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Flirting With Disaster!

28 Thursday May 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Iran, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NASDQ, natural gas, NGC, Nuclear Energy, Nuclear Weapons, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, rare earth metals, recession, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, SWC, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, uranium, Uranium Miners, volatility, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

     Key Test Today! Stocks are Flirting with disaster, 8268 (DJIA) is the neckline of a head and shoulders. If (DJIA) closes beneath that, then we are definitely starting the next leg back down. Nothing to hold the freefall except some support at 8000 (DJIA) and then secondary confirmation of a new down move if breaks the next support at (DJIA) 7840, 7800, and then 7550. Take your profits now before you ride the DJIA right back down again.

     Gold and Silver however are poised to take off! If Gold successfully closes above $980 then next stop – new ALL time highs. As I mentioned yesterday hre is what I see for Gold. I predict that Gold will break $978- $980 and push up to approximately $1075 to $1090 on the first leg. We will see a normal retracement down to $950- $975 and then blast off to $1150 -$1250. I personally think with the hyper-inflation shoe about to drop, coupled with the remaining half of the derivative crunch. We can easily see $2250 to $2500 Gold by the end of the year. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious metals especially the junior and mid-tier producers. There are still companies out there selling at or below book value.

     In case you missed it yesterday here is the stock tip that I was offered along with an advisory service costing $297 year. This is the stock in their “special report”. just came across a sweet little play in the cobalt industry, supplies are dwindling fast and there will be a shortage just at the time this company comes on line with production. This company will have the only high grade cobalt production in the United States and will be able to supply approximately 12-14% of Cobalt needs for the USA. If you check out what Cobalt is used for you will understand why this stock has the potential to be a Grand Slam. Production is anticipated to be approximately 1525 tons per year with a 10yr life based on current reserves. I just received an offer to buy this tip along with an advisory service for $297 yr. I’ll give it to you for free. That’s just the kind of guy I am, LOL! The name of the company is Formation Capital Corp. Trading symbol (FCACF). I just picked up a bunch @ .35 cents/share, but as always do your due diligence, read the prospectus and company reports. If nothing else put (FCACF) on your watch list / radar. – Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you 

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

 Now For some reports…

Jim Sinclair: 9 Immediate Predictions For Gold – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

Jim Sinclair is the doyen of gold experts. It is interesting to see a very clear timeframe for the gold price posted on his website yesterday:

  1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really).
  2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
  3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates.
  4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
  5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
  6. t is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL.
  7. The main selling takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation.
  8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event.
  9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.

“Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5,000”, adds Mr. Sinclair whose predictions are not always right, and who got similarly carried away last summer.

But there is the old mantra in forecasting that if you repeat something often enough then it will be bound to happen in the end.

And to be fair to Mr. Sinclair, the gold positive scenario stacking up right now does look unstoppable.

===================================================

My Note: Sounds pretty darn close to my own predictions- Amazing! 

-jschulmansr

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Gold Battle Lines Drawn at $1000 – Again —Seeking Alpha

By: James West of Midas Letter

Here we go again. The forces of legitimate money versus the incumbent purveyors of the candy floss economy squared off at the $1,000 an ounce line over which yet another battle will be fought. Arrayed against either side are formidable new elements and tried and true old ones. As usual, the first volley has been catapulted over the walls of the hucksters by the defenders of the essential timeless truth of gold’s naturally stored value against the counterfeit paper currencies.

The liabilities of the enemy have increased, and the short positions in the COMEX market are sufficiently stacked that the big bank defenders simply cannot allow gold to win decisively. G7 governments are allied against gold to a man, while emerging economic behemoths China and Russia stand in opposition.

In particular, China’s revelations that it has been in a continuous accumulation mode for the last several years and is now the fifth largest sovereign reserve of gold has created an impetus in the gold camp that has been seen lacking in the past. Institutional and sovereign investment entities now perceive a floor in the gold price based on this information, and one must beg the question as to why China would make such a revelation when it threatens to undermine the value of its $2 trillion in U.S. debt holdings.

