.97% $1.54

2.  MAG

MVG -7.78% $4.15

3.  Harmony

HMY-3.33% $11.04

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today’s gold and silver stock news:

Quri Resources Launches a University Assistance Program – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Zoloto Resources announces closing of non-brokered private placement – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. Closes $10,500,000 Bought Deal Equity Financing – “International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (“ITH” or “the Company”) (CDNX:ITH.V – News)(AMEX:THM – News)(Frankfurt:IW9.F – News) is pleased to announce that, on March 4, 2009, it closed its previously announced private placement through a syndicate of underwriters (“Underwriters”) and sold an aggregate of 4,200,000 common shares of the Company (“Shares”) at a price of $2.50 per Share for gross proceeds of $10,500,000 on a bought deal basis in Canada and a concurrent private placement in the United States to accredited investors (the “Offering”).” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Consolidated Thompson Comments on Recent Stock Activity – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

ADP Employment

Feb

-697K

-630K

-522K

ISM Services

Feb

41.6

41.0

42.9

 

“The Obama administration kicked off a new program Wednesday that’s designed to help up to 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments.”

 

The fed’s Beige Book showed that the fed is not expecting an upturn in the economy until late 2009 or early 2010.

 

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings fourth quarter Productivity expected at 1.1%, Unit Labor Costs expected at 3.8%, and Initial Jobless Claims for 2/28 expected at 650,000.  At 10AM is the Factory Orders report for January expected at -3.5%.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil prices rose 9% as inventories fell and hopes for increasing demand from China increased after rumors surfaced about a second stimulus package from them soon.  Oil inventories fell 700,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose 200,000 barrels, distillates rose 1,700,000 barrels, and refinery utilization rose 1.7% to 83.1%.

 

The U.S. dollar index fell as the euro rose ahead of tomorrow’s ECB and BOE meetings that are expected to see cuts of 50 basis points each.  All eyes and ears will be on Trichet’s speech following the expected cuts as it may indicate a possible change in policy heading forward.

 

Treasuries fell as the Dow and S&P rebounded from yesterday’s 12-year closing lows “on word of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package and an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.”

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were GE, Costco, BJ’s, Toll Brothers, Liz Claiborne, Exxon, and SunTrust.

 

The Commentary:

 

“Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

 

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

 

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

 

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

 

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

 

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

 

I did not wish to yell “fire in the theatre.”

 It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.”– Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

 

“Dear CIGAs,

 

General long liquidation and some fresh short selling continues to occur in the paper gold market at the Comex as short term oriented traders express disappointment in the lack of a reported increase in holdings in the gold ETF, GLD. Gold is still probing for a low from which to base. See the chart for some comments on the various technical levels where that might be found.

 

Gold moved inversely to the equity markets today as stock prices moved higher in a bit of a relief rally after being down for 5 straight days in a row. Chatter was that China was on the verge of an economic recovery and what is therefore good for China is good for the entire global economy. The surge in copper prices today after yesterday’s strong move higher also fed into that theory. What those espousing the “copper theory” do not understand apparently is arbitrage. Copper prices in Shanghai and London were and are trading at two different price levels and arbitragers are taking advantage of that price discrepancy. That has copper flowing to China and drawing down supplies in London which is being interpreted as signs that China is going to recover first. My view is that once arbitrage corrects the price discrepancy and the Chinese are finished restocking at bargain prices, the drawdown in LME copper stocks will come to an abrupt halt. China is certainly planning on using some of that copper with its own economic stimulus plan but one has to wonder if that sort of thing is going to produce lasting economic gains seeing that part of the problems in China are excessive production and supply capacity. I guess we will find out…”– Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com

 

“April Gold closed down 6.9 at 906.7. This was 1.2 up from the low and 16.3 off the high.

 

March Silver finished up 0.205 at 12.9, equal to the high and equal to the low.

 

The gold market clearly was undermined by several developments that seemed to deflate the flight to quality angle in the marketplace. Clearly the Chinese stimulus news was a major catalyst behind an improvement in macro economic sentiment and that in conjunction with what appeared to be a key reversal in the Dollar seemed to turn up the long liquidation pressure on the gold market. It is also possible that additional US government offerings served to tamp down fears that the US wasn’t in control of its future, as the idea that things were about to get out of control was certainly part of the reason gold prices recently managed to rise above $1,000. While anxiety might not stay tamped down, the gold market on Wednesday certainly seemed to be fearful of that happening in the near term.

