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Black September is Here Again!

01 Tuesday Sep 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, agricultural commodities, alternate energy, Alternate Fuel Sources, alternative Energy, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bear Trap, bonds, bull market, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Credit Default, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Government Spending, hard assets, heating oil, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, NASDQ, natural gas, Natural Resources, oil, Paladium, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, Saudi Arabia, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Treasury, U.S., U.S. Dollar, U.S. Government unfunded Debt, U.S. Treasury Dept, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Black September is Here Again!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well the dog days of summer are over and September is blowing in. As the brilliant colors of autumn are starting to bloom with the leaves turning orange, gold and crimson; the leaves are starting to drop. That’s not all that is starting to fall, stocks are beginning their seasonal drop. If you haven’t taken profits please do so. We will see one more push up in stocks as they form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation on the chart. We have just finished the head with the right shoulder to follow (DJIA). 9200 (DJIA) is the first support, next roughly 9125-9080. A decisive break below the 50 day moving average or 9000 will be absolute confirmation of the new bear market downtrend. Commercial real estate is one of the next factors (shoe) about to drop. In addition the tax break for buying a new home is about to end, and the auto industry will not have cash for clunkers to fall back on. Late Breaking China has said NO to Credit derivatives and any losses from them. This is definitely not good for the US markets. So get rid of your more speculative stocks move to good yielding stocks in industries that people have to buy the products in good times or bad times. On the rest move your stops very close w/in 10% trailing. Maybe also look at selling covered calls or puts to lock in profits and earn a little income on the side.

Gold and Precious metals are coiled up ready to spring dramatically to the upside. Countdown is almost over, ignition commencing. We have a nice little triangle in Gold. Personally, I feel we will see the breakout to the upside after a little false breakout to the downside. In other words I fell it will go down like this, first we will see Gold test the $930 level as the Big 3 shorts make one more desperate effort to save themselves. However I feel that Gold will hold and climb back to $950 and then break above $965. When that happens the next resistance will be $980, then $1000, and then a 2nd test for the all time high at $1032. I think it will successfully break that level and hit at least $1250 before the end of the year with a potential to actually hit $1325. Keep accumulating companies with a low cost of production, junior and mid tier producers with current or about to start production. There are still many bargains which I will start featuring here on the blog.

I apologize for the recent lack of posts over the past month. Since I lost my day job, I decided to go back to school again so to speak by taking a few intensive trading and technical analysis courses to refresh up again. Since my new job will be trading the markets, I will be sharing my picks and option trades, forex trades, along with choice stock picks. Wishing all of us Great Investing! -jschulmansr

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==============================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

==============================================

John Licata Still Eyeing $1200 Gold in 2009 – GoldSeek.com

Bullish on gold since it carried a $400-per-ounce price tag, Blue Phoenix Chief Investment Strategist John Licata expects the king of metals to ring in the New Year with a $1,200-per-ounce crown. As he told The Gold Report in April, he still considers gold one of the best asset plays in the world. With recovery on the horizon, he’s also high on silver—in part because a pickup in manufacturing will drive up demand. While he says it’s premature to claim economic recovery, he isn’t looking to copper to serve as the traditional harbinger of a return from recession this time. His rationale? Good economic news—while too inconsistent to make recovery imminent—is already baked in to copper’s climb already this year.

The Gold Report: You weren’t too bullish on seeing a recovery in 2009 when we caught up with you in April. We’ve seen some good Q2 reporting from a variety of companies and some encouraging economic data. The government is starting to claim we’re in recovery. What’s your take on this?

John Licata: I do think we’ve seen some better domestic economic data, but it’s premature to think we’re totally out of the woods. In terms of corporate earnings, a lot of company profits might have surprised to the upside, but they’re still down 50% to 70% from quarters before or the prior year.

Many companies have been trying to compare Q1 and Q2. You’re still not seeing dramatic differences to the upside. Quite frankly, some companies are still living within cash flow and I think that’s one of the reasons why we could have a problem with supply and demand imbalances as we come to the end of 2009 and enter 2010.

Unemployment is likely to keep rising. Although the last numbers were much better than anticipated, I don’t think we’ve seen the green light that will cause people to start hiring again. We could hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year, and that’s going to be a precursor to some weaker retail heading into the holiday season. Net-net, you probably could put the word ‘inconsistent’ toward most of the economic data coming out of the U.S.

The industrial numbers that came out of China a couple of weeks ago [August 10] were actually below expectations as well. While everyone wants to be bullish and the data is somewhat better than many expected, it’s still not great. So I think to claim victory right now is definitely premature.

TGR: You mentioned a supply-demand imbalance. What do you see on that front?

JL: Companies are not putting money back into infrastructure. For that reason, once demand actually starts to increase, supply levels will be shockingly different from what people might expect.

TGR: Are you differentiating between the BRIC countries and North America in that regard?

JL: I’m not just looking at the BRIC countries as the barometer for the economic pulse. I don’t even think China is the saving grace for commodities. But I do think what is going to be indicative for a recovery is to see demand pick up, to start seeing jobs pick up again, more consistently; not just one month out of six. We need to see consistent job growth.

TGR: When do you think demand might pick up?

JL: Q3, perhaps Q4, is when we probably can start seeing demand start picking up and I think that’s when we’re going to start to see overall a global economic recovery. I’m skeptical that it can happen before Q4.

TGR: Is that worldwide demand pickup you’re anticipating?

JL: I’m referring to North America.

TGR: Can demand pick up before unemployment abates?

JL: It can happen before, but I think demand and employment will increase in tandem.

TGR: In our previous conversation, you compared the investment opportunities in oil, natural gas and gold to one another. At this point, which of these three sectors do you think offer the greatest return?

JL: Because of the upside that I think could happen over the next 12 months, I would rate natural gas first, gold second and oil third. For right now, I’m conservatively optimistic on oil. Although short term we might have a pullback, I’m still bullish on the price of oil. I think oil will trade north of $80 by year end, and I think we’ll again see triple-digit oil within the next two years. A lot of major wells in the world are not as productive as they once were and when it comes to demand increasing because the overall economic health around the world is picking up, we could be in trouble in terms of supplies. That relates to the metals as well as energy.

TGR: Speaking of metals, your outlook for gold?

JL: I continue to maintain that we could see $1,200 gold prices by year-end. I think gold is very much on the way to hitting that pretty aggressive price target. The miners themselves seem pretty confident on the upside for gold.

TGR: In April, you described gold as one of the best asset plays in the world and your recommendation to investors was to focus initially on physical gold. Have you changed that viewpoint?

JL: No. I’ve been bullish on gold since it was below $400. But now I am starting to see some opportunities in the equity side of the gold market that are becoming very appealing and I didn’t see that when we last spoke.

TGR: Are you still bullish on platinum and palladium, too?

JL: I am still enthusiastic, but not as bullish on either of them just because we have seen a bit of a run since April. I’d rather be in silver. I think silver gets forgotten when we start talking about precious metals. As opposed to platinum or palladium, I would rather be in the silver space.

TGR: Is there anything in particular in silver that you’re finding appealing?