China has also been careful to avoid buying gold on the international market, for fear, it says, of creating a stampede into the precious metals that would immediately increase the cost of its stated intention to continue accumulating gold towards the backing of the yuan (renmibi) as a global reserve currency.

Yet that is precisely what has happened. Ostensibly, the justification for tipping their hand exists in the fact that they’ve resigned themselves to the fact that selling poison toys and pet foods to Americans in exchange for a currency that loses value like light into a black hole is an acceptable if imperfect transaction. With $50 billion a year in interest payments from the U.S., they can hedge the risk buy using it to buy gold.

With the perceived floor arguably at $850, downside risk is limited in gold far more so than in U.S. treasuries, which, if mainstream media is to be taken as remotely credible, is the current favorite of safe haven investors.

‘Safe Haven’ is about to get painted with same fragrant brush as ‘AAA-rated’ investments.

Goldbugs are salivating at the prospect of vindication, but seasoned veterans of the war know that the governments and central banks arrayed against gold are not fair fighters. Since the largest players in the futures market occupy both sides of the contract, and never take delivery of the physical gold, they can orchestrate a perpetual negative sentiment towards gold by driving the future price downward by simply amping up the short positions, thus making gold appear poised for a sell-off. This has been standard operating procedure for the last decade, and it is interesting to note that ever-bigger short positions are having less influence over shorter durations before the bulls shrug off the flimsy performance and take gold higher.

Critics and observers of this U.S. Dollar image management program point to the fact that such activity, while shoring up demand for U.S. Dollar debt in the short term, effectively undermines the entire global economy, and is among the fundamental causes of financial crises such as the housing collapse and the whole current global financial fiasco.

Proponents of this manipulation, who are increasingly legion in number, correctly predict an inevitable bursting of the damn catalyzed by investment demand overwhelming the short positions, forcing them to buy and cover to limit losses, which will, in itself, stimulate the gold price even further.

With the limited oversight and feeble reporting standards of the CFTC, the ploy is facilitated by complicit (or ignorant) regulators who ensure data is obfuscated and disclosure limited. It has been this collective effort on the part of the Dollar Defenders that continuously defeats gold’s advances, repeatedly castrating the bulls and sending them whimpering to lick their wounds and regroup.

But China is now leading the charge, and the bet is that they’re willing to forgo the lost value of their USD holdings to decisively undermine the global reserve currency once and for all and replace it with the Yuan, a move that would effectively mark the beginning in the shift of the global balance of power from west to east.

The United States, overextended militarily across the Middle East and Asia, with new fronts threatening to open in Iran and Pakistan, is perilously close to an international nervous breakdown. China’s opportunity is to ride to the rescue bearing smiles and steamed pork buns while dividing up what is left of the American industrial asset pool.

Our leadership of the last decade (or more accurately, absence thereof), eager to lubricate the workings of multinational financial interests, have inadvertently played into the patient hands of their biggest creditor by prostituting the national currency shamelessly to the point where every nation in the world can see what used up piece of spent jet trash the old USD has become.

While mainstream media dismisses the idea of the Yuan replacing the dollar as the international monetary standard, those of us who have tuned out at the perception management program on CNN recognize the event as halfway accomplished.

The truly explosive moment for gold will occur when the Chinese, at their discretion, decide to spring the trap, and abandon USD completely in favor of gold, suddenly spiking the price of gold straight north in tandem with the complete collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Don’t pay any attention to the second rate hacks trying to claim credit for predicting the fall…it’s been predicted repeatedly throughout history from Nostradamus to Roubini. Any student of economic history with 20/20 vision could see this coming, and here it is. “I told you so” is a waste of time. Who’s offering a solution?

Whether or not this particular battle at the Great Wall of $1,000 an ounce is the mother of all battles remains to be seen. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and while G7 governments collude to retain power, the unforeseeable is the greatest threat to gold.

That being said, veteran observers are optimistic, to say the least.