 

The silver market clearly diverged with the gold market and that seemed to be the result of silver tracking its physical commodity factors, while the gold market was seeing financially orientated long liquidation pressure. With the copper market adding almost 10 cents per pound today and up 20 cents from this week’s lows, it was clear that interest in industrial metals was serving to lift the fortunes of silver. Certainly the Chinese stimulus package was a large source of support for silver but in retrospect the strength in the equity market had to give some silver buyers an incentive.”– The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 GATA Posts:

 Liberty Dollar founder on Fox News today

TheStreet.com notes complaints of manipulation of silver

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 3/04/2009

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

8,655,661

-60,200

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

125,113,047

+993,769

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchage (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx)

SPDR® Gold Shares

1,029.29

33,092,632

US$ 30,228m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse )

Gold Bullion Securities

129.99

4,179,259

US$ 3,792m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

12.49

400,456

US$ 364m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

28.62

920,227

US$ 840m

NASDAQ Dubai

Dubai Gold Securities

0.16

5,000

US$ 5m

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 2.85 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$1,989,312,763

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

2,179,187.377

Shares Outstanding

22,150,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

67.78

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 0.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$3,253,553,515

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

256,600,428.100

Shares Outstanding

260,250,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

7,981.17

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 3.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

The Miners:

 

ITH’s (THM) closed financing, Northgate’s (NXG) fourth quarter earnings, Great Basin’s (GBG) priced offering, Agnico Eagle’s (AEM) exploration update, New Gold’s (NGD) and Western Goldfields’ (WGW) business combination, MAG’s (MVG) corrected estimation error in its resource estimate, and Ecuador’s plans to allow miners to restart operations were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1.  Northern Dynasty

NAK +16.30% $4.78

2.  Freeport

FCX +13.38% $32.21

3.  Anglo American

AAUK +10.82% $7.27

 

LOSERS

1.  New Gold

NGD-13.97% $1.54

2.  MAG

MVG -7.78% $4.15

3.  Harmony

HMY-3.33% $11.04

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today’s gold and silver stock news:

Quri Resources Launches a University Assistance Program – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Zoloto Resources announces closing of non-brokered private placement – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. Closes $10,500,000 Bought Deal Equity Financing – “International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (“ITH” or “the Company”) (CDNX:ITH.V – News)(AMEX:THM – News)(Frankfurt:IW9.F – News) is pleased to announce that, on March 4, 2009, it closed its previously announced private placement through a syndicate of underwriters (“Underwriters”) and sold an aggregate of 4,200,000 common shares of the Company (“Shares”) at a price of $2.50 per Share for gross proceeds of $10,500,000 on a bought deal basis in Canada and a concurrent private placement in the United States to accredited investors (the “Offering”).” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Consolidated Thompson Comments on Recent Stock Activity – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

 

Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

ADP Employment

Feb

-697K

-630K

-522K

ISM Services

Feb

41.6

41.0

42.9

 

“The Obama administration kicked off a new program Wednesday that’s designed to help up to 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments.”

 

The fed’s Beige Book showed that the fed is not expecting an upturn in the economy until late 2009 or early 2010.

 

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings fourth quarter Productivity expected at 1.1%, Unit Labor Costs expected at 3.8%, and Initial Jobless Claims for 2/28 expected at 650,000.  At 10AM is the Factory Orders report for January expected at -3.5%.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil prices rose 9% as inventories fell and hopes for increasing demand from China increased after rumors surfaced about a second stimulus package from them soon.  Oil inventories fell 700,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose 200,000 barrels, distillates rose 1,700,000 barrels, and refinery utilization rose 1.7% to 83.1%.

 

The U.S. dollar index fell as the euro rose ahead of tomorrow’s ECB and BOE meetings that are expected to see cuts of 50 basis points each.  All eyes and ears will be on Trichet’s speech following the expected cuts as it may indicate a possible change in policy heading forward.

 

Treasuries fell as the Dow and S&P rebounded from yesterday’s 12-year closing lows “on word of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package and an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.”

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were GE, Costco, BJ’s, Toll Brothers, Liz Claiborne, Exxon, and SunTrust.

 

The Commentary:

 

“Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

 

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

 

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

 

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

 

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

 

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

 

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

 

I did not wish to yell “fire in the theatre.”

 

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.”– Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

 

“Dear CIGAs,

 

General long liquidation and some fresh short selling continues to occur in the paper gold market at the Comex as short term oriented traders express disappointment in the lack of a reported increase in holdings in the gold ETF, GLD. Gold is still probing for a low from which to base. See the chart for some comments on the various technical levels where that might be found.

 

Gold moved inversely to the equity markets today as stock prices moved higher in a bit of a relief rally after being down for 5 straight days in a row. Chatter was that China was on the verge of an economic recovery and what is therefore good for China is good for the entire global economy. The surge in copper prices today after yesterday’s strong move higher also fed into that theory. What those espousing the “copper theory” do not understand apparently is arbitrage. Copper prices in Shanghai and London were and are trading at two different price levels and arbitragers are taking advantage of that price discrepancy. That has copper flowing to China and drawing down supplies in London which is being interpreted as signs that China is going to recover first. My view is that once arbitrage corrects the price discrepancy and the Chinese are finished restocking at bargain prices, the drawdown in LME copper stocks will come to an abrupt halt. China is certainly planning on using some of that copper with its own economic stimulus plan but one has to wonder if that sort of thing is going to produce lasting economic gains seeing that part of the problems in China are excessive production and supply capacity. I guess we will find out…”– Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com

 

“April Gold closed down 6.9 at 906.7. This was 1.2 up from the low and 16.3 off the high.

 

March Silver finished up 0.205 at 12.9, equal to the high and equal to the low.