JL: I just think if we’re talking about an economic recovery in the back half of this year into 2010 and silver is mostly used for industrial purposes, I honestly think that silver prices are just forgotten. When people start talking about the inflation hedge, they jump into gold. If they start talking about the economy improving, they jump into copper. They tend to forget that silver is actually used for much manufacturing. So I think that is the forgotten metal and I do think that silver prices can move a lot higher, especially as gold prices march through $1,000.

TGR: As you say, people look to copper as the leading metal to point to in terms of a recovery. What’s your feeling about copper?

JL: You hit the nail on the head. Everyone starts to talk about copper, but nothing has jumped out at me to say that copper prices have much more upside. Copper prices are up nearly 100% year-to-date, so I think a lot of the recovery that many people are talking about has been priced in already.

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that just had the biggest monthly drop since October (down 28% in August), has been down because people fear that China might cut back on buying iron ore and coal. If that happens, copper prices won’t be immune. Copper supplies have been tight for the last couple of quarters. If anything, we’re trading about 35 cents or 40 cents above the recent 50-day moving average. I think copper is over-extended right now.

TGR: Any last comments before we meet again?

JL: Only that while it’s a difficult marketplace and I do expect tight markets around the world to continue, some of the plays we’ve talked about have the makings of a pretty successful portfolio.

After studying economics and graduating from Saint Peter’s College in New Jersey (where he received the Wall Street Journal Award for economic excellence), John J. Licata set his sights on Wall Street. During his career, John has held both trading and research positions on the NYMEX, Dow Jones, Smith Barney and Brokerage America. Early in 2006, he founded Blue Phoenix, Inc., an independent energy/metals research and consulting firm based in New York City. John, the company’s Chief Investment Strategist, has appeared regularly in the media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV/Radio, Business News Network (BNN), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Sun, Los Angeles Times, etc.) over the years for his insights/forecasts in the commodity spectrum.

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2009 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Inc. hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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A Sucker’s 2 day rally – New $725 Stock Tip!

16 Thursday Jul 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in agricultural commodities, alternate energy, Alternate Fuel Sources, alternative Energy, Austrian school, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bear Trap, bonds, bull market, Comex, commodities, Copper, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, Geothermal Energy, GeoThermal Power, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, heating oil, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Latest News, Long Bonds, Make Money Investing, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, natural gas, Natural Resources, Nouriel Roubini, oil, PAL, Paladium, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, rare earth metals, S&P 500, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, Strategic Metals, Strategic Minerals, Strategic Resources, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Treasury, U.S. Dollar

≈ Comments Off on A Sucker’s 2 day rally – New $725 Stock Tip!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, Nouriel Roubini, NXG, Osisko Mining, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

I really hope you haven’t been fooled by this latest little upswing over the last couple of days in the Stock Markets. Please take your profits now and do it tomorrow! Turn that money over into resource based stocks especially Gold and Silver, Oil and Energy, and your basic foodstuff and base metal commodities. Wed. rally was to get rid of the weak shorts snatch their cash and today fool them to turn their positions and catch them with a whipsaw. Thurs. rally basically caused by Roubini semi positive remarks on the economy. How interesting, I wonder what tomorrow Fri. result will be when the markets hear about Roubini’s rebuttal (of course after market close!).

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If you can’t wait scroll to bottom of the post for today’s free $725 value stock tip…

I wanted to take a minute and share with you some excellent links to INO.com Market Club. I am personally a member and I love their charting tools and their patented “Triangle Technology”. This is a “must have” for any serious trader. I’ve arranged for my readers a couple of special videos on the Dow Jones Industrial’s, the Dollar Index, the Aussie Dollar.

Watch them, look around Ino, Market Club, and sign up for the “free” stuff to check them out…

Important Dow Update, July 14th

In today’s short video I am going to be revisiting the Dow Jones Industrial index (DJI).

Dow Update

I think it’s very interesting to see what our “Trade Triangles” are doing as well as what our Talking Charts are saying about this market.

I’ll also be using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. If you have not seen this tool in action, I strongly recommend that you watch today’s video.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements.

Exploring the Dollar Index

While the US dollar was supposed to lose ground against its counter parties, the market has remained surprisingly stubborn and trapped in a sideways trading range.

In today’s video I will explore what’s going on, and where I think this market is headed in the future.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements.

Dollar Index

What’s up with the currency from down-under?

We are taking a trip down under today.

It has been sometime since we last looked at the relationship between the US dollar and the Australian dollar (USD/AUD). Today seemed like an opportune time to look at this cross and to figure out where it is headed using our “Trade Triangle” technology.

We’re also using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. If you have not seen this tool in action, I strongly recommend that you watch today’s video.

Aussie Dollar

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

======================================

Roubini refutes better outlook – MarketWatch

By Kate Gibson

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Economist Nouriel Roubini on Thursday refuted reports that he had improved his economic outlook, saying his comments at an investors conference earlier in the day were taken out of context. “I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010,” Roubini said in a statement.

======================================

Roubini: I Was Taken Out of Context – The Street.Com

The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor, and professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:

It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports — however — my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything, my views were taken out of context.

I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year-end, it will have lasted 24 months, with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put, I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year-end — as I have consistently predicted — it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper — in terms of cumulative GDP contraction — than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

I have also consistently argued — including in my remarks today — that while the consensus predicts that the U.S. economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession, as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

While the recession will be over by the end of the year, the recovery will be weak, given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive releveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks, the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such [a] large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the U.S. and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued. the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com

==================================

Now for the $725 "HOT" Stock Tip. Another leading newsletter is
offering to give the name of this new Gold Find the 7th largest
Gold deposit in North America. Surrounded by some very compelling
and excellent copywriting that I have seen, you are drawn into the 
story about renegade geologist and his team have uncovered one of 
the largest gold reserves in North America – over $10 billion dollars
worth.

All is now in place to begin mining the earth and getting the gold out 
of the ground and the mine into production. Equipment is already bought 
and being delivered. What’s even better is that this is an  opportunity 
that where this small company has so much gold that it’s about become a
mid-size gold producer in record time.

One thing I can tell you is this... The best time to "buy" gold is
before a single ounce comes out of the ground... while the shares
are still very cheap. Currently trading for around $6-$6.50, while
the gold alone is worth roughly $35 per share). 

Drum Roll Please... The name of the company Osisko Mining Corp. (OSKFF).

Enjoy and Good Investing! - jschulmansr

 ===============================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; 
Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:
  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!
Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault 
===============================================
Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell
any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational
purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s,
Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information
carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.
–  jschulmansr

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Quick Update for Dare Something Worthy Today Too!

10 Friday Jul 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in alternate energy, Alternate Fuel Sources, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, Barack Hussein Obama, Bear Trap, Comex, commodities, Conservative, Conservative Resistance, Contrarian, Copper, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, DARE SOMETHING WORTHY TODAY, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, gata, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, heating oil, How To Invest, How To Make Money, how to use twitter, hyper-inflation, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, NASDQ, natural gas, Natural Resources, Nuclear Energy, oil, Paladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, Politics, precious metals, Today

≈ Comments Off on Quick Update for Dare Something Worthy Today Too!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Sorry, been so busy setting up things for Twitter and my other businesses. Hang in there with Gold and Precious Metals. With everything that is coming down, new regulations, audit of the Fed, and etc.; thing are getting tougher and tougher for those who are and have been manipulating the Gold and Silver Markets. They (the big 3) and others are trying to take advantage of this being a normally slow time in the Gold Markets and are trying to make the charts appear (from a technical basis), that the rally has ended. Please do not fall for this! Keep accumulating more shares of all the tiers of producers and explorers who are about to start production. If you are buying Bullion TAKE DELIVERY! I still predicting that we will see Gold at $1250 and Silver $25 by the end of this year. Hold On, Be Patient, Take Delivery, and use this Opportunity to continue accumulating. I will have a new tip either tomorrow or the weekend.