According to Bill Murphy, intrepid soldier of gold wars and standard bearer for the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee,

 

The Gold Cartel is giving it all they have no, as evidenced by the sharply rising gold open interest on the Comex … up some 23,000 contracts on Wednesday and Thursday. They are doing all they can to counter new spec buying.

My hunch is the next time we see $1,000, and that could be very soon, gold ought to take off from there, giving us more upside dynamic daily moves. The reasons to own physical gold are off the charts … HUGE investment demand, shrinking visible central bank supply (unrelated to the cabal), shrinking mine supply, shrinking dollar, concerns over sovereign wealth debt, a horrible US economy, and a US printing press that is going flat out and will have to for some time to come.

In my opinion, all gold has to do is to stay over $1,000 for a few days, and then all kinds of bells and whistles go off.

 

Bill is not the only one who thinks the breakthrough is at hand. Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com, himself a historically prescient oracle of market crashes agrees and warns that the stock market will be the first casualty of the new financial reality.

 

If you take a look at the dollar and the long bond, it looks as if they jumped off a cliff. This isn’t gold going up, it’s the dollar and bonds going down. When the market wakes up the stock market is going to take a giant dump. No more fake rally.

 

Investors by now should be well equipped to read the writing on the wall. Whether gold breaks through $1,000 and holds there, charts new territory at much higher levels, or is beaten back down through the offices of JP Morgan (JPM), HSBC (HBC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), is irrelevant.

Gold producer stocks are up, on average, over 22% this year in the Midas Model Portfolios, while intermediate producers and close-to-production juniors have piled on gains ranging from 20 to 200%, all since January this year.

You won’t hear anybody pointing that fact out on television, and you won’t hear that from your broker, in most cases. But the lesson is clear. Gold bullion is the place to be for wealth preservation, and gold producers and explorers is where risk capital is going to see utterly stupendous gains this year.

If you buy the hype of Wall Street and Washington and wade into the general equities markets, you have nobody to blame but yourself for the heavy losses you will surely sustain.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 Gold vs Silver: There Is No Debate — Seeking Alpha

By: Market Sniper of We Just Trade

It is mildly amusing that when the precious metals markets are in confirmed uptrends, the perennial debate of whether it is best to own gold or silver always comes to the fore.

Both gold and silver, historically, have been money (merely utility in exchange). Gold in nature is approximately 15 times as scarce as silver. All the gold mined since the dawn of man, if molded into a cube, is said to fit inside a baseball diamond. Silver would nearly fill the stadium. China, now the world’s largest gold producer, had a silver standard as gold was more plentiful in China than silver, a bias that the west took full advantage of up through the 1870s. Silver imports by the Spanish Empire from their New World holdings were so large that it collapsed the European silver market. England, then on a bi-metalic standard, quickly switched to a pure gold standard. The Spanish Empire never recovered from the experience.

In the United States, the debate raged incessantly as to how the ratio would be “fixed” after the discovery of the Comstock Lode with western mining interests’ best known champion, Senator William Jennings Bryan, being the foremost proponent of a lower ratio. Seems it is an old debate. The good news is, you can own both. If/when the world returns to honest, stable money, you will need both: gold for the larger acquisitions and silver to make change.

While we await such an event, ratio trade the two metals to increase your holdings of precious metals.The ratio fluctuates wildly over time. In the 1970s and 1980s I used 28:1 and 40:1 as points that I would switch. At 40:1, I would be in silver. When the ratio dropped down to 28:1, I would exchange silver holdings for gold. Each time I switched, my stack of precious metals would increase in size even after dealing with the spread.

Find a precious metals dealer who will work with you on that. You maybe able to locate one that will only charge the spread on one of the metals and not both when you switch. Since then, the ratio has moved up. At one point it was even at 100:1. I now use 45:1 and 70:1 as switch points. See your tax accountant as to the benefits of such a program. Think 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange.

For those who do not want to break the rear axle of your automobile moving your silver when it comes time to switch, think about using ETFs that only reflect the price of the two metals. There are a variety of ways to accomplish this, from being in just one or the other to being long one and short the other. IF your objective is to accumulate the actual physical metals, do not use ETFs as a substitute for physical ownership. Rather, take profits from your switching trades and purchase the actual metals themselves. Gold vs. silver? No debate. Accumulate both.