 

The gold market clearly was undermined by several developments that seemed to deflate the flight to quality angle in the marketplace. Clearly the Chinese stimulus news was a major catalyst behind an improvement in macro economic sentiment and that in conjunction with what appeared to be a key reversal in the Dollar seemed to turn up the long liquidation pressure on the gold market. It is also possible that additional US government offerings served to tamp down fears that the US wasn’t in control of its future, as the idea that things were about to get out of control was certainly part of the reason gold prices recently managed to rise above $1,000. While anxiety might not stay tamped down, the gold market on Wednesday certainly seemed to be fearful of that happening in the near term.

 

The silver market clearly diverged with the gold market and that seemed to be the result of silver tracking its physical commodity factors, while the gold market was seeing financially orientated long liquidation pressure. With the copper market adding almost 10 cents per pound today and up 20 cents from this week’s lows, it was clear that interest in industrial metals was serving to lift the fortunes of silver. Certainly the Chinese stimulus package was a large source of support for silver but in retrospect the strength in the equity market had to give some silver buyers an incentive.”– The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

GATA Posts:

 

 

Liberty Dollar founder on Fox News today

TheStreet.com notes complaints of manipulation of silver

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 3/04/2009

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

8,655,661

-60,200

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

125,113,047

+993,769

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchage (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx)

SPDR® Gold Shares

1,029.29

33,092,632

US$ 30,228m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse )

Gold Bullion Securities

129.99

4,179,259

US$ 3,792m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

12.49

400,456

US$ 364m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

28.62

920,227

US$ 840m

NASDAQ Dubai

Dubai Gold Securities

0.16

5,000

US$ 5m

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 2.85 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$1,989,312,763

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

2,179,187.377

Shares Outstanding

22,150,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

67.78

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 0.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$3,253,553,515

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

256,600,428.100

Shares Outstanding

260,250,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

7,981.17

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 3.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

The Miners:

 

ITH’s (THM) closed financing, Northgate’s (NXG) fourth quarter earnings, Great Basin’s (GBG) priced offering, Agnico Eagle’s (AEM) exploration update, New Gold’s (NGD) and Western Goldfields’ (WGW) business combination, MAG’s (MVG) corrected estimation error in its resource estimate, and Ecuador’s plans to allow miners to restart operations were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1.  Northern Dynasty

NAK +16.30% $4.78

2.  Freeport

FCX +13.38% $32.21

3.  Anglo American

AAUK +10.82% $7.27

 

LOSERS

1.  New Gold

NGD-13.97% $1.54

2.  MAG

MVG -7.78% $4.15

3.  Harmony

HMY-3.33% $11.04

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today’s gold and silver stock news:

Quri Resources Launches a University Assistance Program – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Zoloto Resources announces closing of non-brokered private placement – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. Closes $10,500,000 Bought Deal Equity Financing – “International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (“ITH” or “the Company”) (CDNX:ITH.V – News)(AMEX:THM – News)(Frankfurt:IW9.F – News) is pleased to announce that, on March 4, 2009, it closed its previously announced private placement through a syndicate of underwriters (“Underwriters”) and sold an aggregate of 4,200,000 common shares of the Company (“Shares”) at a price of $2.50 per Share for gross proceeds of $10,500,000 on a bought deal basis in Canada and a concurrent private placement in the United States to accredited investors (the “Offering”).” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Consolidated Thompson Comments on Recent Stock Activity – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

 

Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

 

 

Pacific Gold Corp. – Yorkville Debt Agreement – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Lake Victoria Mining Company Reports Drill Progress at Geita Gold Project, Northern Tanzania – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail
Logan Resources updates resource estimate for Brynnor Iron Project, Vancouver Island, based on results of 2008 drill program – More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail
 
Ecuador to allow big miners to restart ops in March – “Ecuador will allow Kinross (K.TO) and Corriente (CTQ.TO) to restart exploration later in March after nearly one year of a freeze in mining operations, Oil and Mines Minister Derlis Palacios told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

 

Iamgold (IMG.TO) and International Minerals Corp will be allowed in about 45 days after governmental studies on their operations located in protected areas, Palacios said.” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail

 

 

 

 

 
Ecuador to allow big miners to restart ops in March – “Ecuador will allow Kinross (K.TO) and Corriente (CTQ.TO) to restart exploration later in March after nearly one year of a freeze in mining operations, Oil and Mines Minister Derlis Palacios told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

 

Iamgold (IMG.TO) and International Minerals Corp will be allowed in about 45 days after governmental studies on their operations located in protected areas, Palacios said.” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail

 

 

 

 