In the meantime you can follow me and the markets on Twitter. I Tweet quite often during the day at the following sites on Twitter below. I reciprocate all follows and friend requests. Here is what I have set up for you on Twitter, please follow all or at least the ones that interest you. I will be starting back to daily posts in the next few weeks. Here is my also a little about me and my latest profile on Seeking Alpha:

Seeking Alpha profile link

I am an Open Networker, Top Linked, LION (worn with pride!), and accept all LinkedIn and FaceBook friend/join my network requests. In addition I reciprocate all Follows on Twitter.

FaceBook: http://FaceBook.com/jschulmansr

LinkedIn: http://LinkedIn.com/in/jschulmansr

Twitter: http://Twitter.com/jschulmansr

Friend Feed: http://friendfeed.com/jschulmansr

I am also an avid Tweeter on Twitter and have the following Twitter Sites.

http://Twitter.com/jschulmansr – Much like my Blog

http://Twitter.com/DareSomething – Politics and Conservative/Libertarian Issues

http://Twitter.com/TweetsGold – Gold Markets and Everything Gold.

http://Twitter.com/TweetsSilver – Silver Markets and Everything Silver

http://Twitter.com/TweetsOil – Oil & Energy Markets, Alternate & Green Energy

http://Twitter.com/TweetsForex – Forex, Currency Markets and Trading

http://Twitter.com/TweetsTheCash – Internet and Affiliate Marketing

http://Twitter.com/7FigureTweets – Internet and MLM marketing

I am just a simple guy, I love Investing. Nothing better than making a trade and Winning. The Life of a trader is this Hours upon Hours of Boredom punctuated by moments of Sheer Elation or Sheer Terror! LOL!
I could bore you with how I have held every Series License from Stocks, Commodities, Bonds and Insurance at one time or another, how I have 25yrs. + trading experience.  Or tell you tales of my greatness but bottom line, I love what I do and I love to share, learn from and teach other people. My definition of being successful is while you are climbing up the mountain of Success, you are also holding out your hands to those below, to help pull others up the mountain with you. I hope you enjoy my blog, Tweets, and that I am able to entertain, but at the same time help you. Enjoy and May God Bless You Richly and Abundantly!

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Gold Ratios – Time To Pay Attention – Seeking Alpha

By: Gary Tanashian of Notes From The Rabbit Hole

Ever since the sentimentally unsustainable negative events of Q4, 2008, when gold simply exploded higher in ratio to over-played assets far and wide in a panicked rush for safety, the ancient monetary metal has been consolidating its relative gains. As noted at the time in NFTRH, this excessive reaction had to be worked off. Now, unfortunately for the unprepared and hopeful, it has been worked off. Forewarned is forearmed.

 

Dialing forward to today, we find a tired rally in nominal stock, commodity and low quality debt prices. We see a rising Gold-Silver ratio (GSR) and a US dollar not far above our ‘do or die’ support level of 78. See the free, albeit abbreviated issue of NFTRH (.pdf) for the monthly view of USD.

NFTRH held and added gold miners strongly throughout the process of gold’s impulsive rise in ratio to the things that are positively correlated to economies and rising human spirits. This, even as nominal gold stock prices imploded. Positions were added ‘all in and around’ a historic bottom and this trade has paid off quite well.

Okay, that is history. Now what?

We have been watching the GSR (among other indicators) tirelessly and its message for the markets has been actively bearish for about a month now. To review, when silver is rising relative to gold it indicates a willingness on the part of market participants to accept risk, to ‘play’. The GSR has been working like a more sensitive version of the VIX in recent years. Ah, but there is literally a world of ratios that can be used to advantage when attempting to gauge the winds of the markets.

In the chart included today we see gold in ratio to the Reuters CRB commodity index ($CCI). Even as many people micromanage nominal prices of asset markets, gold’s ratio to commodities tells a story of a bottom in the making, which of course tells a story of a top in the making in what NFTRH called ‘Hope 09’.

Let this short article serve as notice that gold’s consolidation vs. the assets of hope looks to be in its final stages. This is a bullish chart, and in this weekend’s NFTRH41, we will look at gold’s ratio to several other assets and markets. It is time to pay attention and it is time to get it right.

Markets travel in roundabout directions and cycles – both short and long term – must be endured. It is technical, sentiment and market ratio analysis that guides us through these cycles and keeps us on the right track. Please heed the above chart and consider what will happen when gold finishes consolidating the explosive ratio gains of 2008.

 ===================================================

My Note: If you payed attention and I know my readers did, it is time to buy Gold now, the consolidation is almost over. This means Gold and Precious Metals are about to resume their rally and very soon! Once again, I am calling for Gold at $1250 and Silver at $25 by the end of this year. You are never hurt by getting in early, but definitely hurt by getting in too late or missing it altogether; Buy Precious metals in any form. If Bullion TAKE DELIVERY! -Good Investing! – jschulmansr

 

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr


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Sell in May and Go Away? I almost Did!

25 Thursday Jun 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, alternate energy, Alternate Fuel Sources, alternative Energy, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, bear market, Bear Trap, best twitter apps, central banks, Comex, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Geothermal Energy, GeoThermal Power, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, how to change, How To Invest, How To Make Money, IMF, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, Make Money Investing, manipulation, market crash, Markets, mining companies, mining stocks, oil, Paladium, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, The Fed, Twitter, U.S. Dollar

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Yes, I almost did! However things are just getting too interesting. Unemployment up again and the market (DJI) is trying to rally, currently up 52 points! Unbelievable, when will reality sink in. We are stuck in a recession and the other “shoe” hasn’t even dropped yet. Don’t be fooled by this “suckers” rally! I hope you took out most of your profits on your non-resource related stocks, especially financials. I still stand by my claim we will see the (DJI) test 6500 again before we ever get to even 9000!

If you are into Forex here is a “gimme” Buy USD/RUB. My reason is simple, traders are starting to panic as Russia’s situation is growing worse. The world bank and the IMF have both stated the Russian economy is and will be stuck in recession for many years to come. As the traders unwind out of the Ruble they will go into US dollars. Don’t get me wrong I think the Dollar will continue to fall as the Fed and Bernanke are running out of ways to keep propping it up. I just think the Ruble will drop faster. Disclosure Long

For Gold and Precious metals. We have a perfect head and shoulders formation in place. If we break back thru $955 I think we have confirmation that Gold is going to mount it’s next attack at $1000 despite continued manipulation to artificially hold it down. Take deliver is the new Rally cry! Let’s catch them with their shorts down! Sorry, no pun intended!. Disclosure Long (Bullion and Stocks) Precious Metals.