Disclosure: long physical silver and gold

===================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 ==================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

Good Investing!–  jschulmansr

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Has World War III Started?

09 Friday Jan 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in agricultural commodities, alternate energy, Austrian school, banking crisis, banks, Barack Obama, bear market, Bollinger Bands, bull market, capitalism, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, communism, Copper, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, depression, diamonds, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, economic, economic trends, economy, Finance, financial, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gold, gold miners, hard assets, heating oil, How To Invest, How To Make Money, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, mining companies, mining stocks, Moving Averages, natural gas, Nuclear Weapons, oil, palladium, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, rare earth metals, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Saudi Arabia, Sean Rakhimov, Siliver, silver, silver miners, small caps, socialism, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stocks, Technical Analysis, timber, Today, U.S. Dollar, uranium, volatility, warrants, Water

≈ Comments Off on Has World War III Started?

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agricultural commodities, alternate energy, Austrian school, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands, bull market, capitalism, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, communism, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, depression, diamonds, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, economic, economic trends, economy, financial, Forex, futures, futures markets, gold, gold miners, hard assets, heating oil, India, inflation, investments, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, mining companies, Moving Averages, natural gas, oil, palladium, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, rare earth metals, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Saudi Arabia, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, socialism, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Technical Analysis, timber, U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, Water

Has World War III already started? According to Marc Faber it has! Check out his interview. Next do you think the government can lose? According to this pundit not only will it lose it is going to lose big! Finally, for years now China has been coming to the rescue by buying Treasuries and US Debt, what will happen when they and other countries stop? Continuation of series from yesterday’s post. Just In! Peter Schiff Interviwed on Russian TV- Get Prepared!  adjust your portfolios and if you own Precious Metals hang on for the ride of your life!- Good Investing!- jschulmansr

Marc Faber on the Economy, Gold, WWIII – Seeking alpha

By: Tim Iacono of Iacono Research

Another good interview with Dr. Marc Faber, this one over at Bloomberg where he’s been a regular for many years (recent appearances at the likes of CNBC are somewhat unusual as he tends to go against conventional wisdom, something that abounds at CNBC).
IMAGE

Click to play in a new window

There’s lots of good stuff in this one – the outlook for the global economy, oil, gold, base metals, natural resource stocks, World War III having already started…

On the subject of alternatives to the government solutions for the current problems, he was asked how he expected the populace to stand for the government doing nothing?

That’s the problem of society. If people can not accept the downside to capitalism, then they should become socialists and then they have a planned economy. They should go to eastern Europe twenty years ago and to Russia and China for the last 70 years.

How do you tell that to somebody in Detroit who’s losing his home today?

 

 

 

Why is he losing his home? Because of government intervention. The government – the Federal Reserve – kept interest rates artificially low and created the biggest housing bubble, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. That is what I’d explain to the worker in Detroit.

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How the Federal Government will Lose in 2009 – Seeking Alpha

By: Rob Viglione of The Freedom Factory

Through a combination of incompetence and greed, the federal government has placed itself in a position of checkmate. There is no way to finance its budget deficits without devaluing the dollar or causing interest rates to rise. With $10.6 trillion in debt, $8.5 trillion in new money created or given away in 2008, and multiple years of trillion dollar deficits planned by Obama, government has no way to fund its extravagances without either printing a lot more money or borrowing unprecedented sums.

This means that either Treasury bonds will crash, or the dollar will suffer significant devaluation relative to foreign exchange or precious metals, especially gold.

TV Does Great Interview With Peter Schiff (Russian TV, That Is)

=====================================================

Remember Dare Something Worthy Today Too!

 

Market forces are telling the world to shed unproductive assets and shrink capacity, yet central banks and governments around the world, in particular the U.S., are refusing to listen. Rather than allow markets to snap back to sustainable equilibrium from previously artificial highs, the federal government clings to the notion that forcibly shuffling resources, propping up asset prices, and diluting the money supply will magically save the day.