Northgate Minerals Posts Fourth Quarter Net Earnings of $0.07 per Share – “Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX: NGX; NYSE ALTERNEXT/AMEX: NXG) today reported net earnings of $18,668,000 or $0.07 per diluted common share and cash flow from operations of $5,858,000 or $0.02 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter of 2008. For the full year, net earnings were $10,742,000 or $0.04 per diluted common share and cash flow from operations was $64,987,000 or $0.25 per diluted common share. Northgate also achieved record gold production in 2008 of 354,800 ounces at a net cash cost of $447 per ounce of gold.” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail
MAG Silver Reports Restated Valdecanas Mineral Resource to Correct Estimation Error – “MAG Silver Corp. (Toronto:MAG.TO – News)(AMEX:MVG – News) (“MAG”) announced today that it has been advised by Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. (“Scott Wilson RPA”) that an error was discovered in the resource estimate that Scott Wilson RPA prepared for the Valdecanas Vein at the Juanicipio project in Zacatecas State, Mexico (the “2009 Independent Resource Estimate”).” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail
Great Basin Gold Ltd. Announces Pricing of C$130 Million Equity Offering – “Great Basin Gold Ltd. (the “Company”) (TSX: GBG; NYSE Alternext: GBG; JSE: GBG) announces that it has priced an offering of 100,000,000 units at a price of C$1.30 per unit resulting in gross proceeds of C$130,000,000. Each unit is comprised of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each full warrant will entitle the holder to purchase a common share of the Company at a price of C$1.60 at any time before 5:00 p.m. (Vancouver time) on October 15, 2010.” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail
New Gold Inc. and Western Goldfields Inc. Announce Business Combination Building a Leading Intermediate Gold Producer – “New Gold Inc. (“New Gold”) (TSX and NYSE Alternext – NGD) and Western Goldfields Inc. (“Western Goldfields”) (TSX – WGI and NYSE Alternext – WGW) today announce that they have entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which New Gold will acquire by way of a plan of arrangement all of the outstanding common shares of Western Goldfields in exchange for one New Gold common share and CDN$0.0001 in cash for each common share of Western Goldfields (the “Transaction”). Upon completion of the Transaction, existing New Gold and Western Goldfields shareholders will own approximately 58% and 42% of the combined company, respectively.” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail
Agnico-Eagle provides exploration update on 2008 activities – “Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (“Agnico-Eagle” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide an update on its 2008 exploration program. During 2008, the Company spent approximately $72 million on exploration, including $38 million of exploration capitalized at its development projects.” More
– March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail

 

– Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

======================

Have A Great Evening! Good Investing!-jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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It’s Still Not Over- Part 2 Obama Where Is Your Birth Certificate?

03 Tuesday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 2008 Election, Barack, Barack Dunham, Barack Hussein Obama, Barack Obama, Barry Dunham, Barry Soetoro, capitalism, Chicago Tribune, Columbia University, Currency and Currencies, D.c. press club, Electoral College, Electors, Finance, fraud, Free Speech, gold, Harvard Law School, hawaii, id theft, Indonesia, Indonesian Citizenship, Investing, investments, Joe Biden, John McCain, Latest News, legal documents, Markets, name change, natural born citizen, Oath of Allegiance of the President of the United State, obama, Occidental College, Phillip Berg, Politics, poser, Presidential Election, Sarah Palin, socialism, Stocks, Today, treason, u.s. constitution, U.S. Dollar, voter fraud, we the people foundation

≈ Comments Off on It’s Still Not Over- Part 2 Obama Where Is Your Birth Certificate?

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Wow! What a firestorm I raised when I posted Part 1 yesterday! I was called various names, accused of being an Indnesian secret agent, and more. Everyone went back and pointed out that the “Certificate of Live Birth” posted was the the proof and how stupid was I to keep bringing this up, or that I had “sour grapes”. So let me answer…This “proof” was proven by forensic experts to be a forgery with an edge border around the certificate from a different year than then year when Barak Obama was born.

Yet no one could post an answer to my next statement if I go to get my passport they U.S. Government will not accept that certificate as proof of citizenship; I must go get and provide my actual long form original certified copy of my Birth Certificate. They also could not provide an answer as to why Barak Obama will not produce his. Is he magically somehow above the rest of us as citizens? According to the constitution he is not!  

So I am still very concerned about Barak Obama’s eligibility to be my President. If he is really a legal citizen of the United States then why can’t he just provide his Birth Certificate?  Why is he hiring so may lawyers and legal defense teams to prevent people from seeing his information and keeping it sealed up? What does that information contain that he is afraid of? What does he have to hide?

Could the reason we have this problem is because Howard Dean and the Democrats never vetted their candidate? Just like Obama has not properly vetted his cabinet appointments. This is basic. If they can’t even do that right, how would you expect them to manage your health care? This is the reason we are now faced with this Constitutional dilemma. It is a major issue for anyone who must follow orders from the ‘Commander-in-Chief’, especially all our men in uniform. It can’t be that hard to find out if Obama is really a natural born American. This issue must be resolved, there is no question about it. Let’s get with it folks.    

This all seems surreal. Nothing like this fraud has ever been attempted before in the history of this Country. Who else knows what information are in those sealed documents and aided and abetted Obama in this fraud? Who were the people who was suppose to have vetted Obama? 

Here is this Man is taking up residence in the White House and being in control of everything including our nuclear weapons and no one has seen any documented proof of who this person really is or where he came from. He has also embarked on the largest spending program ever seen in this country which most financial experts agree will provide very little actual stimulus to you or me, the average American citizen. 

I don’t believe that the Attorney General will appoint a special Prosecutor to investigate these charges.