Next as promised, here is my hot stock tip! (NGLPF) Nevada Geothermal Power. I like this stock for several reasons, first it is still “undiscovered by the street. Second, it is in the Alternate (Green) Energy Industry; so an Obama “darling”. Plus, their first power generation plant is ahead of schedule and due to come online in October of this year. It is currently tading in the 60-70cent range. I am buying all the way up to a $1 dollar level. This is another “buy and forget. I think it has the potential to be a 10 “bagger”. As always due your due diligence and read  the prospectus before you ever invest. Disclosure Long

Finally, I receive no compensation for any stock I mention here, these are my own personal trades that I share from time to time. If I ever do start receiving compensation for reccomendations, I will disclose that immediately. Good Trading!- jschulmansr

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Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

                                        – Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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Gold Report: Brien Lundin: Is Gold Holding a Wild Card?

05 Wednesday Nov 2008

Posted by jschulmansr in Alternate Fuel Sources, commodities, Copper, deflation, Finance, gold, hard assets, inflation, Investing, investments, Latest News, Markets, mining stocks, Nuclear Energy, oil, precious metals, silver, U.S. Dollar, Uncategorized

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Brien Lundin: Is Gold Holding a Wild Card?
Source: The Gold Report  11/04/2008

As difficult as it may be for precious metals investors to sit on their hands, that may be the best “action” for surviving this hazardous transition from deflationary to inflationary times. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gold Newsletter Editor Brien Lundin explains why it is absolutely inevitable that inflation will trigger a rise in gold and hints that a December “surprise” could end the waiting game. While his advice is to let this round of deleveraging and deflation end before making any serious plays, he names a few bargains that stand out even in a downturn.

The Gold Report: Gold and the Dow are both going down. Shouldn’t they be decoupling and if they do, what would it take to make that happen?

Brien Lundin: There’s a fancy word out there – deleveraging – that’s being bandied about almost as much as the word depression. All the pundits and the analysts are talking about deleveraging. What that really means is that market participants are selling hand over fist because they have to. The prices we’re seeing for assets now, whether it’s stocks, commodities, or gold, do not reflect the underlying value of those assets. People are selling them simply because they have to—whether because of margin calls or redemptions from hedge funds or what have you, the assets have to be sold. That’s why anything with a bid, anything that can be sold in volume is being sold. Underlying trends have nothing to do with it.

I do think we’ll see stocks and gold decoupling. We’ll see all of these asset classes start to establish their own trends based on economic fundamentals, once some stability returns to the market. First we have to get past these great down drafts driven by the need for liquidity.

TGR: When do you see that happening?

BL: That’s a difficult call. Some predict the bailout plan will have an impact soon—over the coming few weeks. I think that enough damage has been done to last for the rest of this year. Simply having gotten through October will bring a big psychological boost. It was such a hazardous month and had earned such a well-deserved reputation for being treacherous for equity investors.

At this point, everyone who doesn’t have to sell, who isn’t on margin, or doesn’t need the liquidity, should just sit back, keep their heads low and wait until the New Year.

TGR: But when do you expect some stability?

BL: It’s hard to say how much more selling will occur. A lot of money has certainly flown out of the commodities sector and the stock market. We’ve lost $3 trillion in wealth in the stock market alone since the bailout. And yet, while there’s already been a tremendous amount of selling, there is still some money on the sidelines. It’s just impossible to predict when stable markets, much less an uptrend, will come.

TGR: What do you think of the fact that the value of the U.S. dollar has increased against most other currencies? What’s causing that given all this financial turmoil?

BL: A couple of things. First off, assets are being sold to raise dollars to meet margin calls and redemptions. Until the margin clerks and fund investors start accepting gold in payment, then we’re not going to see gold rising in such an environment.

Secondly, the dollar has been in a bit of a short squeeze. A number of European banks have had to buy dollars to fund redemptions from clients with accounts based in U.S. dollars. The pressure resulting from redemptions and withdrawals forced them to buy dollars at virtually any cost to redeem these calls. That short squeeze has elevated the relative value of the dollar over the near term. This situation won’t last. But typically, when a rebound from a short squeeze occurs, there will be a dramatic move in the opposite direction.

TGR: By dramatic, do you mean fast?

BL: A lower dollar, a weaker dollar. And yes, in fairly quick fashion.

TGR: A weaker dollar would push up the value of physical gold.

BL: Absolutely. And over the longer term, that will happen eventually. Trillions of dollars of are being created to bail out financial institutions and local economies. This will have a dramatic effect on inflation. But for now, this deleveraging process is highly deflationary. We’re getting a stronger dollar and relatively lower values for anything the dollar will buy. But ultimately, all these newly created dollars and all of this new fiat currency worldwide will result in much higher inflation.

TGR: You are predicting we are headed for an inflationary environment?

BL: Oh, absolutely. Even if the currency that has been created or promised thus far proves insufficient to engender an inflationary environment, the financial authorities will create whatever amount it takes to bring about inflation. That’s only way to stop deflation. They cannot transition gradually from a deflationary environment to one with low inflation. The pendulum will have to swing hard in the other direction.

TGR: Will the pendulum swinging bring the end of deleveraging? You said earlier that as the deleveraging process completes itself, that the asset classes will now reestablish themselves on their own merits.

BL: Yes.

TGR: Once this deleveraging ends, inflation begins?

BL: Yes, but once we pass through a difficult transition period from a deflationary environment into an inflationary one. We’re probably living through it right now. There’s no telling when the pendulum has reached bottom, and when it’s going to start swinging the other way. Every time we think we’ve hit a bottom in the stock market, we test a new one. Every time we think the last shoe has dropped, another one falls. This uncertainty and fear of what lies ahead really bothers the market.

For so long we didn’t realize that the market was barreling along with blindfolds on. Suddenly these obstacles are hitting us with great force and we don’t know what or where the next stumbling block will be. And that’s scary.

TGR: But in that uncertainty lies opportunity.

BL: Absolutely, but it takes more than insight to see opportunity. It also takes guts to act on it. We all recognize that this is opportunity, but it’s the proverbial falling knife syndrome. When do you step in? I’ve pecked away at a few irresistible bargains myself and in some cases those irresistible bargains are now trading for half of what I paid for them.

So it’s hard to find the bottom, but there is value here. I’m advising my readers not to over-extend themselves. Wait for a trend to establish itself, give up some of these early gains before you jump in wholeheartedly. With that said, it’s not a bad time to peck away at some bargains here and there.

TGR: Do you have some bargains you can share with us?

BL: Yes, I do. All are extremely undervalued and selling for small fractions of their peak prices. The key is to find companies with real assets and the financial wherewithal to survive this down market.

NovaGold Resources (NG:AMEX)(NG:TSX), at these levels, is a tremendous bargain. There’s been a lot of concern about NovaGold and what’s going to happen at Galore Creek, but I think that’s going to end up being a bigger, more profitable project than anyone is currently imagining. Inter-Citic Minerals (ICI.TO) is another great company with a tremendous gold project in China. It’s trading for around 30 cents—a fraction of what this project is worth even at today’s prices. It’s a multi-million ounce project with considerable growth potential. Keegan Resources Inc. (AMEX.KGN) is another one. I think they’ll end up with close to 3 million ounces in their West African projects. Keegan sells for 75 cents with about a $22 million market cap.