There are consequences to everything. The consequences of shuffling resources (taxing productive ventures and doling out those resources to failing ones, i.e. bailouts) are stunted growth for good businesses and propagation of bad ones. Artificially propping up asset prices means that those who are generally less competent remain the custodians of society’s capital, and diluting the money supply inflates aways everyone’s wealth over time, particularly harming the poor and middle class.

For decades the federal government has gotten away with this reshuffle and inflate game, but the pawns are drowning, the rooks helpless, and the knights ready to turn on the King. Perhaps this is overly dramatic. Clearly, I doubt the capability of the Federal Reserve, Congress, and Obama to “fix” the economy; rather, I strongly believe they are destroying it by forcing us all to drink this Keynesian Kool-Aid. However, whether or not the economy recovers amidst this historic central government action, there are two phenomena we can exploit to our advantage:

  • Short the US dollar
  • Short US Treasuries

In “When will the great Treasury unwinding begin?” I show how government debt has been bid to unsustainable levels and will likely fall. The one concern I see stated all too often is that the Federal Reserve will keep buying Treasuries to artificially depress interest rates. This will, it is claimed, keep bond prices inflated. The one undeniable counter to this is that government must somehow fund its $1.2 trillion estimated 2009 deficit. It cannot do this by issuing and then buying the same bonds. It can only raise revenue by selling bonds to other parties, or by diluting the money supply by cranking up the printing presses. There are no other options. There you have it – we have the government in checkmate!

The likely outcome is that they will try to do both. That is why I am heavily shorting both 30-Year Treasury bonds and the dollar. Both assets will likely lose as the government becomes increasingly desperate and the world’s biggest buyers realize there are better alternatives available. Make your bets now before it becomes treasonous to bet against Big Brother!

Disclosure: Long UDN, short TLT, long GLD.

==============================================

Five New Forces to Drive Gold Higher – Seeking Alpha

By: James West of The Midas Letter

Gold naysayers habitually point to the relatively weak performance of gold relative to the broader market over the last 5 years. Given the market today, that argument is increasingly wrong, and the naysayers are soon to either admit their mistake, or pretend that they were never naysayers at all. That’s because during the last 3 months, five major new forces have emerged to compound the previous strong drivers of the gold price up to now.

These new forces are as follows:

  1. China has stopped buying U.S. debt.
    An interesting piece in the New York Times today signals that China, up until now the biggest buyer of U.S. Treasuries and bonds issued by Fannie and Freddie, is moving towards an end to that policy. China holds over US$1 trillion of such paper, and as interest rates collapse, there is less and less incentive for them to buy American.China has made several adjustments to programs that used to give banks and other financial institutions within the country incentive to buy U.S. assets, which means essentially that these same customers for assets will now be looking for Chinese products.The effect this will have on gold is two-fold. In the first place, reduced demand for U.S. debt will hamper Obama’s plans to keep printing money, because the one limiting factor that still seems to be respected in terms of how much paper can be printed, is the idea that there must be a counterparty to every issuance of T-Bills to warrant continued printing. Theoretically, less demand for T-Bills will force a rise in interest rates to attract investors. But that does not appear forthcoming, which will make the U.S. dollar weak relative to other currencies – especially gold.The second effect is that by eliminating incentives for Chinese banks to acquire U.S. denominated assets, investors there will divert more funds to holding gold as a hedge against their current U.S. dollar holdings, which will be diminishing in value.
  2. Future discoveries of gold deposits will diminish dramatically.
    The biggest source of gold ounce inventory for major gold producers is the discoveries made by the several thousand juniors who scour the earth in search of favorable geology. With the collapse in base metals prices, many of these juniors are under increasing pressure to consolidate and downsize, and many more will disappear altogether.That means less money going into gold exploration, and that means the number of new discoveries that can be acquired by majors is going to go down sharply in the coming years. In theory, as gold continues to outperform all other asset classes, there will be a rush back into junior gold exploration, but that won’t happen until gold is taken much higher and investment demand for it soars.
  3. Existing by-product gold production will fall sharply
    In copper, zinc and other base metals mines around the world, gold occurs in metallic deposits as a by-product of some other dominant mineral. In the United States, 15 percent of gold production is derived from mining copper, lead and zinc ores.With the collapse in prices for these metals, the by-product production of gold is most often insufficient to justify the continued operation of the mine profitably, and it is likely that a significant amount of this by-product gold production will cease along with the shutdown of these operations. The result will be less gold production from existing operations, contributing to the now even faster growing gap between supply and demand.
  4. Gold is becoming mainstream
    One of the biggest contributors to gold’s unpopularity as a main street investment is that it has been mercilessly derided and ridiculed by mainstream investment media and institutions. There is very little opportunity for an investment advisor to insinuate himself into a gold purchase transaction, since most anybody who wants to hold the metal can visit their local bullion exchange or mint and buy as much as they’d like. Because the massive investment institutions that dominate the investment advisory business can’t make a fee out of advising you to buy gold, they try to convince you to purchase other asset classes which their firm has either originated or is a participant in a syndication of investment banks selling such products.Thanks to the widespread coverage of the questionable integrity of these complex securities, and since many main street investors have been burned by their investment advisors (they feel), there is increasing main street advice being doled out to buy gold. One need only search Google news on any given day to discover that headlines critical of gold are now replaced with headlines singing its praises.
  5. Gold is the best performing asset class of the decade
    Now that the global financial meltdown has got up a head of steam, investors are hard pressed to find any investment that has performed well over the last ten years as consistently as gold. The chart below outlines this performance and appears here courtesy of James Turk’s GoldMoney.com.
Gold Performance: 2001-2008 (click to enlarge)
Gold Performance 2001 - 2008

As you can see, any investment still returning an average of 10 – 17 percent is a winner, compared to everything else you can generate a chart for. As this intelligence permeates the none-too-quick popular investment imagination, and, combined with the other 4 factors, gold is going to be where the world’s next crop of millionaires is minted.

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Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Arutz Sheva

30 Thursday Oct 2008

Posted by jschulmansr in Iran, Israel, Nuclear Energy, Nuclear Weapons

≈ Comments Off on Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Arutz Sheva

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Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Arutz Sheva

by Hillel Fendel

IsraelNN.com) A weekend 5.0 Richter earthquake in Iran was actually a nuclear bomb test, says an Iranian nuclear scientist claiming to be working on the project.

The report is an Israel Insider exclusive.

This past Saturday night, southern Iran experienced what was reported as a significant earthquake – a seismic event measuring 5.0 on the Richter scale. Its epicenter was just north of the strategic Straits of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Abu Dhabi and Oman and which is the gateway to the Persian Gulf.

The report quotes an Iranian nuclear scientist who claims to be working in uranium enrichment for the project, and who said that the “quake” was acutally an undergound nuclear bomb test.

Israel Insider adds that the test/quake was actually the second in a series. Nine days ago, a 4.8 Richter scale event occurred, with its epicenter only five kilometers away from the weekend tremor.

The Israel Insider source reports that two nuclear rockets are currently ready – and are intended for use against Israel in the coming months.

If the report is correct, it would belie previous speculation that Iran would not begin nuclear testing until it had more nuclear-bomb production capability.

The geographical location of the test has several advantages. It is exposed to significant seismic activity, which could serve to mask nuclear tests; it is believed to be close to Iran’s nuclear development facility; delivery and transport of material and personnel can be effected easily through the Hormuz Strait; and Iranian enemies would hesitate to bomb the area because that would threaten the flow of a substantial percentage of the world’s oil.

Reuters reports Thursday morning that Iran has begun building a line of naval bases along its southern coast and up to the Straits of Hormuz.

 

My Note: If this is true then Israel will have no choice but to attack soon! If that happens there is no telling how high Oil and Precious Metals will go! Might be time for a little portfolio insurance/protection… jschulmansr

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