What is the next legal step?

The Supreme Court refuses to hear any of the cases that have been brought against Obama. It seems that may be why Obama had that closed meeting with the Court. He probably told the Justices something along the lines of “I’m not eligible, but if you take a case and rule against me there will be rioting in the streets. At which time I will be forced to call for Martial Law and that will probably lead to Revolution. If you leave well enough alone, they will eventually give up or I will have them shut up”. Either one of these scenarios will surely destroy us, So what happens now?

I will re-iterate this, I hope he can and will just show us bona-fide proof that he is an American citizen. Because as I just stated we will have either revolution or at least rioting in every major city of this country. If he does prove his eligibility I will be one of the first to shout this out from the rooftops! I will immediately publish both an apology and retraction of any and all articles which I have published doubting his American Citizenship. But at the rate Barak is trying to hide his personal information, the amount of money he is spending to keep it hidden is enough to cause ANY sane and prudent man to question what he is doing.

=============================

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More Military Officers Demand Eligibility Proof — World Net Daily

By Bob Unruh of World Net Daily

Plaintiff: ‘In the worst case … it’s going to be revolution in the streets’

Military officers from the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines are working with California attorney Orly Taitz and her Defend Our Freedoms Foundation, citing a legal right established in British common law nearly 800 years ago and recognized by the U.S. Founding Fathers to demand documentation that may prove – or disprove – Barack Obama’s eligibility to be president.

Taitz told WND today she has mailed to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder a request that he “relate Quo Warranto on Barack Hussein Obama II to test his title to president before the Supreme Court.”

The lengthy legal phrase essentially means an explanation is being demanded for what authority Obama is using to act as president. An online constitutional resource says Quo Warranto “affords the only judicial remedy for violations of the Constitution by public officials and agents.”

Requesting the action are Maj. Gen. Carroll Childers; Lt. Col. Dr. David Earl-Graef; police officer Clinton Grimes, formerly of the U.S. Navy; Lt. Scott Easterling, now serving on active duty in Iraq; New Hampshire State Rep. Timothy Comerford; Tennessee State Rep. Frank Nicely and others.  

“As president-elect, Respondent Obama failed to submit prima facie evidence of his qualifications before January 20, 2009. Election officers failed to challenge, validate or evaluate his qualifications. Relators submit that as president elect, Respondent Obama failed [tO] qualify per U.S. CONST. Amend. XX [paragraph] 3,” the document said.

John Eidsmoe, an expert on the U.S. Constitution now working with the Foundation on Moral Law, an organization founded by former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore after he was removed from office for formally recognizing the Ten Commandments’ influence in the U.S., said the demand is a legitimate course of action.

“She basically is asking, ‘By what authority’ is Obama president,” he told WND. “In other words, ‘I want you to tell me by what authority. I don’t really think you should hold the office.’

“She probably has some very good arguments to make,” Eidsmoe said.

The letter, dispatched to Holder today, is the latest development in the quest by a multitude of lawyers and plaintiffs nationwide for documentation that Obama qualifies to be president under the requirements of the U.S. Constitution.

WND has reported on dozens of legal challenges to Obama’s status as a “natural born citizen.” The Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, states, “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President.”

Some of the lawsuits question whether he was actually born in Hawaii, as he insists. If he was born out of the country, Obama’s American mother, the suits contend, was too young at the time of his birth to confer American citizenship to her son under the law at the time.

Other challenges have focused on Obama’s citizenship through his father, a Kenyan subject to the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom at the time of his birth, thus making him a dual citizen. The cases contend the framers of the Constitution excluded dual citizens from qualifying as natural born.

Where’s the proof Barack Obama was born in the U.S. or that he fulfills the “natural-born American” clause in the Constitution? If you still want to see it, join more than 300,000 others and sign up now!

Several of the cases have involved emergency appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court in which justices have declined even to hear arguments. Among the cases turned down without a hearing at the high court have been petitions by Philip Berg, Cort Wrotnowski, Leo Donofrio and Taitz.

Taitz’ plaintiffs, some of whom potentially face life-or-death situations in defense of the U.S. Constitution on a daily basis, note that information on Quo Warranto against a federal officer normally is related to the attorney general. But since Holder is an Obama friend and appointee, they are asking for the appointment of a special prosecutor to help in presenting documentation to the Supreme Court.

“This information on Quo Warranto includes action between the United States ex rel. and the State of Hawaii over original birth records of Barack H. Obama II being withheld per Hawaii’s privacy laws. Hawaii’s action obstructs the constitutional duties of election officers to validate or evaluate President Elect Obama qualifications to become President under U.S. CONST. art. II § 1, and amend. XX § 3,” the document said.

Eidsmoe said it’s clear that Obama has something in the documentation of his history, including his birth certificate, college records and other documents, “he does not want the public to know.

” What else could be the reason for his hiring law firms across the nation to fight any request for information as basic as his Occidental College records from the early 1980s, he asked. A separate lawsuit has sought the documents to find out whether they indicate Obama, possibly under the name Barry Soetero, attended the college on aid for foreign students.