On the uranium front, I like Hathor Exploration (HAT: TSX.V). This company is one of the only bright spots in today’s junior stock market. They have a tremendous high-grade uranium discovery in the Athabasca Basin and have only explored about a third of the structure that hosts the uranium mineralization. Roughly outlined, they’ve probably got close to 40 million pounds—once that’s drilled out to a compliant resource, it’s probably worth about $300 million even in today’s market. But Hathor’s trading for well under half that value right now, and the deposit should grow much larger. So I really like Hathor as a stock that almost assuredly will trade for considerably higher prices down the road.

TGR: You follow uranium quite closely. Can you just give us an overview? What’s the outlook for uranium juniors?

BL: Uranium is a great long-term story, but when prices reached $110 to $120 a pound, it did get very much ahead of itself. Since then, we’ve come back to earth, and hard. A lot of that drop in price can be attributed to the diminishing outlook for the global economy. But a significant part of the decline has to do with the fact that hedge funds were speculating in uranium on the long side and they have obviously deleveraged. Some of them no longer exist.

The bottom line is that a lot of the uranium positions—not just the companies, but actually the metal itself—have been sold down. Uranium’s long-term story remains bullish, but it’s not going to develop as quickly as everyone had hoped during the ‘urani-mania’ a couple of years ago. We’re going to have to see China grow considerably, for example. A lot of the uranium forecasts were based on the number of nuclear reactors that China was going to build as well as the rest of the world. But it takes a long time to build a nuclear power plant, even in China. The long-term trend is up, but along the way there will be bumps and corrections like those we’re experiencing right now.

TGR: So even a recommendation like Hathor, which has been pounded down by the market in general along with the drop in the price of uranium, would take awhile to bounce up?

BL: Hathor is such an exciting, high-grade story that its prices are being driven by its exploration success, making it largely independent of the short-term uranium price. Granted, some analysts have made rough calculations of its net asset value and then, rather than assign a price target that’s a multiple of its NAV, end up with a target that’s just half of its NAV. Unfortunately, that’s a function of today’s uranium market. But Hathor will be driven by drill results over the next three to six months, while the rest of the sector will remain pretty moribund. Most uranium explorers need a price over $80, because a lot of uranium in the ground becomes economic around that level. And we’ll need sustained prices around $100 before lower-grade uranium projects become viable and lead the representative stocks to rise.

TGR: At what point will existing nuclear facilities begin to consume enough to push the price up?

BL: When uranium was trading for over $100, everyone agreed that was the time. Now that uranium is in the mid-$40s, I just don’t think that anyone can predict when we’re going to sustain those higher prices again. The decline in the broader commodities market and the corresponding strength in the dollar are having an effect here. Again, I think we need to get through this temporary deflationary phase and the stronger dollar. A weakening dollar will start to bring up commodity prices. That’s when uranium will creep back. But it could be late 2009 before we can see that happen.

TGR: Do you cover any of the rare minerals in the Gold Newsletter?

BL: Not too closely. It’s difficult for those rare mineral projects to get much attention in this market. Gold is what really drives a bullish environment for resource stocks. You really need a very broad commodity bull market before those more obscure metals and elements get noticed. One exception is Rare Element Resources Ltd. (RES:TSX.V). It’s the best of the rare earth plays, ironically, because of its gold project, Sundance, joint ventured with Newmont. Sundance will drive RES, while the rare earth component is more of a backdrop to the gold story.

TGR: Interesting. So even though there’s demand for rare earth minerals from many different areas, that won’t be enough to move Rare Element Resources forward?

BL: No, I don’t think so. I think that’s a gold story.

TGR: You have a conference coming up in New Orleans, from November 13-17. How would investors interested precious metals and/or uranium benefit from your conference?

BL: Investors will get the latest thinking from leading experts in mining and resource stocks—from some of the very people who predicted this downturn. I am referring to Rick Rule, Dave Coffin, Lawrence Roulston, Brent Cook, Greg McCoach and others, who do very well finding the bargains that will survive. Investors will also hear from some of the biggest names and the most respected experts in geopolitics and economics. We take great pride in presenting the most celebrated leaders in the world, who not only take a look at the big picture but also drill down to the details.

TGR: Steve Forbes will be there.

BL: Yes, and Fred Thompson will give us look at the geopolitical angle. Our conference takes place right after the U.S. presidential and congressional elections, and investors need to gain a clear understanding of how the elections will impact the economy, investments and tax strategy. So in addition to Thompson and Forbes, we’ll also hear from Stephen Moore, a noted economist affiliated with the Cato Institute and the Wall Street Journal. James Carville, a well known political operative, will tell us what the fallout of this election will be for the American investor.

And Doug Casey, representing libertarians, will have his annual debate with a conservative and a liberal, i.e., with Thompson and Carville. That’s a real crowd pleaser with a lot of fireworks.

TGR: That’s got to be lively.

BL: People always pack the halls for that one.

TGR: Any last thoughts on where gold will be by the end of the year?

BL: I think I will beg off on that one. Frankly, I don’t want to jinx it, but I think we could see a December surprise. One of the potential wild cards is the emergence of an effort to get people take delivery on December gold and silver contracts, which may or may not end up depleting the warehouse stocks to any significant degree. Just the possibility of that happening could be enough to trigger some short-term upward movement in the gold and silver price.

Brien Lundin, with over 20 years of experience in investment analysis and publishing, serves as president of Jefferson Financial and editor of Gold Newsletter . In Gold Newsletter, he covers not only resource stocks, but also the world of investing, from small-caps of every type to macroeconomics and geopolitical issues.

My Note: This article is good enough for a repeat especially now that Barak Obama is our newly elected President. – jschulmansr

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From The Vault: The Special Case For Gold – Features and Interviews – Hard Assets Investor

24 Friday Oct 2008

Posted by jschulmansr in Alternate Fuel Sources, commodities, Copper, deflation, Finance, gold, Green Energy, hard assets, inflation, Investing, investments, Latest News, Markets, oil, precious metals, silver, U.S. Dollar, Uncategorized, Water

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From The Vault: The Special Case For Gold – Features and Interviews – Hard Assets Investor

Written by Tom Vulcan   
Friday, 24 October 2008 10:18
Page 1 of 2

 

[Editor’s Note: From The Vault is a new HAI feature that periodically highlights some of the best and most timeless content on our site. In light of recent market turmoil, Tom Vulcan’s gold piece seemed appropriate.] 

 

“Water is best, but, shining like fire blazing in the night, gold stands out supreme of lordly wealth.”

                            Pindar – First Olympian Ode

 

Since the Greek poet Pindar described gold in these glowing terms in 476 BCE, its identification with wealth has changed very little over the ages.

Indeed, priced as it is now and viewed against both the increasingly ragged backdrop of the U.S. economy and current credit crunch, its association with wealth, secure (or “lordly”) wealth, is particularly strong.

Why Buy Gold?

Three of the most fundamental reasons for buying gold are the following:

  • For economic security
  • For physical security
  • Against contingencies

 

For Economic Security

Gold is an excellent long-term hedge against inflation.

In the very long term, and despite sometimes quite significant short-term price fluctuations, gold has been shown to maintain its store of value in terms of real purchasing power.1 In other words, as the value, i.e., purchasing power, of the dollar falls (and inflation goes up), so the price of gold rises.