Obama’s critics warn of the impending constitutional crisis should it be discovered Obama is ineligible and the resulting chaos of trying to figure out what, if any, of his executive branch orders, should be valid.

According to the online Constitution.org resource: “The common law writ of quo warranto has been suppressed at the federal level in the United States, and deprecated at the state level, but remains a right under the Ninth Amendment which was understood and presumed by the Founders, and which affords the only judicial remedy for violations of the Constitution by public officials and agents.”

Taitz told WND the “relators” include members of the Army, Air Force, Marines and Army and feature recipients of some of the highest honors the nation awards, including the Purple Heart.

One is Harry Riley, a veteran military officer who spent part of his career in the Pentagon. Riley said the issue is basically over whether Americans will allow “the trashing” of their Constitution.

“Myself, along with hundreds of thousands of other warriors, have fought for the U.S. Constitution. The whole issue is one of constitutional crisis, in my judgment. How can an individual become the commander-in-chief, or the president of the U.S., with questions regarding his constitutional qualifications?” he asked.

“The whole idea is that America cannot allow an individual to serve as president who isn’t qualified. It destroys our Constitution. It’s the bedrock of our nation,” he said.

“In the worst case, in the long run, if he continues [to fight revealing his documentation,] it’s going to be revolution in the streets,” he warned.

“It’s simply a matter of producing a $12 birth certificate,” Riley said.

“It’s just mindboggling to think an individual who’s been sworn in as the president of the United States would be so small and be such a hypocrite who would be unwilling to simply show a birth certificate,” Riley said.

Taitz told WND she has assembled a list of about 100 names of people – so far – who are willing to be plaintiffs in such a demand.

Childers told WND he’d be perfectly happy if Obama is legitimate, but the truth still matters.

“I personally admire many things about him,” he said. “But if he’s not legitimate, if he’s allowed to violate the Constitution, what else are they going to violate? Take my guns, and my television, telephone? What’s the limit?”

Taitz told WND she’s asking for the appointment of a special prosecutor, such as the role Archibald Cox played in investigating Watergate.

According to author Chester Antieau in his “The Practice of Extraordinary Remedies,” Quo Warranto is one of the oldest rights in common law.

“The earliest case on record appears in the 9th year of Richard I, 1198,” he wrote. “The statute of 9 Anne c. 20 in 1710 authorized a proper officer of a court, with leave of the court, to exhibit an information in the nature of quo warranto, at the ‘relation’ of any person desiring to prosecute the same – to be called the relator. Early American statutes were modeled after the Statute of Anne and, indeed, the statute has often been ruled to be part of the common law we inherited from England.”

Antieau noted the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled, “Quo warranto is addressed to preventing a continued exercise of authority unlawfully asserted, rather than to correct what has already been done. …”

ts first recognize purpose, he said, is “to determine the title of persons claiming possession of public offices and to oust them if they are found to be usurpers.”

Among those who are subject to its demands, under court precedent, are chief executives in other U.S. governmental positions, including governors and sheriffs.

 As WND has reported on several occasions, none of the so-called “evidence” of Obama’s constitutional eligibility produced thus far is beyond reasonable doubt nor as iron-clad as simply producing an authentic birth certificate, something Americans are required to do regularly but the president still refuses to do.

As Jerome Corsi, WND senior staff writer, explained, “The main reason doubts persist regarding Obama’s birth certificate is this question: If an original Hawaii-doctor-generated and Hawaii-hospital-released Obama birth certificate exists, why wouldn’t the senator and his campaign simply order the document released and end the controversy?

“That Obama has not ordered Hawaii officials to release the document,” Corsi writes, “leaves doubts as to whether an authentic Hawaii birth certificate exists for Obama.”

Although Obama officials have told WND all such allegations are “garbage,” here is a partial listing and status update for some of the cases over Obama’s eligibility:

  • New Jersey attorney Mario Apuzzo has filed a case on behalf of Charles Kerchner and others alleging Congress didn’t properly ascertain that Obama is qualified to hold the office of president.
  • Pennsylvania Democrat Philip Berg has three cases pending, including Berg vs. Obama in the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, a separate Berg vs. Obama which is under seal at the U.S. District Court level and Hollister vs. Soetoro a/k/a Obama, brought on behalf of a retired military member who could be facing recall to active duty by Obama.
  • Leo Donofrio of New Jersey filed a lawsuit claiming Obama’s dual citizenship disqualified him from serving as president. His case was considered in conference by the U.S. Supreme Court but denied a full hearing.
  • Cort Wrotnowski filed suit against Connecticut’s secretary of state, making a similar argument to Donofrio. His case was considered in conference by the U.S. Supreme Court, but was denied a full hearing.
  • Former presidential candidate Alan Keyes headlines a list of people filing a suit in California, in a case handled by the United States Justice Foundation, that asks the secretary of state to refuse to allow the state’s 55 Electoral College votes to be cast in the 2008 presidential election until Obama verifies his eligibility to hold the office. The case is pending, and lawyers are seeking the public’s support.
  • Chicago Attorney Andy Martin sought legal action requiring Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle to release Obama’s vital statistics record. The case was dismissed by Hawaii Circuit Court Judge Bert Ayabe.
  • Lt. Col. Donald Sullivan sought a temporary restraining order to stop the Electoral College vote in North Carolina until Barack Obama’s eligibility could be confirmed, alleging doubt about Obama’s citizenship. His case was denied.
  • In Ohio, David M. Neal sued to force the secretary of state to request documents from the Federal Elections Commission, the Democratic National Committee, the Ohio Democratic Party and Obama to show the presidential candidate was born in Hawaii. The case was denied.
  • Also in Ohio, there was the Greenberg v. Brunner case which ended when the judge threatened to assess all case costs against the plaintiff.
  • In Washington state, Steven Marquis sued the secretary of state seeking a determination on Obama’s citizenship. The case was denied.
  • In Georgia, Rev. Tom Terry asked the state Supreme Court to authenticate Obama’s birth certificate. His request for an injunction against Georgia’s secretary of state was denied by Georgia Superior Court Judge Jerry W. Baxter.
  • California attorney Orly Taitz has brought a case, Lightfoot vs. Bowen, on behalf of Gail Lightfoot, the vice presidential candidate on the ballot with Ron Paul, four electors and two registered voters.