Unlike any of the world’s currencies, each of which represents debt incurred by the relevant issuing government, gold is not a liability. And since it is not a liability, it can neither be repudiated, nor its value undermined by inflation. This stands in stark contrast to the world’s paper currencies that, printed as they are, by “fiat,” always lose value in the long term (this can, and does, also happen in the short term.)

In addition, gold has been shown not only to provide a strong hedge against a declining dollar2 (when gold is traded throughout the world it is always bought and sold in U.S. dollars, i.e., it is nominally priced in U.S. dollars), but also to be a better hedge against the dollar than other commodities.3

For Physical Security

Gold is a secure asset.

In the past, when there was a gold standard, governments banned individuals from holding gold – preventing those individuals, in effect, from holding (and preserving) their wealth beyond the control of government. As the young Alan Greenspan put it in 1966: “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold.” Now, however, it can be freely held.

Held as an asset, not only is gold liquid, but it is also subject neither to the freezes nor to the imposition of exchange controls that can, at times, threaten other asset classes and currencies. As, once again, Mr. Greenspan put it back in 1966: “It [gold] stands as a protector of property rights.”4 It has a physical security not associated with any number of other assets.

 

Against Contingencies

Gold is an excellent “crisis” hedge.

Undisputed worldwide as a store of value, gold can be a form of “insurance” both in times of crisis and when there are extreme untoward movements in other asset classes. For example, during the period of hyperinflation in Germany from 1918-24, gold maintained its purchasing power while the value of bonds and stocks were catastrophically diminished.

Set apart as it is from other commodities because of its acceptability, portability, homogeneity and indestructibility, the market in gold is both universal and highly liquid. You can buy and sell gold around the globe. Even James Bond in “From Russia with Love,” traveled with some 50 British gold sovereigns hidden in his briefcase – just in case!

What Place Should It Have In My Portfolio?

Holding gold as a strategic asset can help you diversify your portfolio.

A long-term asset portfolio needs to be diversified. Diversification helps reduce both risk and volatility. The key to diversification is a choice of assets with returns as little correlated to each other as possible. Essentially, each of your asset classes needs to march to a different tune: Movement in one should be reflected as little as possible in the movement of any other.

Since there is little correlation (it is, in fact, low to negative) between the returns on gold and on financial assets, such as equities, gold can help provide just such diversification (i.e., when financial markets fall, the price of gold tends to rise, and vice versa).

Recent research5 into the difference between gold and other assets has demonstrated that, in the long term, there is no important correlation between changes in inflation, interest rates and GDP and the returns on gold. In contrast, such macroeconomic variables are strongly correlated with returns on such financial assets as bonds and equities.

The same research has also shown that changes in such macroeconomic variables have a much greater effect on the returns on other commodities (particularly non-ferrous metals and oil) than they do on gold.

A general market decline, therefore, will not be reflected in a general decline in the price of gold. Gold will, in fact, provide protection against such declines.

In addition to reducing risk, improving a portfolio’s diversification will also help to reduce its volatility. Reducing its volatility will, in turn, often result in higher compound rates of return.

While it is more usual to look at different asset classes when building a portfolio, in the case of gold, it is certainly worth considering it as an asset class in and of itself (rather than as an individual security within the commodities asset class) and, consequently, investing in it directly.

How much gold you should add to your portfolio, however, will depend upon the risk profile of your portfolio. If, on the one hand, you have a low-risk portfolio, the inclusion of gold can help enhance its performance. On the other hand, if you have a high-risk, high-return portfolio, gold’s strong lack of correlation to the equity and bond markets could help bring stability in times of either economic turmoil or falling markets.

 

Conclusion

Since timing the market is impossible and your investment in gold is for the long run, the important thing – many people believe – is that you buy it, not when you buy it.

While the recent surge in gold prices has brought speculators into the market, and has increased the short-term correlation between equities and gold, it has done little to rattle the long-term position of the metal as a good portfolio diversifier and a safe store of value.

 

NEXT UP: Base Metals

Precious metals are pretty, but base metals are where the real action happens.  Or see below…

 

ENDNOTES

1. Harmston, S. (1998) Gold as a Store of Value, London, World Gold Council.
2. Capie, F., Mills, T. & Woods, G. (2004) Gold as a Hedge against the US Dollar, London, World Gold Council
3. Kavalis, N., (2006) Commodity Prices and the Influence of the US Dollar, London, GFMS Limited
4. Greenspan, A. (1966) Gold and Economic Freedom, The Objectivist.
5. Lawrence, C. (2003) Why is gold different from other assets? An empirical investigation, London, World Gold Council.

 

LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION
Doug Casey: The Case For Gold
Resource Investor
Gold Investing 101

Industrial Metals
Written by HardAssetsInvestor.com   
Sunday, 04 November 2007 13:13
Gold and silver may get all the glory, and look pretty, but when you want to build an economy, it’s the industrial (or base) metals that steal the show. As such, base metals have emerged as a key way for investors to tap into the rapid development of emerging economies like China. As China builds new apartment buildings and factories, it needs iron for the trusses, copper for the pipes and aluminum for the appliances.For investors just getting started, here are the most widely used base metals in the world, in order of global consumption.Steel (Iron)

The granddaddy of metals for most of the last millennium has been iron. Iron, by itself and as the major component in steel, is the most widely used metal in the world.

That would make it a great tool for investors interested in tapping into economic growth, except for one thing: There is no direct way to trade it. Unless you want to buy a few freight cars’ worth of I-beams, there’s no direct way to get exposure. This is likely to change, as the London Metal Exchange (LME) is currently working on plans for futures and OTC contracts tied to steel, but there are serious hurdles to overcome.

For starters, there are a huge variety of steel types in the market. What kinds of steel would the contracts cover? Carbon or alloy? Galvanized sheets? Cut plates? Fine grain? Atmospheric resistance? Fundamentally, a futures contract has to be based on a commodity definition that will be useful to suppliers and customers … and steel producers have been dead set against the development of a steel futures contract.

Until the LME and the producers figure it out, the best way for investors to access the steel markets is through steel-producing equities. Key players include Rio Tinto (RTP), Cia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), Mittal Steel (MT) and Nucor (NUE).

Investors can also access the broad steel equities market through the Market Vectors – Steel (AMEX: SLX) ETF, which tracks the AMEX Steel Index, which includes 36 steel-related stocks.

Aluminum

After steel, aluminum is the most widely used metal on the planet. It is one of the key ingredients in the rapid expansion of infrastructure around the world, and demand for aluminum is growing.

What is aluminum? It’s light, pliable, rust-resistant and has high conductivity. Those features make it an incredibly important metal for industrial use, particularly for the transportation industry. Your car is mostly aluminum (and plastic), from the body to the axles and maybe even the engine. And that airplane you flew on your last business trip? Without aluminum, you wouldn’t have gotten off the ground. Even those cans of soda and beer the flight attendants passed around (if you were lucky) were made from aluminum: almost a full quarter of the aluminum produced today goes into those handy little containers.

Primary aluminum is mined out of the ground as bauxite ore, changed into alumina or aluminum oxide, and then finally smelted into aluminum. Bauxite deposits are mainly found in Australia, Guinea, Brazil and Jamaica. (At least, that was the order of production in 2000, the most recently available data.) The whole process is hugely energy-intensive, which means that the price of aluminum has some tie to the price of energy. Typically, smelters are located in areas with cheap energy.

Primary (new) aluminum trades on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) with the ticker “AL,” and on the London Metals Exchange (LME) as “Primary Aluminum.” Recycled aluminum is traded as “Aluminum Alloy.”

Many investors, however, find it easier to access this market through equity plays. Key players include Alcoa (AA), Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH), Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU).

Copper

Our friend copper has been around for ages. Everyone from the early Egyptians to your neighborhood plumber has relied on copper to make the world work. Today, copper is everywhere, from the coins in your pocket to the plumbing in your house to the power lines and the electrical plant down the way. Even the cell phone in your pocket relies on copper for its intricate circuit board.

The largest market for copper is building construction (pipes and wires), followed by electronics and electrical products, transportation, industrial machinery and consumer products. Because of the huge demand from construction, copper prices tend to fluctuate on economic indicators such as U.S. housing starts, Chinese GDP growth and other macroeconomic reports. In 2006, China accounted for about 20% of the world’s consumption1 of copper, and that percentage is expected to grow. In other words, reports from The Wall St. Journal of even the smallest shifts in Asian economies can push copper prices around substantially.

Where’s it come from? Chile is the big dog, producing four times the volume in copper of the No. 2 group, the United States. Peru, Australia, Indonesia, Russia are also big players, but more than anything, you need to think about Chile.2 In 2006, global mine production was less than expected because of production problems and labor disruptions in Chile, and this kept copper at record highs. Hiccups like this are increasingly being offset by recycling, but even with the U.S. pulling 30% of its copper from recycling plants, copper futures remain hugely volatile.3 Copper spot prices rose from $0.75/lb in March 2002 to over $3/lb in March 2007.

Plastic pipes anyone?

Copper trades under the ticker “HG” on the NYMEX.

Substitutions/Copper: Aluminum can be used for electrical equipment, power cables and automobile radiators. For heat exchangers, titanium and steel are used. In plumbing applications, plastics are the common substitute.4

Key Players:

Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold (FCX), BHP Billiton (BHP)

Zinc

The fourth most popular metal in the world’s industrial beauty pageant is zinc. Like aluminum, zinc comes in two flavors: primary (coming from mines, about two-thirds of what’s used) and secondary (scrap and residues).

Most zinc is used as a galvanizing agent to prevent corrosion in iron and steel – those rough gray nails you used to put down your deck, your galvanized steel fishing boat, etc. The rest of the zinc (about 25 percent) is used as zinc compounds in all sorts of other stuff: paint, agricultural products, plastics, rubber and as a raw chemical in medicines and supplements. That “copper” penny in your pocket is, at least if it was minted after 1982, mostly zinc.

Really, zinc is a condiment in the industrial metals world, like salt in the kitchen. It hardly ever gets used by itself, but it spices up other metals and makes them better. Because of that, it has historically followed the price fluctuations of base metals at large, particularly copper. That may, however, be changing: In 2006, zinc saw rapid price increases due to low stocks at the LME, increased world demand and tight world supply.

China, which exports a great deal of zinc, continues to wield the big stick in the market, followed by Australia, Peru and North America. Zinc can be traded on the NYMEX (LZ), at the LME (Zinc) and (as of March 26, 2007) at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (TA).

Substitutions/Zinc: When looking at substitutions for zinc, you’re looking to replace what zinc helps make. Plastics, steel & aluminum substitute for galvanized sheet. For corrosion protection, paint, plastic coatings and other alloy coatings are used. There are many elements that substitute for zinc in the chemical, electronic and pigment fields.

Key Players:

BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco Ltd. (TCK).

LeadLead, as anyone who’s picked up a car battery knows, is very heavy and dense. It is also a soft and corrosion-resistant metal. While it’s been abandoned in many applications due to environmental and health concerns, it’s still a major metal in global industry. The greatest use of lead is in Sealed-Lead-Acid batteries, which has seen continued growth, particularly in uses such as uninterruptible power supplies for computer applications and in machinery (like your car). Lead is also used in lots of smaller applications: ammunition, oxides for glass and ceramics, casting metals, sheet lead, solders, coverings and caulkings.

Lead was the best-performing commodity through the first nine months of 2007.

Nickel

Behind lead is nickel. Nickel’s primary use is as an additive to make stainless steel. The aerospace and power generation industries use it in combustion turbines because of its corrosion resistance, and it finds a home in batteries, coins and other applications as well.

Nickel has been much in the news recently due to sharply rising prices and supply constraints at the LME. The LME actually intervened in the nickel markets in 2006 when supplies got too tight to meet demand, a rare occurrence for any well-functioning market. Surging demand for stainless steel in China has caused the Chinese to fire up nickel pig iron processors, which (at a relatively high cost) can create stainless steel without true nickel.

Tin

Lastly, there’s lowly tin. Tin’s been around forever and is mined around the world, but almost half of what’s used now comes from Southeast Asia. Tin is used mostly as an alloy with other metals, but also has uses as a protective coating.

Tin hit an 18-year high on the LME in 2007, as rising demand and slow-growing supply caused a classic short squeeze on the markets. The tin market continues to be tight.

Accessing The MarketsAside from buying the futures or individual company stocks, there are a few approaches investors can take to the base metals market. For steel, there’s the aforementioned Steel ETF (AMEX: SLX) from Van Eck. For aluminum and the rest, European investors can buy individual commodities futures ETFs from ETF Securities, or baskets of base metal securities as well.

Stateside, investors have an increasing number of choices as well. The best-established base metals futures basket is the PowerShares DB Base Metals ETF (AMEX: DBB), which includes exposure to copper, aluminum and zinc. Newer iPath ETNs offer focused exposure to Copper (AMEX: JJC), Nickel (AMEX: JJN) or a basket of industrial metals (AMEX: JJM), including copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel. The ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Index ETN (RJZ) offers the most diversified basket of coverage, combining precious and base metals in an ETN and holding aluminum, palladium, tin, nickel, platinum, copper, gold, zinc, silver and lead.

On the equities side, the SPDR Metals & Mining ETF (AMEX: XME) lumps in everything from steel to aluminum, gold, energy, manufacturing and other issues. The top holdings are U.S. Steel, Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold, Titanium Metals and Consol Energy.

Conclusion

Base metals aren’t glamorous. They don’t make headlines outside of the commodities markets, and aside from Jim Rogers, you aren’t going to hear pundits on CNBC talking about what a great investment lead is. But here’s the dirty little secret about base metals: They have been by far the best-performing sector of the commodities markets over the past three, five and 10 years. Best by a mile.

NEXT UP: Agricultural Commodities

Exploring the softer side of the commodities market.

LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION

The argument for base metals
The argument against base metals
How iron works
Copper Development Network
All About Aluminum
Lead Soldiers On

Agricultural Markets

Timber Markets: Strong As An Oak

Water: The Ultimate Commodity

Alternative Energy: Can It Compete?