In addition, other cases cited on the RightSideofLife blog as raising questions about Obama’s eligibility include:

  • In Texas, Darrel Hunter vs. Obama later was dismissed.
  • In Ohio, Gordon Stamper vs. U.S. later was dismissed.
  • In Texas, Brockhausen vs. Andrade.
  • In Washington, L. Charles Cohen vs. Obama.
  • In Hawaii, Keyes vs. Lingle, dismissed.

Corsi had gone to both Kenya and Hawaii prior to the election to investigate issues surrounding Obama’s birth. But his research and discoveries only raised more questions, the biggest being why, if there exists documentation of Obama’s eligibility, hasn’t it been released to quell the rumors.

Instead, a series of law firms have been hired on Obama’s behalf around the nation to prevent any public access to his birth certificate, passport records, college records and other documents.

=============================
My Note: Mr. Obama, “Why Can’t You Just Provide Us With Your Birth Certificate?” – jschulmansr

Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account– just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

 

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

 

 

 
 
 
 

 

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It’s Not Over Yet!- Obama Where Is Your Birth Certificate?

02 Monday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 2008 Election, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, Barack Obama, China, communism, Conservative, Conservative Resistance, Contrarian, depression, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Electoral College, financial, follow the news, Free Speech, Fundamental Analysis, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, id theft, Joe Biden, Jschulmansr, Latest News, manipulation, market crash, Markets, physical gold, precious metals, Presidential Election, price, price manipulation, Saudi Arabia, silver, socialism, stagflation, Stimulus, The Fed, Today, U.S., u.s. constitution, U.S. Dollar

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It’s not over yet. Obama where is your birth certificate. I mostly blog about Precious Metals Investing, yet even I have some questions for Mr. Obama. No, while I am a conservative I am not a “radical fringe looney conservative” or even a “sore” loser. I have some legitimate concerns. First we have a new President who has never established eligibility to hold his office, this same man is now embarking on the largest spending spree this country has ever seen!

This is supposed to rescue our economy and set things straight with the American Economy. I have several concerns over this such as how now  Obama is ignoring the “earmarks” in the latest bill, this after a campaign promise “no more earmarks”. Next the way we are going to finance this is thru higher taxes, less tax breaks, and a whole lot more debt which America can sorely afford. Are we not selling off our future to the Chinese and Middle Eastern buyers of our governmental debt? I could go a lot more into these economic matters which we have all heard “ad nauseum” over how bad this is for us and especially for the future generations coming up behind us. One fact remains it is under the direction and orders of Mr. Obama.

My next real concern is the fact that almost unannounced and certainly without the press fanfare or opposition, even the vilification the Mr. Bush for his war in Iraq, notably from even Mr. Obama himself! Mr. Obama is sending even more troops into Afghanistan. Oh I forgot, he is going to announce the timetable of withdrawal from Iraq, so at least we will only be fighting on one front; but is this “withdrawal” actually going to turn into a reassignment for the American troops. Also, these troops will be even more cut off from lines of supply than in Iraq. So realistically how much more will this war cost us? Also, do we even have a plan on how we are going to win? Are we going to take over part of Pakistan too? Don’t get me wrong, I want to see Bin Laden and Al Queda destroyed, but all of this is happening under the command of the Commander in Chief, our President Mr. Obama who has yet to even prove eligibility by providing his Birth Certificate. What is up with That?

I f I have to show my Birth Certificate, I gladly do so, not to mention I am legally bound to do so. Why isn’t our president required as the leader and example of our country. If you or I do not show our Birth Certificates when asked face heavy potential liabilities and punishments. How does Mr. Obama get away with this?

FInally, as a Pecious metals analyst, this is great for the long term prospects of Gold and for my investments. Yet I would rather lose all or have losses with my investments than have my country destroyed by a man who can’t even prove he is a bona fide U.S. citizen!