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Startup Turns CO2 Into Fuel | Autopia from Wired.com

22 Wednesday Oct 2008

Posted by jschulmansr in Achievement, Alternate Fuel Sources, Finance, Green Energy, Investing, investments, Markets, Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Alternate Fuel Sources, alternative Energy, Carbon Sciences, co2, ethane, global warming, green, Green Energy, greenhouse gas, methane, propane

Startup Turns CO2 Into Fuel | Autopia from Wired.com

Researchers developing alternatives to fossil fuels are working with everything from algae to babassu oil to corn, but a California company says it can recycle carbon dioxide into fuel.

Carbon Sciences claims it has developed a way of using the CO2 emitted during the combustion of coal, oil and other hydrocarbons to create transportation fuels like gasoline and jet fuel. Should Carbon Sciences — or any of the other firms working on similar projects — accomplish this on a large scale, it could bring a reduction in CO2 emissions as well as an abundant supply of renewable fuel.

“We are very excited about our novel process to transform CO2 into fuel,” says company CEO Derek McLeish. “Based on our research to date, we believe that we will be able to demonstrate our technology within the next several months with a prototype that can convert a stream of CO2 into an immediately flammable liquid fuel.”

Fossil fuels are comprised of chains of hydrogen and carbon atoms called, appropriately, hydrocarbons. The more carbon atoms in the chain, the greater its energy content. Gasoline, for example, has seven to 10 carbon atoms, while jet fuel has 10 to 16. When those hydrocarbons are burned, they release carbon dioxide. Theoretically, the carbon dioxide could be split and its carbon atoms used to make more hydrocarbons. But CO2 is very stable and breaking it up requires so much heat and pressure that it has not been economically viable. Carbon Sciences says it has solved that problem. “We’re very excited by what we’ve seen in the lab,” McLeish told CNN. “We’ve had some promising results.”

The company says its “C02-to-Fuel” technology uses CO2 to create ethane, propane and methane, three run-of-the mill hydrocarbons used to make high-grade gasoline and other fuels. The key to the process is biocatalysis, a process where natural catalysts are used to perform chemical reactions. Biocatalysis is a more energy efficient and cost-effective way to break down CO2, making the possibility of a large-scale ramp up economically feasible.

The approach uses a low energy biocatalytic hydrolysis process that splits water molecules into hydrogen atoms and hydroxide ions, says Dr. Naveed Aslam, the company’s chief technology officer and inventor of the process. The hydrogen is used to create hydrocarbons, while the free electrons in the hydroxide are used to fuel the biocatalytic process, he says. The process “is based on natural organic chemistry processes that occur in all living organisms where carbon atoms, extracted from CO2, and hydrogen atoms extracted from H2O, are combined to create hydrocarbon molecules using biocatalysts and small amounts of energy.”

As for collecting the CO2, Carbon Sciences won’t just erect a big filter in the sky and hope for the best. The idea is to set up shop alongside oil refineries and and coal plants and capture the CO2 such facilities generate.

Carbon Sciences isn’t the only outfit seeking viable ways to recycle carbon dioxide. Scientists at Sandia National Laboratory have developed a way to use sunlight to convert CO2 into fuel. Newcastle University researchers can use CO2 to create chemical compounds called cyclic carbonates. The compounds are used in many solvents and also could be used as an additive to make gasoline burn more efficiently.

The potential benefits of this technology should not be understated. Not only would it capture greenhouse gases otherwise released into the atmosphere, but it would create a renewable source of fuel. “This is about closing the cycle,” Ellen Stechel, manager of Sandia’s Fuels and Energy Transitions department, told us earlier this year as she discussed the lab’s Sunlight to Petrol project. “Right now our fossil fuels are emitting CO2. This would help us manage and reduce our emissions and put us on the path to a carbon-neutral energy system.”

Michael North, a professor of organic chemistry at Newcastle University, notes that renewable sources of hydrocarbons would benefit much more than the transportation sector. “People don’t seem to realize that ten percent of everything that comes out of an oil well doesn’t go to the fuel industry — it drives the chemical industry,” he tells CNN. “Not only are we facing a fuel crisis, but the entire chemical industry is likely to cease to exist. So we desperately need to find ways of making chemical materials out of CO2.”

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Dare Something Worthy Today! – Why aren’t We Using This Technology Now?

19 Tuesday Jun 2007

Posted by jschulmansr in Alternate Fuel Sources, Dare, joyner, Jschulmansr, Something, Today, Water, Worthy

≈ Comments Off on Dare Something Worthy Today! – Why aren’t We Using This Technology Now?

Dare Something Worthy Today! – Why aren’t We Using This Technology Now?

This was sent to me from my good friend Mark Joyner.
Mark Joyner’s Atomic Mind Bombs Blog: See his blog post yesterday June 18th 2007:
http://www.markjoyner.name/logs/

I too ask the question if it is as easy as this and it has been proven,
then why aren’t we using this technology now?

Check Out these 2 Videos:

The First Video a toy car and 100% water for fuel…

Now, you should know that there are a great many full-size hydrogen fuel cell cars already in existence, but there are “problems.”

First, the cars are ridiculously-expensive.

Next, many of the hydrogen-based fuel initiatives right now rely on fossil fuels as a source for harvesting the hydrogen from water. (Yeah, I know.)

Finally, there is the issue of distilling the water required for hydrogen production. The fuelling station I have requires distilled water. Tap water will destroy it.

Are these limitations too difficult to surmount?

I don’t think so …

The cost of the cars, obviously, can be brought down radically with mass production.

As for where to get the hydrogen, why don’t we create a massive network of renewable energy generators (solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, etc …), start mass producing hydrogen, and store it?

If you think about it, we could have solar panels on our roofs that are constantly generating hydrogen and storing it. Then your home could run off a fuel cell, too.

As for the distilled water, well, solar powered water distillation technology already exists.

So, what’s the hold up?

Why aren’t we aggressively switching over to a new infrastructure immediately?

I mean – immediately. Not “maybe in 10 years or so …”

The Second Video: Man Runs Normal Car on 50% Water Based Fuel…

Again Source: Mark Joyner’s Atomic Mind Bombs Blog: May 13th 2007:
http://www.markjoyner.name/logs/

I would like to get opinions from as many people as possible about this before commenting further (please pass it on). Please leave replies below:

To head off a few questions …

1. No, I have no financial interest in this company whatsoever (I wish I did!). I heard about them through a local news program and decided to investigate for myself. In the course of getting to know each other we’ve all become fast friends (really cool, super-intelligent, and laid-back guys).

2. Yes, I know this experiment was not ideal, but it’s the best I could do on short notice. We’ll be doing it again in the near future under more controlled conditions (at an ASTM certified lab in the U.S.).

As Mark put it “So, what’s the hold up?

Why aren’t we aggressively switching over to a new infrastructure immediately?”

I mean – immediately. Not “maybe in 10 years or so …”

“Is it the cost?”

“Surely we can all re-allocate some of our “defense” budgets to the creation of an infrastructure that will remove one of the root causes of war?”

“Ah, that’s just crazy talk.”

Not So Crazy if you ask me! – jschulmansr

***This is something I too will keep you updated on in the future!***
jschulmansr

Dare Something Worthy Today – Call for Increased Mainstream Hydrgen Fuel Cell Use!

As Always,Be Blessed,Stay Blessed,Share Your Blessings with All!

Dare Something Worthy Today!

JSchulmansr

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