I will have an update later today on Precious metals, if fact Gold retested support early today and then came back to close about $2.50 down to $940 (April Contact). Below in todays articles: It’s not over yet! Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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 The Birther’s Obama Conspiracy Theory – AOL News

Source: AOL NEWS

‘The Birthers’ Continue to Hound Obama

AOL
posted: 14 HOURS 18 MINUTES AGO
comments: 11534
filed under: Political News, The Obama Presidency
(March 1) – Ever since Barack Obama became a prominent political fixture in the country, he has encountered a large number of rumors and smears concerning him and his family.
There was the one rumor about him being a secret Muslim (he is a practicing Christian). And there was the one allegation his wife, Michelle, was caught on videotape using the word “whitey” (no such clip has ever surfaced).
Most of the charges were, for the most part, put to rest by vigorous responses from the Obama team during the campaign.
But one conspiracy theory lives on — despite overwhelming evidence debunking it.
Politico.com reports that the Birthers — a persistent group of conservatives who believe Obama is ineligible to be president because of alleged questions surrounding his birth status — continue to operate and thrive on the fringe.
“Some individuals and groups who are opposed to Obama’s presidency want an ‘acceptable’ reason to cite to convince other individuals and groups who might be on the fence to join in their way of thinking,” said Patricia Turner, who studies rumors at the University of California, Davis.
For the record, officials in Hawaii declared last October that there was no doubt Obama was born in the state. Officials verified that the health department holds the commander in chief’s original birth certificate.
But others are still undeterred.
A lawsuit filed in California by a group called the United States Justice Foundation seeks records from Occidental College, where Obama attended school for a period, in order to verify his nationality — and thus his presidential eligibility, WorldNetDaily reports.
Get the full story about the Birthers at Politico.com to find out about the group’s possible impact on the White House and weigh in, below, on the controversy.
Go to this site to add your vote in the polls about Obama’s Eligibility
==============================
Obama Eligiblility tops AOL NEWS – World Net Dailey

By Drew Zahn
© 2009 WorldNetDaily

 

Internet giant America Online headlined its daily news coverage today with a story and polls covering the “Birthers,” a group of people it describes as “fringe conservatives convinced that Barack Obama is ineligible to be president because of supposed questions surrounding his birth status.” 

 

The AOL coverage quotes an extensive Politico article and cites WorldNetDaily as the source for news on the United States Justice Foundation’s most recent attempt to demand Obama give legal evidence of his constitutional eligibility to serve as president.
 

Politico’s coverage of the questions that still linger over Obama’s birth, however, is far from kind. 

 

 

“Viewed as irrelevant by the White House , and as embarrassing by much of the Republican Party,” writes Politico blogger Ben Smith, “the subculture still thrives from the conservative website WorldNetDaily, which claims that some 300,000 people have signed a petition demanding more information on Obama’s birth.” 

 

Smith then states unequivocally that there is no basis for questioning Obama’s eligibility, that Obama “was in fact born in Honolulu in 1961” and that “long-settled law” resolves his dual citizenship at birth, another fount of legal questions surrounding the sitting president’s eligibility to serve in the Oval Office. Smith cites Hawaii officials who have testified that there do exist records – though unreleased to the public or the courts – verifying Obama’s American birth.

To add fuel to his argument, Smith then quotes from several sources, including radio host Michael Medved, to compile a list of descriptions for those he brands as conspiracy theorists, including the following: embarrassing, destructive, crazy, nutburger, demagogue, money-hungry, exploitative, irresponsible, filthy conservative imposters, the worst enemy of the conservative movement, weird, demented, sick, troubled and not suitable for civilized company.

Politico quotes David Emery, an urban legends writer for About.com, who suggests those that want to see proof of Obama’s eligibility are fueled by revulsion and rage.

“Thanks to the relentless agitation of the conspiracy theorists and the sheer quantity of hypothetical scenarios and legal arguments floating around,” Emery states, “they’ve clearly succeeded in planting unreasonable doubts in reasonable people’s minds.”

As WND has reported on several occasions, however, none of the so-called “evidence” of Obama’s constitutional eligibility produced thus far is beyond reasonable doubt nor as iron-clad as simply producing an authentic birth certificate, something everyday Americans are required to do regularly, but the president still refuses to do.

As Jerome Corsi, WND senior staff writer, explained, “The main reason doubts persist regarding Obama’s birth certificate is this question: If an original Hawaii-doctor-generated and Hawaii-hospital-released Obama birth certificate exists, why wouldn’t the senator and his campaign simply order the document released and end the controversy?

“That Obama has not ordered Hawaii officials to release the document,” Corsi writes, “leaves doubts as to whether an authentic Hawaii birth certificate exists for Obama.”

In its poll, AOL is asking readers: “Do you have any doubt about Obama’s eligibility to be president because of his birth status?”

With more than 250,000 responses, results were nearly split with 47 percent saying yes, and 53 percent saying no.

Readers were also asked, “How damaging is this conspiracy theory to Obama?”

With more than 178,00 responses, 52 percent said “Not at all,” 28 percent said “Somewhat,” and 20 percent said “Very.”

WND has reported on dozens of legal challenges to Obama’s status as a “natural born citizen.” The Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, states, “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the